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salesforce.com, inc. Message Board

rastarich 81 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 10:52 AM Member since: Dec 22, 1998
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  • Reply to

    all in again

    by rastarich Mar 25, 2015 9:45 AM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 27, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    And out again. I support gay rights but I believe that any controversy is a bad thing in the short short term. Long term this will blow over.
    I wonder whether a lot of people decided to buy today out of a feeling of solidarity? Not strictly logical but then neither are people.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Sold short $6,725 shears this morning at $7.35!

    by mralfa Mar 26, 2015 8:13 AM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 26, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    seems to be stalling in the 7.50-7.70 area. Over a quarter of the float has traded today! IMO profit-taking is over & so should be your short.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rastarich rastarich Mar 26, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Burn rate has been approx $2 million/month. Plenty of time before they need to raise cash.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    all in again

    by rastarich Mar 25, 2015 9:45 AM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 26, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    I cannot see it that way. But that's because I expect Wave to do amazing numbers that will blow everybody away and lead to significant new highs.

    In fact, I am back again, not quite all-in, at 65.10 . That was me pre-market! Check the volume and see proof that I am not a big player. This time I am willing to hold if the tide goes against me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    all in again

    by rastarich Mar 25, 2015 9:45 AM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 25, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    and out again. Owch.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rastarich by rastarich Mar 25, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    just cannot resist a bargain at 66.76

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Pretty major failure to break 70.

    by benchmarkvit Mar 21, 2015 12:12 AM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 23, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    Absolutely yes, but LE has no ammunition. It will look good for a while as he converts his legacy customers to cloud and claims a lot of new cloud business. But it's the same old warmed-over mishmash of acquired apps. He should merge with CA.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    For the scorekeepers

    by robynrokn Mar 20, 2015 11:48 AM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 20, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    Do you want him to sell faster, or slower, or at the same rate, which has been his behavior for many years? What would be the frequency and size that you would find not-ridiculous?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rastarich rastarich Mar 20, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    Perhaps discounting is accounted as a marketing cost. Makes sense to me but IDK if it is so. The actual cash flow may be a better indicator of profitability.
    Salesforce says that the seven-figure-deals (bigger deals) count is increasing. Duration and seat-count could drive discounts.
    Benioff may be a nice guy, but when an initial discounted agreement expires, Salesforce will have better pricing power with that client, other things being equal.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rastarich rastarich Mar 18, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    I would never dismiss the most-successful database company ever. I am long ORCL. But your post ...
    Wrong, Salesforce is far more than that. Wrong, legacy products cannot just be delivered over the cloud, it require new products.
    Assuming the numbers are correct, Oracle is seeing good success. i would expect that ORCL can easily sell DaaS to legacy database users. (It may reduce ORCLs margins, but keep customers "in the fold".) It sounds like their ERP cloud product is their big winner, which is a niche where Salesforce has no product. I would bet dollars to donuts that ERP is Benioff's next target. I would also bet that Ellison is prepared to cut prices to gain business.
    In any case, cloud is a huge market, TAM is maybe half of the sum of the world's IT budgets. Both Oracle and Salesforce can prosper, and SugarCRM too.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • As I just said, and now repeat, competition has been ineffective. At Oracle they are toasting to lots of new cloud business last quarter.
    One good quarter is not enough to compete when you are years behind.
    Next quarter, after Wave "hits the beach", CRM's new business signing will easily swamp ORCL's. I hope! If we do not hear from Larry again, we will know what happened.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Large numbers strike again

    by rastarich Mar 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 17, 2015 5:06 PM Flag

    I haven't seen SFDC "project" any such thing but you have your own unique lenses. Brean was very negative IMO, and will be justified in in crowing if they turn out to be right.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Large numbers strike again

    by rastarich Mar 17, 2015 12:27 PM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 17, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    I interpret it as very negative comments. Stating a target that is 5% higher, for a growth company, is a severe diss. And so is "hold". I didn't notice the "paid PR" to which you point.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • From the newswires:
    In a report published Monday, Brean Capital analyst Sarah Hindlian initiated coverage of salesforce_cm,... Hindlian noted that ... the nature of the "law of large numbers" that dictates growth eventually slows.

    Analysts (and people here) said the same thing years ago. But SFDC continues to defy the "law". How? Why?

    The "law" comes from the quite real factors of 1) market saturation and 2) competition and 3) corporate senescence. In the case of SFDC: 1) none of the products has over 50% market share yet, and also 1) the real market is all of IT, not just today's product lineup - so, no saturation yet; 2) there is a huge moat to cross, billions of dollars of infrastructure and development and business process design, and although the others have the billions, there is internal corporate politics - the executives of the money-making legacy products are not motivated to fund their own replacements - so, competition has been ineffective; 3) IMO, senescence is an unsolved problem - it helps that SFDC is new and hires youth (legally, one hopes) - it helps that SFDC compensates with stock instead of cash - it helps that SFDC keeps things fresh and interesting - but eventually SFDC will be a company composed of multi-millionaires who may well be disinclined to put in 80-hour weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    All In

    by rastarich Mar 16, 2015 9:48 AM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 17, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    People making billions have no choice but to live near work. But the wealthy people there forbid the building of housing. Eventually the people there will force changes in policy that allow housing, and the price will come down 50%.
    OTOH, CRM is worth as much as any other IT company, so it will go up.
    But not 2% per day. I cashed in on yesterday's all-in buy for a 2% gain, looking for a chance to get back in lower.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    All In

    by rastarich Mar 16, 2015 9:48 AM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 16, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    People say CRM is overvalued but IMO those houses are overvalued!

  • rastarich by rastarich Mar 16, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    Marching upward here in a spike. Is this bull for real? Get out of the way!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rastarich by rastarich Mar 16, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    Why did I just buy a ton of CRM? Because the company is way better than it was. Spring 15 is the most significant release in years.

    TAM has doubled due to the Analytics product alone.

    The Event Monitoring feature in Sprint 15 release is the best anywhere. Every compliance department will want this. And Compliance departments get Budget $.

    The External Objects feature of Spring 15 hugely increases the TAM in its own right. An integration path, and an easier migration path, is available now for all enterprises burdened with legacy systems. Watch enterprise sales zoom this quarter and next (longer sales cycle for bigger deals).

    And, it seems to be done with the partial retrace of the spike, it should head to 70 again promptly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Heading to 62?

    by rastarich Mar 6, 2015 12:35 PM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 14, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    One could say, two years ago 40 was a low price. Since then revenues are higher by 70% and margins are better. So 64 is likely to be a low price now. Of course this ignores non-numerical factors but I would argue that those are mostly better than two years ago. The exception is, more competitors, but they still are ineffective.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Heading to 62?

    by rastarich Mar 6, 2015 12:35 PM
    rastarich rastarich Mar 14, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    agree, i think we had a squeeze, but i see no catalyst for another squeeze before next earnings.

    I have enough, overweight as usual, and I'd be happy to get more at lower prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CRM
66.22-0.59(-0.88%)12:37 PMEDT