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salesforce.com, inc. Message Board

rastarich 135 posts  |  Last Activity: May 27, 2015 3:51 PM Member since: Dec 22, 1998
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  • The hydrogen economy that will replace the oil economy someday is beautiful technology. It holds the promise of better times with less climate change.
    But as a profitable industry, today it is many miles from the goal.
    Thus instead of a deal for the sale and purchase of products, a ten-year partnership is announced. Partnerships occur when neither party is sure the venture is a good one. They frequently fail or fizzle. The partnership is a ship with two captains, a snake with two heads, a Pushme-Pullyu, a servant of two masters, a victim of its own essential nature. IMO this stock will revert to its downtrend line until net profits appear on the horizon.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Where's the new multiyear high?

    by robynrokn May 21, 2015 1:31 PM
    rastarich rastarich May 22, 2015 12:27 PM Flag

    it was indeed the lamest reaction ever. Everybody sold in May and went away? Today's volume approaches zero. CRM back to 70 again I guess.
    Almost same price as 15 months ago? A birdie told me it is "cheep". The company is far more valuable today: product line, technical underpinning, services growing 33%, more long-term deals, more enterprise focus, etc etc. said the bird.
    If I see Nadella pull out his checkbook (in public) I'll post it ... after buying calls of course.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rastarich by rastarich May 22, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    I trust Cree management, you have your own opinion. Of course things do not always go according to plan but their record is pretty good IMO. Some things that were said:
    product pipeline is strong
    will deliver revenue & profit growth in 4Q and in FY 2016
    repurchased 10.6 % of shares in 3 qtrs.
    reducing inventories and bringing products to market: TW series of bulbs, LED Rural utility light, CR series troffers with field-adjustable color temperature, MHD E and MHD G, SC5 goes into volume production soon
    LED volumes will improve in 2016 due to design wins and LED lighting growth
    Brand strength is key. "two years ago ... no one in the lighting business had ever heard of Cree".
    The RF biz now has a very superior product for inverters, a growth area
    The Lighting biz is higher-margin than LED biz (chips and parts) and growing rapidly.
    IP is expensive and there are legal costs upfront to defend it, but will pay off in the long run.
    The 3Q revenue miss was due to weather, it was mainly in the NE USA.
    Inventory reduction made margins worse, the benefits will come in FY2016.
    The integrated strategy is helping in the lighting market because Cree can sell superior new products based on the newest chips, instead of waiting for design wins etc.
    Lighting biz will increase internal shipments from LED biz, making LED biz numbers better with leverage of factory utilization.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Power/RF products

    by blueflamedave May 17, 2015 7:17 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 22, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    That discussion was extremely informative and I found it very upbeat. details in new post

  • Reply to

    Victory Lap

    by rastarich May 21, 2015 10:24 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 21, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    * "over a year", not "years"

  • rastarich by rastarich May 21, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    Thank you, thank you folks. Yes, I told you that margins would improve eventually, else a better beancounter would take over. Yes, I told you the GAAP numbers were misleading, and that Wall Street pros all ignore them and dig deeper. Yes, I told you that Salesforce would dominate the IT landscape. And you believed, and bought, and made money. But please, all this applause is a little embarrassing.

    I'd like to thank the little people who helped make this possible. But, there were none, I did it myself.

    I am surprised it is stalled around 74 at 10:30 AM. My guess is that the computers see it near all-time highs and do some sells. It's been years since there was a significant increase in the stock price, and IMO it will happen today and tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Cramer hard at work..

    by bobbyvesco May 21, 2015 9:25 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 21, 2015 9:31 AM Flag

    Didn't you hear the magic word MARGIN! You are so wrong it is amazing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rastarich by rastarich May 21, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    Egad, has the invisible hand (aka, the unknown buyout threat) forced MB to acknowledge that his boss - the OWNERS - want PROFITS - and that means MARGINS ??? This is what money managers want to hear! $80 today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New Power/RF products

    by blueflamedave May 17, 2015 7:17 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 19, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    I have no problem answering a few questions as I am a recent returnee to this board.
    "What knowledge do you have already ..."- In fact I am lighter than I could be in the LED/Lighting/RF knowledge areas. That's why I pose questions. People take offense, but mostly when the answers contradict their viewpoints.
    "Where and from who do you ....." - I get public information only.
    Boilerplate warnings are indeed true. Bad things could happen. Yes. You probably know that they are required to list every conceivable risk.
    " why don't you .... financial discussion by management...?" I definitely will read that discussion.
    "junior" - good luck with that, junior adolescent baby embryo zygote fool.
    "maneuver" - as a long, I favor things that please Wall Street because when they are pleased, they buy the stock. Do you understand (junior!) that fund managers want to target specific businesses and understandable companies, and tend to shun companies that are in a complicated mix of businesses? I don't want them to shun my CREE long. (The spinoff makes even more sense in today's super-heated IPO market. These days, you can sell anything that you can print, if you can keep a straight face.)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Great Companies vs CREE

    by focuseddd May 11, 2015 10:39 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 19, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    Durability and lumens per watt are the key metrics. Color quality matters, but that's old hat these days.

  • Reply to

    Good management

    by rastarich May 18, 2015 11:10 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 19, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    I meant R30, A19 are the standard bulbs.

  • Reply to

    New Power/RF products

    by blueflamedave May 17, 2015 7:17 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 19, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    Which former customers were lost, when? Fact, or speculation?

  • Reply to

    Pre-rumor was about $66.

    by benchmarkvit May 11, 2015 9:41 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 19, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    71 today. CRM due for a drop, and a spanking for the market, sez the cracked crystal ball.

  • Reply to

    An open letter to CREE,

    by moneytb May 11, 2015 3:27 PM
    rastarich rastarich May 18, 2015 5:22 PM Flag

    According to the lighting dept at Lowes in S Phoenix, they have only two brands of LED light bulbs: Sylvania and UNL (?i dont know UNL?) .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Pounding the table !

    by rastarich May 18, 2015 12:37 PM
    rastarich rastarich May 18, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    True, assumptions can justify anything. Expensive? If you subtract the cash from the market cap and add the debt, next year's earnings estimates make it close to an average market multiple. But estimates are assumptions too. Net earnings tripled in two years, that's good growth in my book. The real growth will happen when costs come down a little more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good management

    by rastarich May 18, 2015 11:10 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 18, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    They are growing, look at annual numbers. But then 3 slower quarters - why, you ask?
    IMO:
    1) Philips cleared out inventory cheap as part of their exit strategy.
    2) Price point of lighting was still too high to drive sales.

    Lately I buy Cree A19 LED bulbs for $4. Incands can cost almost that much for A19 (household recessed spots). The savings are a no-brainer. I expect revenues to rebound stronger than Dennis Rodman.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rastarich by rastarich May 18, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    Today I have made Cree my largest holding. Why?
    1) Everybody hates it already, sellers are exhausted.
    2) It is cheap, assuming growth will resume.
    3) Great new products will reignite growth.
    4) Philips' exit from LED lighting can only be good.
    5) High short ratio of 12 suggests that a mighty squeeze will follow any good news.
    6) The spinoff is very good news.
    7) The balance sheet is very solid.
    8) Management attends to the bottom line.
    9) LED lighting is near the price point at which most people and organizations will pay it to cut electric bills. See the Toledo Schools PR piece.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Mindless robots have yielded the following opinions about CREE, as displayed today on my broker's website:

    Research Team": Reduce (sell)
    S&P Capital IQ: 3* out of 5
    Ford Equity Research: Hold (3 out of 5)
    MarketEdge: Avoid (1 out of 4), and, 0 momentum (most declining)
    Jaywalk Consensus: Hold (3 out of 5)

    Okay, a few of them could hate it more, but isn't "hold" a polite word for "sell"?

    It is time to buy. Everybody has already given up on CREE.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good management

    by rastarich May 18, 2015 11:10 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 18, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    True, while annual numbers look great, the last 3 quarterly numbers lagged. Speculating about the future, IMO they will do better.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good management

    by rastarich May 18, 2015 11:10 AM
    rastarich rastarich May 18, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    Only when trolls ask me. So far I've made a lot on Cree.

CRM
72.68-0.39(-0.54%)May 28 4:01 PMEDT