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IntraLinks Holdings, Inc. Message Board

rastarich 47 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2016 2:33 PM Member since: Dec 22, 1998
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  • I recently bought a big stake in IBM (yes IBM!). I am betting that the IBM product line "Watson" will be a game-changer.

    At Georgia Tech, it is answering questions from students, as a substitute for hiring an additional TA. In these "conversations" it passed the Turing Test - the students did not realize it was nonhuman!

    I expect Watson to replace large numbers of knowledge workers and/or increase their productivity, one of the largest market niches imaginable. Too bad Watson cannot also win money on "Jeopardy".

    Salesforce also has irons in the AI fire.

    The rise of AI has been announced repeatedly for many years. It appears that the dream is coming true.

  • rastarich rastarich Jun 24, 2016 2:27 PM Flag

    IMO it is deeper than that - there is a rising worldwide tide of nationalism and anger against foreigners. Trump and Brexit are made more popular by this feeling.

    Perhaps the most important factor in the Brexit vote was revulsion at terrorist attacks and at the recent series of sexual assaults by allegedly foreign alleged Muslims at Schlossgrabenfest in Germany.

    "Make America Great Again" - who rose to power in the 1930s by promising to make Germany great again, and by demonizing non-Aryans? Is the world headed that way again, but with nuclear weapons?

  • Reply to

    Should have built it

    by rastarich Jun 2, 2016 10:28 AM
    rastarich rastarich Jun 24, 2016 2:20 PM Flag

    Agree, a buyout OF Salesforce is unlikely.

    More buyouts BY Salesforce seem a certainty. I translate MB's recent remarks about the "exciting" M&A scene to mean: "we are bidding on everything in sight". I cannot see why MB would want to sell out and do something else.

  • Reply to

    hope you got it at $80 & change...

    by loriskhireward Jun 20, 2016 10:39 AM
    rastarich rastarich Jun 24, 2016 2:15 PM Flag

    Bought a chunk today at 79.21, doubling my position from from "overweight long" to "very overweight long".

    I must say I am dissatisfied with the website of Merrill Edge. I moved there in response to strong incentives ( money and commission-free trades). I cannot recommend it for trading.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Salesforce + AMZN = now how's that for a combo?

    by clone32425 Jun 17, 2016 12:38 PM
    rastarich rastarich Jun 23, 2016 11:48 AM Flag

    Good synergy there. I shudder to think of both Bezo and Beni spending every dollar for extra growth. As a long-term speculation, the combo would be unbeatable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    5 new calendar spreads

    by howdydray Jun 13, 2016 12:33 PM
    rastarich rastarich Jun 23, 2016 8:49 AM Flag

    well those are looking good now. Still moderately overweigh long, still hoping to buy more - below 80 . But you won't believe my new pick: its the historical opposite of Salesforce ! Post to follow

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Should have built it

    by rastarich Jun 2, 2016 10:28 AM
    rastarich rastarich Jun 13, 2016 2:56 PM Flag

    I think it is DWRE that was growing revenue at 50%. OK, it is a good product, but not immune to competition from a better product.
    i really feel net margins could be 40%, half of gross margins. This would mostly be done by reducing the costs of office space, sales, and marketing. A better mousetrap sells itself - and CRM has a few.
    I wonder whether MB, as the largest shareholder, feels it would be unfair to enhance shareholder value by counting beans and destroying smaller competitors. Or perhaps he feels he wouldn't be a proper hipster if he did that. Or maybe he's just too nice a guy.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rastarich by rastarich Jun 2, 2016 10:28 AM Flag

    Salesforce built the Sales Cloud and took market share from SAP, Oracle, et al. They made billions, which they spent rounding out the platform and product line with acquisitions.
    The right way to enter B2B was to leverage the platform and the Communities products by building a competitive product. Surely a similar product to Demandware's, integrated with the Sales Cloud and the Marketing Cloud from day one, would have strong competitive advantages. And with their current size, Salesforce also could use pricing as a competitive tool.
    MB has been successful so far. But he won't count the beans, and it seems he would rather pay competitors than crush them.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Start buying long-term puts here

    by asaatjian Jun 1, 2016 1:55 PM
    rastarich rastarich Jun 1, 2016 5:04 PM Flag

    Disagree, but you are not crazy. I cannot understand why paying 12x revenues, spending all your cash, and taking out a loan are not seen as negatives, and do not lead to selling.
    Maybe CRM valuation analysis has become a "third rail" on Wall Street, like SSI reform and Medicare reform are on K Street? Or is there nobody left to capitulate?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Maybe the shorts have finally given up on CRM.
    I am not rebuying at these levels near the alltime highs, at least not for a few months. Still (moderately) overweight long.
    The habit of overpaying seems to be part of Salesforce corporate culture. In the long run, that cannot work. Where is the invisible hand??

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rastarich by rastarich May 27, 2016 11:42 AM Flag

    Another poster noted that Yahoo's Key Stats page is full of problems. For instance , the "prior period shorts" number right now for CRM says 43,000 (43K) , as of March 2005. Well true enough, March 2005 is a "prior period".
    Anyhoo, one hopes the WSJ pages are better. It shows that short interest declined a good bit, 4.5%, from April 29 to May 13, whcih was a flattish period, down-then-up. The next round of figures should be interesting, since the stock price is up about 10% in a straight line since May 13. One must imagine that there was some covering since May 13.
    The media are full of upgrades and positive opinions of CRM from the nabobs. (We on this board are distinctly sub-nabob.) CRM is at its all-time highs. According to GuruFocus, short interest has been dropping since Jan 2013, and it is at the lowest levels since 2005.
    I expect renewed shorting after the next negative news. And the oscillators show it is in overbought territory. So I am waiting to buy back what I sold.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rastarich by rastarich May 25, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    because CRM hit an alltime high! Thats because, and by my rules, i have to sell half and try to rebuy lower. Got 83.10 for it . Still overweight long.

    Youngsters: "Had to Cry Today" is a song by Blind Faith. Blind Faith was a super-group ... oh, never mind.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rastarich rastarich May 20, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    You insist on using GAAP numbers, so you should say y/y earnings growth is 500% for the quarter.
    Also, Salesforce has achieved the fastest growth ever for an enterprise software industry. That makes their growth exceptional, or rather, utterly unique. Trying to pooh-pooh their growth is illogical.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Customer journey MUMBO JUMBO

    by siboney64 May 19, 2016 6:19 PM
    rastarich rastarich May 20, 2016 10:15 AM Flag

    Utter nonsense, you are covering your eyes and ears and talking to yourself. Ignored.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    buy

    by rastarich May 3, 2016 3:59 PM
    rastarich rastarich May 19, 2016 9:40 AM Flag

    Sold some (including my pre-market all-in buy) at 82.40 . Still my largest holding. Didn't see the squeeze i expected though. Shorts have been covering for a while it seems; the remaining ones likely will never learn.

  • Reply to

    CRM....the enron of cloud

    by morefunthanrum50 May 6, 2016 3:13 PM
    rastarich rastarich May 19, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    11.6 billion of booked business. Only a fool fights the tide.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Eleven minutes until the shorts get the squeeze of their life. just went all-in long.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rastarich rastarich May 19, 2016 9:19 AM Flag

    11.6 billion of deferred and unbilled business. Fastest growth in history of enterprise software. Do you believe yet? 11 minutes before the shorts get the squeeze of their life.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rastarich rastarich May 18, 2016 11:03 PM Flag

    incredible rapid growth is never cheap. $83 after hours - all time highs - we could easily see a short squeeze in the AM.

  • rastarich by rastarich May 18, 2016 12:46 PM Flag

    Say it ten times during the CC and we will get a new high. My next sell will be 79.80 but I may tweak that upward, and/or load up under 78

    Sentiment: Buy

IL
6.70-0.43(-6.03%)Jun 24 4:02 PMEDT