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AmerisourceBergen Corporation Message Board

rationalthought11 120 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2015 5:30 PM Member since: Jan 9, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Matt Coffey presentation in England

    by freddywalker Apr 15, 2015 9:26 AM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 16, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    It is precisely 98,877,987 angels that can dance on the head of pain.

  • Reply to

    Things looking up

    by kenny94587 Apr 15, 2015 2:17 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 16, 2015 5:20 PM Flag

    bwahahahahahaha whoooooeeeeee. stop it yer killin me

  • Reply to

    Money for a registration trial?

    by nomenome94 Apr 14, 2015 6:36 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 16, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    Now that is something new - a curious statement from BT. Here's curious donkey- NO OS from a 167 patient trial.-- That is curious

  • rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 16, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    I can confirm you are clueless. If you think the donkeys on this board ( or any other group of retail shareholders) actually influence the outcome of a vote you are a phoole.

  • Reply to

    Matt's presentation

    by nomenome94 Apr 16, 2015 2:56 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 16, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    I see the donkeys are coming back. Orphan status has nothing to do with trial results. Jesus man learn something. Orphan drug status is a rubber stamp.

    The Orphan Drug Designation program provides orphan status to drugs and biologics which are defined as those intended for the safe and effective treatment, diagnosis or prevention of rare diseases/disorders that affect fewer than 200,000 people in the U.S., or that affect more than 200,000 persons but are not expected to recover the costs of developing and marketing a treatment drug.

  • Reply to

    DCVax-Direct - Lung - Market Cap Projection

    by abeta4238 Apr 16, 2015 4:21 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 16, 2015 5:10 PM Flag

    When the morons have their annual convention he sits at the head table -- but you should note that there a many more like him. And in economics its the moron a the margin that sets the share price. Stock up on 50 cents on meaningless press release. No fundamental change.

  • Reply to

    In case any of you are wondering

    by rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 3:10 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    In the end the whole world is risk vs reward. Most of the poster here have an inflated estimate of value (reward) premised in part by elementary mistakes of including all the derivatives, compounded by sophomoric revenue and profitability assumptions.

    Simultaneously they underestimate the risk based on a few press releases they don't even understand...

    That said there may very well be some interim positive announcements that don't really get them much closer to approval but will give the stock a pretty good short rem boost. i say short term because I sold stock at over 10 bucks . The stock promptly went below 5 and all the:"Good news" still only has the stock back to 8.50.

  • Reply to

    In case any of you are wondering

    by rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 3:10 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 6:13 PM Flag

    You carved that out of a larger post the gist of which is that NWBO would have to go to the equity market and you should consider dilution in the calculus and guess what less than 60 days after I posted that they went to the well again at 7% commish and 5% CASHLESS warrant exercise. The rest of the part of the post you chose to post remains true. The notes need to be repaid (and they haven't)

    As far as mkt cap always being calculated on share outstanding -- that is simply schtoopid. Do what you want But this much is true If the deal works out ALL of the derivative securities will be converted so 100mm is what folks of even avg intelligence would use.

  • Reply to

    In case any of you are wondering

    by rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 3:10 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    Proceeds? What the hell are you talking about? In the case of convertible debt, they got the proceeds at the time they entered into the transaction Conversion just erases the obligation to repay the debt ZERO cash. And in many cases (like NWBO) warrant and option exercises are cashless. NWBO doesn't see a penny. Try reading the financing that took place in August 2014. jesus man.

  • rationalthought11 by rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Yahoo's mkt cap is off by 250- 300mm. Fully diluted share count today is about 100mm and growing daily. At least do your math based on an accurate share count.

  • Reply to

    14.7 months is simply no longer accurate

    by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    16.7 BUT IMUC measured from the time of randomization NOT diagnosis, which averaged 83 days after diagnosis. So apples t apples, OS from diagnosis to death in the control group was just short of what? OH 20 months.

  • Reply to

    14.7 months is simply no longer accurate

    by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 15, 2015 9:09 AM Flag

    What link do you want? Google UCLA GBM database and the same for Cedar Sinai. There are a couple other sources but you can find them if you care, You will need to fiddle with the numbers a bit to conform to the NWBO trial parameters in order to compare apples to apples. I already did it for you but hey why would you believe me? As for PFS being a satisfactory endpoint, I refer you NWBO's own 10-q.

    The trial has serious issues. Even if the data looks good, the FDA may require a mulligan and I assure you they will look right through PFS if OS is not increased. This trial is over 10 years old and has been subject to multiple delays, missed deadlines and trial revisions with a very suspect end point (a complete mystery to me as to why they chose PFS) They have some titillating data and may have some more which will move the stock but they are a loooong way from approval on either continent.

  • Reply to

    14.7 months is simply no longer accurate

    by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 14, 2015 9:22 PM Flag

    Don't know what SCO is. But let's start with your own numbers both of which exceed 14.7. So I assume we can at least agree on that. If the number is 16.7 then to achieve stat sig you will need median OS to be at least 22 months or so. But if you look at some other data bases (like UCLA's) then SOC for all GBM patients under age 70 is about 620 days from diagnosis. You can do the rest of the math. Cedar Sinai's is 16.7 months but includes 17% of patients over the age of 70 who have a much lower life expectancy and are excluded from NWBO's p3. If you pull out patients over 70 in the cedar Sinai's data base, the median OS for SOC is about 19 months. My only point friend is this---don't do your math based on 14.7. That is one piece of sound advice.

  • Reply to

    14.7 months is simply no longer accurate

    by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 14, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    I was very fortunate and made about 20k on a long trade and got out at the interday high over 10. Thought about getting in around 5 but passed (my loss) I am currently on the sidelines and my next play (if any) will be with options.. Black-Scholes does not work for binary events so the option are mispriced. This is true as long as there is binary event that moves the stock suddenly in either direction.

  • Reply to

    14.7 months is simply no longer accurate

    by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 13, 2015 7:10 PM Flag

    Bob. Not many here want to do the research or critically examine the "results" At this point I am agnostic on whether DC-VAX works. I could critique the results reported so far and may do so in the future since I've already done the work and there is plenty to critique. But this much remains clear, If you look at the current data, OS is going to be longer than 14.7 months in the control group. If you believe the data bases at several large cancer hospitals it looks like 20-21 months for SOC. If you are making an investment decision using 14.7 months you are in for a rude shock. Good luck. The dude who think PFS is gonna hack it with the FDA is also ignoring reality. If you are interested, I point you the NWBO's comments on the matter in their 10-q's.

  • Reply to

    14.7 months is simply no longer accurate

    by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 13, 2015 6:34 PM Flag

    If you think OS is irrelevant I have a bridge to sell you. And if OS is 20 months, PFS will be extended as by 4-6 months as well. Hey believe what you want but the info is out there. Maybe you should try a little research.

  • Reply to

    14.7 months is simply no longer accurate

    by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 13, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    well not according to several other sources with LARGE data beasts. But hey keep the rose colored glasses on.

  • Reply to

    14.7 months is simply no longer accurate

    by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 13, 2015 6:27 PM Flag

    Well stated by rrrich perhaps, but dead wrong on the facts. Dude either can't read or can't to elementary school math. Median OS for Newly diagnosed gbm at UCLA is 20 months. Learn to love it sport.

  • rationalthought11 by rationalthought11 Apr 11, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    Sorry. The control group will live about 20 months. Take it to the bank. Stupps study was done io 2005. It is disingenuous to continue to quote 14.7 months. There is plenty 'o' data out there. Not saying DC-Vax won't work just that you should expect control to be 20 months.

  • Reply to

    canada/us health systems

    by armedescapade Mar 23, 2015 1:31 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Apr 1, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Hey donkey. Her e a re few pesky FACTS. Here are a few of the countries with lower infant mortality rates than the US --Serbia Crotia Hungary, The United Kingdom, France Germany Canada, Switzerland Ireland, Finland Spain Italy, Czech Republic, Japan, Denmark. In fact the EU taken as a whole has about a 40% LOWER infant mortality rate than the US.

    How many of these country consume more booze than the US
    France Estonia Germany Austria Ireland Czech Republic Denamrk Finland Poland, the UK, Greece etc etc.

    let me make it simple for a simple mind. All the countries listed above drink MORE than theUS and have LOWER infant mortality rates so your "alcohol theory" is just more right wing lies. You aren;t lying because you believe it --you're just schtoopid. Hew haw donkey

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