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AmerisourceBergen Corporation Message Board

rationalthought11 174 posts  |  Last Activity: 41 seconds ago Member since: Jan 9, 2009
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  • rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jun 25, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    It was the only thing BT could say since REO doesnt work

  • rationalthought11 by rationalthought11 Jun 30, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    The 800 pound gorilla well 2 800 lb gorillas in the room are the the lack of any announcement of the second interim analysis, which was to take place at 88 events. 66 event threshold was announced in early Dec 2013. In a week it will be 7 months. Be prepared for another announcement pushing back the completion date for full enrollment. In addition the lack of efficacy data is a bit dismaying and reason for some concern.

    The 400lb gorilla is the next round of dilution which will be coming very soon. Company is burning cash at between 5 and 6 mm a month giving NWBO only about 60 days of cash. The stock is almost certain to tank on the news of the next round of dilution. The drips and drabs of revenue from Germany won't be enough to avoid the necessity of a capital raise.

    You will get a better entry point in the next few months and there is no upside catalyst in the near future. Sidelines folks.

  • rationalthought11 by rationalthought11 Jul 7, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    Reason for concern

  • Reply to

    Where is the 88 th event?

    by rationalthought11 Jul 7, 2014 6:26 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 8, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    I recall our colloquy. Nevertheless, the model is as likely to be wrong on enrollment velocity assumptions as it is on prolonging OS past 18 mos.. Furthermore, my lingering concern is that since it is within the company's discretion to skip one or both of the remaining interim looks - (see e.g. the Oncolytics p3 fiasco) they are going to do just that and let the chips fall where they may. Remember that each interim look uses up some Alpha spend. If they don't do the interims they may be able to convince the FDA to up the stat sig p value of this trial back to the traditional .05 instead of the current .02. The .02 is probably premised, in large part, on the fact that they projected three interim looks. I still expect them to take a look at 110. But if they skip the look at 88 it won't be a positive development.

    There is more risk that reward right now. You already know the results are not stellar because the trial was not stopped after 66 events and you will not be getting ANY efficacy data from that look. It is also very unlikely that it will be stopped after 88 based on the results of the first 66, so even if the news is good you will have plenty of time to get in at reasonable prices. Why risk it here?

  • Reply to

    Where is the 88 th event?

    by rationalthought11 Jul 7, 2014 6:26 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 9, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Ah d2. So sad about ONCY. I'm serious. Anyway, the PEI doesn't know any more than anyone else at this point. And yes it is a very big positive that it has been approved, although I don't the terms of the approval. I seem to recall that it is premised on follow up data and not permanent but whatever.

    What we do know is that the trial was not stopped for efficacy after 66 events which should temper expectations in those with any sense at all. And we know that they haven't announced the 88th event. You more than most should know what delay means-- and it is NEVER good. I make no prediction other than to note that I doubt the delay is related a massive increase in OS especially in light of the interim at 66 events. More likely it is that enrollment velocity is not meeting the company's projection, which isn't terrible news but obviously isn't good news either.

    My only point is this - It's all risk reward. A few other posters don't seem to get it. If you are on the sidelines, you won't miss out on a 10 bagger, you will have plenty of time to get in a modestly higher prices. On the other hand, as you learned in ONCY- once money is lost it ain't coming back. And then you will miss every 10 bagger for the rest of your life. Living to play another day is the name of the game.

  • rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 9, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    Why do you communicate with armed lunatic as if he were human. You ain't gonna change anything this clown "thinks". He is only good as a chew toy for his intellectual superiors. Putting him on equal footing only diminishes you.

  • Reply to

    Friend who participated in DCVax-Direct

    by dogood.dowell Jul 13, 2014 11:21 AM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 14, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    Not calling you a liar but your timeline is suspect. At the time of enrollment it is safe to presume that your friend had some portion of his 6 month prognosis left. Adding 9 months to any portion of that, isn't possible based on the enrollment data provided by the company. No one has been on study that long.

  • Reply to

    Just cause we're friends .....

    by tesio_nz Jul 3, 2014 8:27 AM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 14, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

    Coal is a disaster worldwide and worse in Queensland and it is not coming back for many years -- (see the shipping industry. Long livedd excess capacity, declining demand for filthy power). Linc plans to spinoff its coal assets to a stand alone publicly traded company. With spot thermal coal at 73 bucks a ton ( less than break-even on a cash operating basis) good luck with that. Lower 48 US oil and gas ops- yawwwwwn. UCG is years away from producing revenue. North slope Umiat is interesting and the Arckaringa is titillating as well. But unconventional oil/gas is a fools errand. Well life in the Williston has been about 3 years. High drilling costs make much of the production marginally profitable. It is noteworthy that most of the Arckaringa permits previously were let go by the former lessee. Company is drilling 3 wells in late July so if you are playing the Arckaringa you might take a position. Oh and if they hit gas only, there is no pipeline for a thousand miles or so. err I mean kilometers. There is nothing other than the Arckaringa well starts that will move the stock in the short run. Q4 for a spec on the drilling results. If they come up with dry holes the company is of very little interest.

  • Reply to

    Just cause we're friends .....

    by tesio_nz Jul 3, 2014 8:27 AM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 15, 2014 6:15 AM Flag

    You do realize that Adani has NOT received approval from the feds, only from the state of Queensland. You do know that approval (or lack thereof) has been pushed back by the feds. You do know that Adani is in dire financial straits. You do know they have been unable to find a financial partner for the project so even if they get approval they cannot start on the project.. (Not surprising with coal at 73 a ton and making new lows every day. ) You do know that the first revs from the project were projected to be in 2018 (later now) and that the mine won't be producing at capacity ( if ever) until 2020. -- Oh wait apparently you don't know.

    Don't presume to talk to me about cycles, you don't seem to know anything about them. There are millions of cycles. A fruit fly life cycle is about 3 days, a woman's menstrual cycle is 28 days, Pluto's orbital cycle is about 248 years. Massive capacity additions of new mines with productive lifespans of at least 30 years, and more on the way (maybe see e.g Adani) and slack demand from a Chinese economy entering a secular slower growth phase, ensure that seaborne coal (especially Queensland coal) is in for 5-10 more years years of chronically low prices. Keep taking the advice of the other tea pig (and Ken Ring) on this board who has lost millions (if you believe him) in the ONCY fiasco.

    UCG revs are many years away in Poland and Russia. Like I said before there is no hurry on the stock unless you want to play the Arckaringa well results which, in the company's own words, are unlikely to do more than help further define the size of the resource and the quality of the rock and aid them in finding a partner to pony up the 300mm it will take to start drilling in earnest. There is a remote chance that they hit oil in a conventional zone, if so you will get a pop in the stock. Call me in 2018 we'll tawwwwk.

  • rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 19, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    I love it when chickenhawks talk tuff. What branch of the service were you in broomstick cowboy? You teabaggin puke

  • rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 19, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    yeah we need another deserter fro prescient that worked out real well didn't it chicken hawk

  • rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 21, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    It always steers me right. I never plant wheat and barley in the same row, wear polyester, reap to the very edges of my fields, or eat animals with cloven hooves. I never offer my children up to be sacrificed by Molek. Hell I even slaughter a fatted calf once in awhile.

  • rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 21, 2014 8:51 PM Flag

    Bush listened to a story about agoat for half an hour when the us was attacked on its own soil and then vanished for a day and wasn't heard from

  • Reply to

    reagan scandles

    by foo8675 Jul 20, 2014 10:17 AM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Jul 22, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    When you chickenhawks get over a 20 Year old #$%$ we'll consider forgetting the attempted Coup of the US by Raygun and Bush and the 100 criminal convictions of his adminsttration-- Sound fair teabag???

  • Reply to

    The ox is slow but the earth is patient.

    by oncyobserver Jul 30, 2014 8:55 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Aug 1, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    “Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” -

    Never more true. Y'all shudda listened to me. Most of the Johnny come lately's have wandered off on in a daze, poorer and yet curiously, no wiser.

  • Reply to

    New to this board... question

    by fsulevine Aug 5, 2014 1:31 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Aug 8, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    I guarantee you this much. You won't ever be rich unless you marry it or hit the lottery. If you are willing please tell us what makes you think this company is worth anything. You are aware that their P# trial failed and failed big time. Completedisaster. So please do tell.

  • Reply to

    why going down?

    by t_baroi Aug 1, 2014 12:17 PM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Aug 8, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    Price target 6.25? That made me laugh out loud. Thx for the chuckle.

  • rationalthought11 by rationalthought11 Aug 11, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    I done told ya that something was up and it wasn't good. (D2 you listening?) This is very bad news especially near term, Enrollment is less than expected but the real bad news is that you won't be getting results until the end of next yr (maybe). I'm vermin that their "new" enrollment estimated include some rosy projections for EU enrollment that has not yet happened. I guess we'll see.

    The deafening silence you hear is the sound go the 88 patient interim look. My guess id that it is down the schidter along with the 110 interim peek. There is no reason to do the look at 88 now that they are going to wait for 248 events. YOu will be getting NO update until 248 events. That is jus plain bad news.

    The effect on the trial is hard to judge but you can take this to the bank. Every time there is a revision to trial endpoints, enrollment or protocol it is BAD news. I will research the company's "white blood cell" dodge and give you a had's up.

    You really need to listen to me more carefully.

  • Reply to

    Two New Data Releases from NWBO

    by bioduedil Aug 11, 2014 8:58 AM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Aug 11, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    BTW you heard it here first, Stupp's study (which is now a decade old and contains data that is ffar older) will shortly be obsolete by a near study with recent data that reflects the advancements in GBM. The OS number from IMUC's trial and other recent studies are looking more like 18-20 median OS. You would be bette of listening to me

  • Reply to

    YOINK!

    by rationalthought11 Aug 11, 2014 10:11 AM
    rationalthought11 rationalthought11 Aug 11, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    You don't read very well do you. Maybe you should read the whole PR again sport.

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