Good ... I was a little surprised. It's interesting that guys make stupid remarks then use a fake name. What's the point? If they think it's a good comment, claim it with your real name.
$0.04 is correct [AFFO was $0.20 less $0.04 of hedging losses]. They probably were hedging against rising rates when the rates dropped like a stone in Q1 .... not expecting a repeat of that in Q2. The hedging was in the MREIT subsidiary.
Does your wife read this board?
Anyway, it's hard to figure the stock price action. I just reread all of the last ER and CC transcript, and it is hard to believe that they won't hit $0.17 AFFO, or better. Everything seems to be on a roll which is what I would expect given that we are in a great economic environment for RSO right now [and into the foreseeable future as well].
After the next ER, your wife will be friendlier.
I agree. I believe they have been purchasing for quite awhile, but it takes some time to buy millions of shares with minimal effect on price.
.... that - for some reason - people think this is an MREIT. In fact, only about 4% - 5% of it is [one subsidiary]. Look at the other MREIT's today .... same loss as RSO. The difference is that MREIT's are mostly RMBS and are leveraged using repo's, and RSO is mostly self-originated commercial loans leveraged with bank revolving debt [usually matched]. Probably this means that the price is currently being set by retail investors, and the pro's just sit on it for the divy.
Oh well, I expect $0.16 per quarter for the divy this year [two already announced], and $0.16, $0.17, $0.18 and $0.19 per quarter for AFFO this year [one announced]. I have seen nothing so far that would change my estimates. In fact, they have clearly been buying stock which will be very positive at these prices. We should remember that bond yields need to go up to increase profitability: short-term pain for long-term gain.
I might have erred in that energy is 7.6% of high yield bonds in the fund which are about half the fund so the numbers would drop only half as much.
The fund is holding about 7.6% energy related bonds. Oil down big today. Just for the sake of argument, let's say all energy bonds stopped paying. That would reduce the divy to $07.85 per month, or about 12.33% yield at today's PPS. PPS must be near the bottom regardless of what oil does.
Management has said no more ROC, and I believe that. I think $0.72 is an excellent possibility as follows:
 $0.16 AFFO last quarter which included - $0.04 in hedging losses from the MREIT subsidary [per CC]. That was an exceptionally difficult quarter for MREIT's, and just cutting that loss in half would produce $0.02 more AFFO without any other improvements.
 Their biggest placement last quarter was only in place for half a quarter.
 I think they have been buying back shares which may improve their per share numbers.
 Interest rates are up nicely so any new placements should have better spreads and pre-payments are probably zero.
Any one of these could increase AFFO to $0.18 in the 2nd quarter. Now, other things could have occurred, so we'll see, but I think a divy of $0.72 will increase their PPS to $5.00 and $5.50 when it happens in consecutive quarters.
I hope it does, and I'll buy more. That would be an 18% divy at $0.64 a year, and there are people [like me] who think the divy will increase slightly next year. You could have a 20%+ payer.
Unless you think that the divy will be cut sometime soon, and I don't, you have to be nuts to sell this stock at this level. It's paying 16.6% at the current price, and sports a big discount to NAV. End of story. Figure out the fate of the divy from your analysis, and act based on that. Period. All the other gossip means nothing when you have a divy over 16%.
But the street is sometimes wrong, and those are the opportunities you are looking for .... this is one of them. Are you saying that the street is never wrong?
This price action has nothing to do with RAS specifically. It is thought that REIT's will not fair well when their financing costs increase. RAS' next ER will change that impression.
I can't say for certain as they haven't reported, but I would guess - based on price action - that they have been buying for about a month. If so, this will improve their per share numbers when reported. They don't report it because that would have the effect of increasing the price which they don't want while they are buying.
Remember two things:
 The market doesn't like uncertainty, and sometimes it doesn't matter what the uncertainty is.
 The market is not always rational or correct.
Read the transcript of the last CC. Management said that they didn't repurchase any stock in the 1st qtr, but they expected to do so in the 2nd quarter, Much more positive and certain statement than the authorization PR.
.... is why people think their money is lost if the bond fund goes down. As long as the economy continues to do reasonably well [this is a U.S. only fund], then defaults will remain low, and dividends will be paid. Greece, Puerto Rico and China don't directly affect the stability of the fund. The stock price could [has] gone down with no change in the ability of the fund to pay dividends.
As long as you can hold the fund for a couple of years, the stock price will recover. Look at what happened after the financial crash .... Everything went down, but, if you bought and waited, you did very well. Now, if you aren't in a position to wait, then you need to leave this fund now, but that does not seem to be the situation for most people.