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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

ray858945 58 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Sep 17, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Insiders and Their Sheep

    by jimcooper28 Jan 4, 2015 1:23 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 4, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Jim ...

    Gee, Jim, you really had writer's itch this morning. A couple comments:

    [1] Congrats on making the right decision to hold onto PSEC. I agree with it, and it's what I am doing with my 90,000 shares.

    [2] If PSEC does spin off certain businesses this spring, then it could be very beneficial to shareholders. I held NRF at $8+ and that worked out alright.

    [3] PSEC management has purchased more of its own stock than any company I know of, and most of it was purchased above $9 ... only a few shares recently below $9.

    [4] I didn't double check, but I believe PSEC management is paid 2% and 20% like a hedge fund. This is typical of outside managers, and, until recently, was well worth it ... and will be again. They will not reduce their fees, however, why should they [realistically]?

    [5] If the statements of management were misleading, their auditors would have forced a revision. I was an auditor for six years with PWC, and I know that statements of fact - and misleading implications - would not be allowed.

    Ray

  • Reply to

    my 5000 shares at $11

    by b0n312 Dec 8, 2014 4:58 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Dec 8, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    PSEC has been at this price twice before in the last 5 years. It always recovered to around $12.

  • Reply to

    Insiders and Their Sheep

    by jimcooper28 Jan 4, 2015 1:23 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 4, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Whiskey ...

    The best - maybe only - way to determine market value of an asset of this type is by cash flow generated, then discount it for risk if necessary. PSEC's record for non-performing loans is stellar ... can pretty much be disregarded.

    If you believe that PSEC should earn 12%, then the PPS is right where it should be now as consensus earnings estimates are for $1 plus. If you believe that it should earn like other BDC's, then 10% is a better number, and the PPS should be $10 plus. If you think that some spinoffs will release extra value, then who knows, but $12 would not be impossible.

  • Reply to

    SECTOR ROTATION

    by burghdood Jan 4, 2015 2:34 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 4, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    Yes. I am able to hold my PSEC indefinitely ... 20 years anyway. If you can hold a long time, all the math changes. Let's say you hold for 20 years, but the price never recovers, and you are down $2 a share. OK, let's say you get $1 per year, or $20 for the 20 years, in dividends. That's an $18 return on, say, a $11 investment or 164% which is 8.2% per year, down from 9.1% per year if the PPS recovers to $11. It's a hit, but nothing like the one-year hits usually described in these posts.

  • ray858945 by ray858945 Nov 11, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    As a U of Mich alumnus, I have to mention Austin Hatch, a freshman on the Mich basketball team.

    In 2003, he was in a small plane crash in which his mother and both siblings were killed. Then, in 2011, he was in another small plane crash [both piloted by his father] in which his father and step-mother were killed. Twice he survived crashes in which everyone else died. He suffered severe injuries the second time, and Michigan could have pulled a promised basketball scholarship ... but they didn't. Last night, he scored his first point in a Mich uniform, and the house came down as everyone knew his story. He hugged his coach like he was his father, and his teammates like they were brothers.

  • Reply to

    AFFO vs GAAP earnings

    by callitht Nov 6, 2014 7:29 AM
    ray858945 ray858945 Nov 6, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    AFFO. GAAP includes things like unrealized gains and losses on assets [mark-to-market] which may never be realized. AFFO is much closer to cash basis which is the money available for divies.

  • Reply to

    PSEC spin offs

    by dayton0hi0 Dec 27, 2014 3:42 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Dec 27, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    Dayton ....

    Very poor guess. PSEC's current shareholders own all of the PSEC assets; they would have to give them away by vote to do what you suggest. Do you think that is going to happen? I assume you are enjoying the short life.

  • ray858945 by ray858945 Nov 3, 2014 9:09 PM Flag

    "Through October 31, 2014, we have originated commitments of CRE loans totaling $641.7 million."

    That means about $166M was added in October, or more than 3 times the rate of the first 9 months. The divy looks pretty safe to me.

  • Reply to

    Management Fees

    by ray858945 Nov 21, 2014 3:52 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Nov 21, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    Thanks for the correction. $2M per year is still not crazy high by Wall Street standards. PSEC has to compete for people, and money talks on The Street just like it does on this board.

  • Reply to

    Management Fees

    by ray858945 Nov 21, 2014 3:52 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Nov 21, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    P.S. Thank goodness they don't have to hire baseball players or actors ... it's all relative.

  • ray858945 by ray858945 Nov 21, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    I think this analysis is accurate, but comment if its not.

    Total management fees = $50M per year
    Total employees = 100
    Average per person = $500,000 per year

    That sounds like a lot to me, but, by Wall Street standards, it's a deal. It's easy to find guys making 100 times that or even a 1,000 times that.

  • Reply to

    Will be out on the water

    by carl_icahnt Nov 10, 2014 8:19 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Nov 10, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    Hey Carl ...

    I was in the USAF during the Viet Nam War, and flew over 200 combat missions. I had a reunion with about 50 of my flyer friends this past summer. Best Wishes to you.

    Ray

  • Reply to

    ownership?

    by vremsen Nov 17, 2014 2:36 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Nov 17, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    One reason is that PSEC, and all other BDC's, were removed from the Russell 2000 a few months ago. Many institutions simply buy the ETF's that tracks the Russell, or other indexes. So, BDC's get left out of those institutional portfolios. I don't know how big of a percentage that is, about 7% - 8%, I think, but it's part of it. And, as mentioned below, PSEC has very high insider ownership compared to other stocks.

  • Reply to

    I still dont understand

    by frigator Nov 7, 2014 2:52 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Nov 7, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    In that case, the new companies would have to buy any assets they wanted from PSEC .... the assets won't be just handed over to a new company with the existing owners [us] getting nothing.

  • Reply to

    INSIDER PURCHASE.........

    by slicktop4 Dec 10, 2014 10:03 AM
    ray858945 ray858945 Dec 10, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Agree H ...

    I don't think Barry spent over a million two days ago because he had nothing better to do. Does that guarantee a higher PPS for PSEC? Not in the short run 'cause Barry can't control the market, but it surely means he has confidence in the future. If anyone is not bolstered by the Chairman buying over a million in stock, then sell your stock and have a beer ... have a couple.

  • Reply to

    Insiders and Their Sheep

    by jimcooper28 Jan 4, 2015 1:23 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 5, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    Maybe you filed some paperwork, but you aren't a whistleblower ... you don't fit the definition. You have no information or evidence. Apparently, no brain either. Your threats are baseless. One thing you should learn: sometimes people think that the government will fight their claims in court on their behalf; this almost never happens. Now, as others have pointed out, you have already committed libel, so if the FBI wants to pursue anyone, it will be you.

  • Reply to

    Buy during the coming correction

    by rocks2sea 9 hours ago
    ray858945 ray858945 5 hours ago Flag

    Rocks ...

    I think that using the term "small business" sounds a little misleading ... at least to me. These companies often get $20M to $120M from PSEC which doesn't sound that small. Didn't want people to think these were Mom and Pop stores.

    Also, research shows that people who make their investment all at once do better on average than people who average in. It appears to me that PSEC has bottomed, and that this is a good time to jump in.

  • Reply to

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY

    by aronnimac Jan 19, 2015 10:21 AM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 19, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    I'm not a Southerner, but let me note that Lincoln initially asked Lee to be in charge of the Union Army before he asked Grant. Lee and Grant attended West Point together, although Lee did much better. It was very difficult for Lee to decide what he would do, but when his home state of Virginia went Confederate, he decided to go along with his beloved Virginia where he had a big plantation. BTW, after the war - to rub salt in the wound - Grant buried many fallen Union soldiers on the grounds of Lee's plantation. This was the beginning of what is now called Arlington Cemetery.

  • Reply to

    Will be out on the water

    by carl_icahnt Nov 10, 2014 8:19 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Nov 11, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    I flew intelligence flights from Okinawa to Viet Nam, Laos and the Gulf in RC-135's. Also, was stationed in Cam Ranh Bay TDY for about 6 months total flying RC-130's. Tour was from 1969 to 1971 [30 months]. I've been to Da Nang, and I've watched the gunships and helicopters rain bullets [tracers] on the Cam Ranh jungle at night when the enemy would try to sneak on base. We flew long flights so my 200+ flights were about 4,000 hours. I got 19 Air Medals and a Distinguished Flying Cross as souvenirs.

  • Reply to

    From the FSC conference call

    by marionpolk2000 Dec 1, 2014 10:29 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Dec 2, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Ethel ...

    He said there are lots of deals right now; the hardest part is finding the leverage. Supposedly, that's PSEC's intention with the NAV question ... maintaining their credit facility on which they just got a rate reduction.

AGNC
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