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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

ray858945 69 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 19, 2015 12:55 PM Member since: Sep 17, 2012
  • Reply to

    Market holding PSEC back.....

    by info_only_2 Jan 6, 2015 11:51 AM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 6, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    You should know.

  • Reply to

    Price point lowered

    by forager3215 Jan 6, 2015 9:25 AM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 6, 2015 11:52 AM Flag

    I'm thinking 16 also, although they will expect to earn - and will earn - more. REIT and BDC managers are giving themselves some cushion given the volatility in their businesses these days. A Xmas bonus could easily happen, though.

  • Reply to

    Insiders and Their Sheep

    by jimcooper28 Jan 4, 2015 1:23 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 5, 2015 10:29 AM Flag

    Maybe you filed some paperwork, but you aren't a whistleblower ... you don't fit the definition. You have no information or evidence. Apparently, no brain either. Your threats are baseless. One thing you should learn: sometimes people think that the government will fight their claims in court on their behalf; this almost never happens. Now, as others have pointed out, you have already committed libel, so if the FBI wants to pursue anyone, it will be you.

  • Reply to


    by burghdood Jan 4, 2015 2:34 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 4, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    Yes. I am able to hold my PSEC indefinitely ... 20 years anyway. If you can hold a long time, all the math changes. Let's say you hold for 20 years, but the price never recovers, and you are down $2 a share. OK, let's say you get $1 per year, or $20 for the 20 years, in dividends. That's an $18 return on, say, a $11 investment or 164% which is 8.2% per year, down from 9.1% per year if the PPS recovers to $11. It's a hit, but nothing like the one-year hits usually described in these posts.

  • Reply to

    Insiders and Their Sheep

    by jimcooper28 Jan 4, 2015 1:23 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 4, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    Whiskey ...

    The best - maybe only - way to determine market value of an asset of this type is by cash flow generated, then discount it for risk if necessary. PSEC's record for non-performing loans is stellar ... can pretty much be disregarded.

    If you believe that PSEC should earn 12%, then the PPS is right where it should be now as consensus earnings estimates are for $1 plus. If you believe that it should earn like other BDC's, then 10% is a better number, and the PPS should be $10 plus. If you think that some spinoffs will release extra value, then who knows, but $12 would not be impossible.

  • Reply to

    Insiders and Their Sheep

    by jimcooper28 Jan 4, 2015 1:23 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 4, 2015 2:25 PM Flag

    Jim ...

    Gee, Jim, you really had writer's itch this morning. A couple comments:

    [1] Congrats on making the right decision to hold onto PSEC. I agree with it, and it's what I am doing with my 90,000 shares.

    [2] If PSEC does spin off certain businesses this spring, then it could be very beneficial to shareholders. I held NRF at $8+ and that worked out alright.

    [3] PSEC management has purchased more of its own stock than any company I know of, and most of it was purchased above $9 ... only a few shares recently below $9.

    [4] I didn't double check, but I believe PSEC management is paid 2% and 20% like a hedge fund. This is typical of outside managers, and, until recently, was well worth it ... and will be again. They will not reduce their fees, however, why should they [realistically]?

    [5] If the statements of management were misleading, their auditors would have forced a revision. I was an auditor for six years with PWC, and I know that statements of fact - and misleading implications - would not be allowed.


  • Reply to

    The Dividend............

    by slicktop4 Jan 4, 2015 11:30 AM
    ray858945 ray858945 Jan 4, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    No. They covered with NII last quarter, and this quarter should be as good - or better - because it's been a good economic environment for MCC.

  • Reply to

    Very Depressing

    by davidkcarlson Dec 31, 2014 1:36 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Dec 31, 2014 4:31 PM Flag

    David ...

    First of all, it seems that you are including the unrealized loses in your analysis. On that basis, the last couple of months have been less than joyful. If I look at only my dividends plus realized gains/loses, then I beat the S&P. If I add the unrealized, then I am flat from last year. I'm not going to worry about it much. I expect the income stuff to come back in 2015. Heck, I added to my NCV and NCZ over the last couple of days, and they are already up. I bought NCZ today at $8.44, and it ended the day at $8.91.

    So, David, hold on .... better news will come along ... enjoy your divvies until then.

  • Reply to

    Just bought 18,000 shares of PSEC.

    by elvis_presley0140 Dec 31, 2014 3:40 PM
    ray858945 ray858945 Dec 31, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    Added 5,000 shares today.

21.58-0.17(-0.80%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT