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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

raybans2 46 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 2 minutes ago Member since: Dec 15, 2005
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  • raybans2 raybans2 1 hour 2 minutes ago Flag

    You are right that this is a good stock to short. It doesn't mean they anyone is obligated to care about longs that buy this stock against all evidence that it is an ideal short investment and should never be bought long. No one is telling anyone to buy this stock long except for people who don't know what they are talking about.

    I've made loads of money over the last 18 months shorting this stock. Never lost money on one single trade. You have an opportunity to get out now on this people but you will wait until it has passed and sell too late and that is the problem. You want an hard entry and an easy exist but TVIX is just the opposite. You have to exit within a day of the peak. Short at a peal and you have a lot of time to chose your exit. Psychologically this stock messes with the decision process of the long and makes it easy for the short to get out with good profits.

  • raybans2 raybans2 1 hour 17 minutes ago Flag

    It won't go to 50 over Greece. All that will happen if Greek defaults is that the Greeks will withdraw from the Euro. No one buys anything from Greece anymore because their unions and high taxes have made their products unaffordable to the rest of the world. And when they buy something from us they already don't pay their bills. It just like Ukraine. Nothing more than a reason for a small percentage of the market participants to react which will create a glitch on which to profit. This is not the beginning of a recession. That's when the VIX goes above 50 and recessions are easy to predict.

  • Some are still hoping for a resolution but I believe that the European banks have concluded that if they give Greece another loan that it will just be more money that won't get paid back. Greece needs to be booted from the Euro. They are not financially responsible enough to be with countries who are. With their own currency they can devalue it and wipe out much of the effect the unions have had on their competitiveness.

    These aren't the same Greeks from 2000 years ago. Today's Greeks are peasant beggars. Ancient Greeks would not want to be in the same room with them. The rest of Europe should flush them.

  • Soon this stock is going to drop like a rock when the fears created by Greece subside. It won't matter if they default or don't default. All is needed is for it to be resolved so people understand the outcome. I'm just waiting for the VIX to go a little higher. I would like to see the VIX above 20 ideally before I start to enter my short position.

    We aren't entering a recession. This is a market glitch. If you are long pick your sell point and don't be greedy. If you are short don't wait too long. Its OK for the first few buys to go negative as you know that it will be positive soon enough as this stock always goes down long term.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jun 19, 2015 7:13 AM Flag

    All you guys are clueless how this stock works. This is a tracking stock and thus the longs and shorts cannot impact it's price by what they buy or sell because the arbitrage traders create or liquidate stocks in order to keep the price in line with underlying. This stock is based on the buying of futures of the VIX. because of this the price will always decline because of contango decay. That's why the shorts always make money. Not because they drive it down because they can#$%$ because the price of this stock declines long term by design. Anyone who understands this clealy would never buy this stock.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jun 15, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    18.6% efficiency is awesome for a thin film and better than off shore crystalline so why are their revenues so low compared to expectations? Why aren't they selling these things as they once had hoped that they would?

    They have the technology so why aren't they selling like they have it. The cost to make them is low. So what's wrong? Why are they losing money?

  • Reply to

    Some beautiful contango right now

    by tremulousbull Jun 6, 2015 11:13 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jun 8, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    I'm looking for an uptick because of the bond market's reaction to impending fed rate increases. So I'm waiting before I short.

    The VIX is still below 16. I don't like to short TVIX until the VIX is above 20. You may make some contango profits shorting now in the mean time but I have never lost money shorting this stock because I wait until the VIX has peaked. I know I have passed up contango loss profits but my risk is nearly zero. The way I do it it's almost impossible to lose. Thus the reason I always make 30% to 50% a trade. You can make more but you are taking a chance of having to take some pretty large temporary losses which I rather not stomach. You better have at least 2/3 of your account in cash or other stocks.

  • Reply to

    If the bond market is any indication

    by raybans2 Jun 8, 2015 11:22 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jun 8, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Because the bond market is predicting an increase in interest rates which impacts everything. It even impacts the valuations of stocks because if you cannot buy a company with borrowed money and make a profit then it is overvalued, obviously. Thus low interest rates have allowed PEs to increase to a higher level that may no longer be justified at higher rates, depending on what rate they increase. If it’s faster than EPS growth then investors who use valuation for buy and sell decisions will take note. This will drive stop prices down as these investors sell as a precaution against holding through a correction.

    I'm not saying that bond rates are accurately correlated to anything. I'm saying that bond investors are fleeing because I believe they think it's no longer safe to own because they are predicting that the fed is done postponing the inevitable. What more does one need to know? The details are unimportant. Only that the timeliness of an event that won't bode well for anyone. You cannot predict the severity of the correct but it would be unprecedented if there was not one at all. And it would not be uncommon if it were deep. The fact is that risk has gone up and the likelihood of reward has declined. It’s a no brainer to be out if nothing else. I exited everything in December and have been shorting opportunistically as opportunities present themselves its safer than buying long pre-correction.

  • Its getting close to the time to short AGNC. One thing I have learned over the years is that the bond traders are better at predicting the future than stock traders because they have more to lose and less to gain. Bonds are falling off a cliff.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jun 4, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    Why would you want to own it. All indications are that rates are finally going to go up. Only the most risk tolerant investors are remaining in bonds probably because these are the people who never comprehend future events until it's too late. I'm just waiting for short entry points market wide because when interest rates go up then everything becomes overvalued. If you cannot relate to this point of view then you're probably not going to be on the right side of the trade when the markets move.

  • Reply to

    going bk11 what your take trades like it

    by walla1957 Jun 1, 2015 3:21 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jun 1, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    I just read up on it. The broker will eventually write it down to zero value at which time a tax event occurs. It actually works out better to cover for a penny a share before bankruptcy so your money is not on hold for a while.

  • Reply to

    going bk11 what your take trades like it

    by walla1957 Jun 1, 2015 3:21 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jun 1, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    You may never have to cover. Maybe this is the perfect tax shelter. Does the IRS have a rule that you have to claim a short position profit when a company declares bankrupcy? Or can you own zero valued short positions forever and never claim a profit. You won't owe any borrowed money because the value is zero.

    I think you don't owe taxes because you cannot cover because there is no shares to buy to cover. I read on the web that this is the best possible scenario for the short seller. I had the opposite problem once. Owned stock in a bankrupt company and couldn't sell the shares to claim a loss. My broker offered to buy them from me for 1 penny a share so I could get the stock break. We did it in lot sizes so the commissions made on the trade paid for their cost to buy so the broker did not lose money. It was purely a paper trade to generate the tax event I needed. But if short why would you do this? Why not just ignore the situation and never cover and just forget about it.

  • Reply to

    It Sounds Like Next Q Is Also Lost

    by blubber_blub_blubb May 22, 2015 4:56 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 May 29, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    Why be concerned about when or if they can turn around. Go with what you know which is this stock is a dog. Short it like everyone else who is making money on it. This is a no brainer. Really.

  • Reply to

    Aeropostale reminds me of Radio Shack

    by adamstrosberg May 28, 2015 12:34 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 May 29, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    It's good if you are short. I love this stock.

    Since the over all market is stalled and is looking like it is ripe for a correction it's pretty risky to be long in my opinion. So finding dogs like this stock is a way to have a position that would do even better if there was a correction. And if there is no correction its still good. It's easier to row with the flow than against it.

  • Reply to

    TVIX unlimited shares

    by daytradejoe May 21, 2015 1:30 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 May 26, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    You would think it was obvious. Makes you wonder what kind of mind decides to buy an obvious short.

    The problem is that we are in a volatilty lull so I cannot get a safe short position. Waiting for the market to tank so I can short TVIX again and make more money.

  • Reply to

    TVIX unlimited shares

    by daytradejoe May 21, 2015 1:30 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 May 26, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    The only safe way to invest in this stock is short it because it always goes down long term. It has to. It is mathimatically impossible for this stock to rise in value in the long term.

  • Reply to

    Ask kids what they are wearing these days

    by lightningkickbox May 23, 2015 2:49 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 May 26, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    You can still make money on this stock. I just made 30% shorting this stock in a few weeks.

    With the market at a peak and stalled for 5 months I would say that the long approach has become risker than the short approach. If the the market is in bull mode find good stocks and go long. When the market is in bear mode, or stalled before the drop, find bad stocks and short. Either way you make money and the risk is lower.

    If you stick to one approach you make and lose money and they cancel each other out. We are not here to do a little better than break even. Being happy because you broke even rather than lose money isn't a wining strategy.

  • raybans2 raybans2 May 21, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    you don't think they will go bankrupt?

  • raybans2 raybans2 May 21, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    maybe I should short some more. easy money

  • Reply to

    Just sold every share I own.

    by channelcat57 May 7, 2015 9:44 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 May 12, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    You should be thinking about what's likely to happen in the future than what has been happening in the past. It's no safer to do this than it is to drive by looking in the rear view mirror of a car and thinking it's OK because you haven't crashed yet. Interest rates have to go up eventually. The only issue is how fast. So it's a matter of bleeding slowly or fast. In any event you bleed.

18.395-0.195(-1.05%)3:57 PMEDT