You are not going to be able to buy it consently right be a major peak. What is more liky is you will buy it long before it peaks and you will lose so much money while you wait that you will be lucky just to break even.
I guess if staying on topic doesn't work for you then you can always change the subject. Regardless of when this trend started, nobody is fixing anything. It is getting worse. And to suggest that this is a measure of success is lame.
Good manufacturing jobs are shipped off shore because China depresses the valuation of its Yuan. Under normal conditions a trade imbalance would normally cause the Yuan to rise in value but currency manipulation by them has prevented it. Now that we understand it don't you think it is time to stand up to currency manipulation and put an end to it? Is Obama doing that?
We have a massive over supply of low skilled workers because of unchecked illegal immigration. Is Obama doing anything about that now? No, he wants to make them legal so that the damage it has caused to our economy and the devastating impact it has had on the lives of low skilled workers is permanent. He wants their votes and he is willing to sacrifice American citizen's livelihoods to get them. Nice guy? I don't think so.
But you don’t even think about any of this because you are too busying thinking of ways to defend him so it just goes in one ear and out the other and never gets digested. That is why you will never understand the root causes of these problems because you aren’t even trying to. You are too busy with slogans to counter what anyone says to take time to even think about it enough to understand what is really going on in the world.
The fact is that you cannot force companies to make stuff here in the US if it is cheaper to make it somewhere else. They can start their businesses anywhere they want. You have to make it so that the countries who entice them to build their factories other there no longer have this advantage. We need to start taking action against currency manipulators.
They are low paid jobs. It seems that your expectations are pretty low. The rest of us want good jobs. Middle class jobs are in decline. That is why they are starting to call it the bar bell economy. You have high paid professionals, low paid service people, and fewer in the middle. But to you it seems that this is an achievement. Just what does it take for someone to do a bad job? Don't say it, first you need to know if they are a democrat or a republican before you can decide.
If you are right it will be random luck. If you are wrong TVIX will continue to erode and you will lose more money. Time is against the long and thus you cannot afford to be wrong. The short on the other hand has time on his side. He can set a stop loss and wait. Owning TVIX long is very similar to buying call options.
I have never lost any money shorting this stock. From what I have observed the long can't make that claim. They lose most of the time.
I short on VIX peaks so that means no today but yes if $3.48 becomes a peak in the future. There is no simple yes or no answer because there are conditions that must be met.
That said, my current position is getting so low in value that I have been contemplating a slow entry with tight stop losses because it seems that this low volatility trend won't break any time soon. That is good for shorting because it means TVIX will keep going lower at a very fast rate but it then gives one's entry point no margin for error. I like the margin of error that shorting on VIX peaks gives you. Since the VIX is so low I might start my entry process if the VIX goes above 15 instead of 20. It is all relative and I have never seen the VIX this low before since I have been tracking it closely. This is new territory for me. Longs are really eating it.
Since the VIX goes up so rapidly you need to have stop losses but when you are entering on a peak it is too volatile to do that. It is all over the place. So you just have to take a dive. That is why I enter 25% of my position at a time and wait to see what it is going to do next. This always causes me to make less profits in the end because usually I end up getting two really good buy points and two not as good. But it also gives me a chance to see if I have miss timed the market. You can't be too greedy. If you are you take a chance of getting a margin call. The last time I shorted I kept 60% of my account in cash in case I was way too early. I would have made a lot more had I not done that but then I would not have had any contingency in case the VIX just kept going up. Because of all these safety measures it is probably not possible for me to more than double my account value in a year. However I won't ever lose it all either.
Caution is the key. This puppy shoots up to rapidly when it does. But it is those rapid increases that is fly paper for the longs. That is what suckers them in but the decay kills them.
Eventually agnc and nly will both have similar amounts of low profit loans left over from lower interest days. Only new mREITs have this starting out advantage. When interest rates peak again there will new batch of mREITS who will have nothing but high interest rate loans and they will be the ones paying the high dividends. If agnc survives the cycle i suspect that they will look more like nly because they will no longer have a fresh portfolio of high interest rate loans. They will have a mix and thus a lower spread just like nly. That is if they survive. Nly has shown that they know how. They did it once already. This will be agncs first attempt at riding out the low to high interest rate cycle which causes so many over leveraged mREITs to go bankrupt. It should be interesting to observe.
I use trailing stops. I will let myself get stopped out. My stops are already much lower than any price i would have exited at if i were thinking along the lines you just said.
Which is interesting because he loves to snuff people with drones and then does nothing to promote peace between antagonist in the middle east. But then that would require some effort. It is more fun to snuff out people with drones. That is why he actually gets that done consistently. Because he enjoys it like he enjoys golf. Because it is fun. But actually making peace is boring. That is why nothing happens in this regard. Name one thing. Who has he encouraged to make compromises that have led to meaningful peace accords? Name one. There seems to be some belief that he must have done something but when asked no one has specifics. It is like people are believing generalities that have been spontaneously created out of nothing. But no one can say from what? I call these rig in the nose democrats.
You will believe anything. And the dumber it sounds the more easy you are to convince.
TVIX will never have a turn around. You are imaging that it is like a company that has intrinsic value. TVIX has no intrinsic value that last more than a few months because all its proceeds are invested in future options that have time decay and lose value daily. Futures lose value with time and before these futures become completely worthless they sell them and roll them over further out into the future. This is a losing proposition long term. They have lost everything from the money that was invested years ago. They keep needing more people to buy the stock to make up for the losses. The only reason they don't go to zero is because more people keep buying the stock so they have more money to invest in futures that will also eventually become worthless in the future. There is no bottom to this and there is no recovery. It just keeps going lower at a steady rate. That is why they have reverse splits. Otherwise it would be a penny stock already.