No one knows this. Because if they did the knowledge of it would have caused it to have already occurred and you would have been left out of it. Seriously, just think about it for a few seconds. The fact is that future events that are known are priced in. Future events that are unknown are by definition not known by anyone. I don't believe that if something is obvious to one person that it isn't obvious to many others. Only dumb people think they can outsmart the market. There are just too many people involved in it. The swings we see are due to new information that was not priced in. And if it wasn't priced in already then it is highly unlikely that you are aware of it first. Trust me, if you thought about it then over a 100,000 other people thought about it too and it's priced in.
Because if what you were expecting to happen when you entered didn't happen then it would not be wise to remain invested if you are wrong about why you invested in the first place.
People tell other people that they win because they don't. Because if you do win most of the time you don't feel the need. It doesn't even occurs to you.
Same hear. There abouts. But I kept my exposure low enough that I can handle it going a lot higher.
When demand for other products increases because people are spending a lot less on gas then companies will report better earnings in my opinion. Oil has people confused. Normally lower prices are associated with weaker demand. But this is an over supply scenario. So markets are reacting based on price alone without asking why the price changed. The majority of people really don't understand why things happen so when something happens for a different reason they don't see it. It's like people thinking that that old style inflation cycles from 30 years ago is how the economy still works today when excess demand for products doesn't impact wages here in the US anymore because they are made in China. For 20 years most people haven't made this connection. Which basically implies that they never really understood what caused inflation. It's like this on everything with most people. That's why you should not assume your doctor knows what he's doing because most people don't.
An option on an option. That is about as leveraged as it gets.
I would have liked to have shorted higher but I was in my doctors office during the peak getting my yearly physical. I got two orders in at over $12. I kind of remember $12.35 or there about but the price was changing very rapidly at the time. It was a market order. I would have to look at my trade history to be more specific than that. traded on the second peak. Opened the web page and saw that I missed the peak and then all of a sudden it started to rocket up again and I started to short thinking I got a second chance.
Also my broker isn't requiring me to call in anymore. 1/2 million TVIX hard to borrow shares were indicated as being available at 3% interest. Not bad if you ask me.
Lower oil prices are simulative. They allow money that was going into oil to be spent on other things. Definitely don't own any oil stocks at the moment. Oil going down causes the indexes to decline but it is a single sector that we can choose to not invest in. So I don't see the problem with this. The majors will survive and that is all that matters.
The concern is whether oil exporting countries can feed their populations and if not what will that mean for immigration of people who think radically different wanting to move to areas that would never want to live under the rules that they would impose if they could. That is the only thing that concerns me about oil prices being low because the people in Europe are acting like they live in fantasy world where diversity means harmony when in reality it means the opposite. Since Europe cant help themselves I am concerned for them as a functioning society.
What is your definition of bad? If China had continued their unnaturally high economic growth based on stealing growth from other economies by devaluing their currency to make it so others cannot compete it would have lead to only China having a viable economy and the rest of the world in a deep depression. So how long could that go on? There has to be a point where there is no more growth to steal. On top of that the Chinese are consuming more internally. So if production numbers for the purpose of export are not as good what that means is maybe we don't die in this end game. Maybe we survive after all. We can't grow more until China grows less. So the way I see it then is that this is not necessarily a bad development in the long run. It needs to happen anyway or we are all doomed to becoming 3rd world countries with respect to China. I am for one glad to see China's economy transforming to a consumer economy so they can focus less on devaluing their currency to boost their exports and we can then compete on price once again.
I also tried to short UVXY with no success. I was able to buy SVXY and XIV in my IRA account. Seems more people are figuring out which side of the trade you want to be on. When I called in they were able to tag shares to my account within 30 seconds of asking. I then placed the order 10 seconds after that. it's just the hassle of calling but it can be done. The worse part is listening to the recording that they are sorry for the inconvenience but all representatives are busy. My guess is that it is for other reasons that they are so busy. People are calling in to sell regular shares. I waited 5 minutes to get a representative during which the stock price went up 25 cents. So in the end it was a net gain to me. Of course it always could have gone the other way.
Except the manufacturing jobs that were forced to move off shore because they could not compete with China's devalued currency have caused a lot of middle class workers to lose those jobs and start working at jobs that pay less. And since most of the people who came across the southern border illegally cannot comprehend the concept of getting a higher education then they are fighting tooth and nail for what is left over and thus any US citizen who does not have the aptitude for a higher education is left fighting in a snake pit. Workers at that level are a dime a dozen now so they are bidding each others wages down. You cannot solve these social problems without a trade remedy with China. They are stealing our economic growth and middle class jobs. To say it allows us to get products ignores the fact that those products never should have sold for those lower levels had China let their currency float and that the social cost of those lower cost products is a broadening of the gap between rich and poor. This will lead to remedies that involve income redistribution we don't solve the problem at its root which is to prevent countries like China from manipulating their currency to an advantage to them but to a detriment to us. They aren't having their people work at slave labor wages because it doesn't benefit them long term. It's not just the workers, they are putting entire companies out of business. Companies who would have been able to compete if it had not been for currency manipulation. A trade imbalance cannot exist without currency manipulation. To have a trade imbalance they have to be stashing left over dollars into their central banks. So it is intentional. There is no doubt about that.
I was able to short at $11.15. Pretty close to the latest high of 11.21. I would have shorted at about $10.95 but the web page wouldn't allow me to short. Said zero hard to borrow shares. So I called in and had them manually tag shares to my account and then shorted. During that delay it rose in price about 25 cents. Then it dropped again. Some times you get lucky. From what I can see todays high was $11.21. Longs should consider taking some off the table. If I were long I would be taking some off.
I called in and they manually tagged shares to my account and was able to short. They said that they are only doing manual allocations on TVIX now because most of the shares out there are shorted already. There is hardly anything left to short.
I did that in 2000 and it took me 3 years to recover. Never again. I'd rather take a 10% loss than a 50% loss. In 2008 financials never came back though I doubt that will happen during this correction.
Good thing because the price went higher. Fidelity said that shares available to borrow of TVIX are so tight that you have to call in and have them tag them to your account. I guess everyone and their brother is shorting this puppy. Basically this means that for almost every long share available to borrow there is someone shorting it. Crazy isn't it. I'll keep calling in as the price goes higher. It is a hassle but worth the trouble.