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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

raybans2 495 posts  |  Last Activity: 7 hours ago Member since: Dec 15, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Transports down BIG as oil sells off

    by ndibari73 Oct 27, 2015 12:29 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    Normally I don't like taxes because most of them get syphoned off and never make it to their intended destination but in the case of oil I think they should put a $10 a gallon tax on gasoline so I don't have to breath what comes out of the tail pipes of SUVs. If they want to screw up our air then let them pay for the privilege to do so. I drive a plug in hybrid so it won't affect me by much. I go to the gas station about 4 times a year.

    After that people will be buying half as much gasoline and oil will go back to $30 a barrel and shale oil can wait for another 10 to 15 years to become viable again. And the next boom industry will be those that will help upgrade the grid to get remotely generated wind and solar energy over HVDC lines to where the demand is. And in energy storage technologies.

  • Reply to

    did aapl just beat

    by opkhealth Oct 27, 2015 4:37 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    they exceeded expectations but I don't know if that is considered a beat by the market. they always exceed expectations.

  • Reply to

    Come on

    by ducface22 Oct 27, 2015 3:30 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    What did the shorts do. We didn't make it go down.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    owning UVXY is the same as owning TVIX. I don't do predictions. I do trends.

  • Reply to

    What the heck happened to my largest position?

    by ndibari73 Oct 27, 2015 3:51 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 4:23 PM Flag

    One can take comfort in the fact that TVIX is only down 77% in the last year which is a pretty #$%$ decay in my opinion. Normally it would be in the 90s. So longs have luck on their side, so it would seem. I'm pretty disappointed in this low decay rate.

  • Reply to

    they are really putting tvix down after hours

    by opkhealth Oct 27, 2015 4:17 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 4:19 PM Flag

    I ignore after hours except to go bargain hunting because it doesn't mean anything. The pros have gone home for the day.

  • Reply to

    Im gonna love taking $'s from you Shorts

    by finallytherenow Oct 27, 2015 10:08 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    Put your entire life savings into TVIX and you will love it even more. I will watch.

  • Reply to

    This is some board

    by ducface22 Oct 27, 2015 4:07 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    No, I don't think so. I don't short most stocks. Only this one. I am a long by nature. But keep this in mind. What kind of mind set would buy a stock long that is going down most of the time and then ask yourself if you think that this person is being honest with themselves or others. I think what you have here are a lot of people who think they are clever until they run out of money and realize they were not clever, just normal and wrong.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    Google chrome does the same thing. So I displayed a 1 year chart of MSFT and did a comparison with TVIX and only the last 5 days or so of TVIX show on the chart but the entire year of MSFT shows up. I don't think that it is the browser unless they are both using a plugin like flash and it is flash causing it. Any ETF shows only 5 days of data max. Stocks are unaffected. My broker web page, fidelity, works fine.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    I love this ETN. I hope they never get rid of it. I will short this for the rest of my life if I can. If they kill TVIX I will just move over to UVXY and short it since they track each other precisely. This is the best investment I have come across since I started investing. Nothing even comes close.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    actually, it seems to be the case that all the ETFs I try, even SPY, shows 1 day. Stocks on the other hand show what you ask for. This is on yahoo finance.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    When I put in a stock symbol and ask for a 1 year chart I get 1 year. When I ask for a 1 year chart for TVIX I get 1 day. You see it differently?

  • Reply to


    by ralphaviv Oct 27, 2015 10:55 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    You should sell your car, house, and cash in the college funds for your children and go all in so you can make a bundle so we can watch you make billions upon billions upon billions. Just remember us little guys when you buy your mansion. Don't forget to let a few scraps from the table fall our way. It will be greatly appreciated.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    I find it interesting how it is always tomorrow. When every prediction fails to come true then it gets said that it will come true the next day. But like a broken clock that is right twice a day they will surely be right once in a while and then they say, "see, we were right and you were wrong." What I cannot comprehend is who thinks like this? Who would agree to be an actor in this play and actually imagine that the audience, that would be us, actually believes that the play is real when in reality the audience knows it is a play and only the actors think it is real.

    It kind of makes you wonder. And this I believe is fundamentally the basis of why we elect some of the people that we do. Because for many the play is reality to them. They read the script and act accordingly. You cannot make this stuff up on your own. Someone has to teach you how to be a loyal and obedient follower of an ideology. Because no one would come to these conclusions if left unto themselves as anything that conflicts with real life experiences is usually rejected if someone hasn't messed up your head before hand. Like a college professor with a mission.

  • Reply to

    Why so much hate between longs and shorts

    by ma5terroj Oct 27, 2015 11:19 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    Now days the arbitrage trading has to be done in milliseconds because all the ETFs that track the same indexes have charts that lie precisely on top of each other. In many cases you ask your self if both plots are being shown because the line from one blocks out the line of the other precisely right down to a single display pixel. So it is obvious to me that the arbitrage trading is working precisely and the people trading these ETFs is having zero influence. Go to big charts and comparison plot TVIX and UVXY and they lay precisely on top of each other. So if the shorts here were influencing TVIX down then why has UVXY tracked TVXY? Is someone going to say that it is because the number of people shorting both ETFs are doing in the exact ratio for both of them? Sorry, but that concept is too silly to even consider.

    However if you do a 2 year comparison it is clear that either UVXY or TVIX changed their trading algorithm because eventually they deviate gradually away from each other. But today they seem to be trading with the same algorithm. Meaning the futures they buy and how long they hold them before rolling them over seems to be very closely matched. In fact it makes you wonder of one of them started to try and emulate the other.

  • Reply to

    Why so much hate between longs and shorts

    by ma5terroj Oct 27, 2015 11:19 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    With actual stocks the short seller actually influences the price downward when they short. However with ETFs they have no influence because of arbitrage trading. Assuming that the longs here are smart enough to realize this, a big assumption, one is left with the assumption that they must hate the fact that people are trying to make money doing the opposite as they are because it forces them to acknowledge that there are people who betting on them losing money and that upsets them.

    It is my opinion that the people making money in a position never express anger or frustration with people on the opposite of the trade. So with that I think you can figure out what is going on. It is pretty obvious.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 2:18 PM Flag

    Every time the underlying stocks in an ETF change in price they have to rebalance. This causes them to buy or sell late which means that they lose gains or incur losses. Some larger ETFs seem to keep these rebalancing losses to a minimum with high speed trading but not all ETF have been able to solve this decay issue efficiently enough. Just plot the companion bull and bear market ETF from the same ETF company and you will see that the average of the two ETFs keeps going down. Meaning if you short them both you make money at almost no risk as long as they decay faster than your borrowing interest rate. You used to be able to make more money doing this 10 years ago because they are getting better. Also the higher the volatility the more they have to rebalance and thus the more their rebalancing losses. So you can make more doing this when the market volatility is high. But you also have to rebalance between the two as you want the total amount of money invested in both ETFs to be approximately equal. Because if you don't do this then they won't cancel each other out precisely.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Don't have a position in XIV. Have one in TVIX.

    Didn't you get the memo? You should be shorting XIV. Never buy an ETF long. Always short the ETF that goes in the opposite direction you think the market will go so you can cash in on the decay. All ETFs have decay. Not nearly as much at TVIX but you may as well profit on it anyway.

  • It seems that the price history for TVIX and UVXY have been deleted. I had to go to big charts to compare their long term performance. This has interesting implications. Normally a stock has to change its symbol to get this to happen.

  • Reply to

    Shorts: Question

    by visit_youarguedotcom Oct 26, 2015 2:16 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Oct 27, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    I had not noticed that TVIX and UVXY track almost perfectly but UVXY calls itself short term and not X2. Might look into shorting them and see if I can get lower borrowing cost. They are more heavily traded so maybe shares are easier to get. However from looking at their message board a LOT of people are already shorting it. So maybe not.

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