It seems that the price history for TVIX and UVXY have been deleted. I had to go to big charts to compare their long term performance. This has interesting implications. Normally a stock has to change its symbol to get this to happen.
I had not noticed that TVIX and UVXY track almost perfectly but UVXY calls itself short term and not X2. Might look into shorting them and see if I can get lower borrowing cost. They are more heavily traded so maybe shares are easier to get. However from looking at their message board a LOT of people are already shorting it. So maybe not.
you don't want to be more than 25% of your account by the time the VIX gets to its peak value. But since the VIX often reverses before I can get to 25% I might only get 10%
Even if there was no tendency for the market to favor one week over another there would still be a week that was on average the worse week of the year.
It is a tracking stock. So people can buy or sell as much as hey want and CS will create or retire shares to make up the difference so the price pf TVIX precisely tracks the underlying. So what do you expect to accomplish?
People at the #$%$ table get the same feeling. Why else would they gamble money on a throw of the dice. They feel like winners but walk out losers. And they keep doing it. I never understood it but now I'm starting to get it.
I read an article that the Fed wants to get inflation above 2% and may consider negative interest rates to achieve that. They pay you to borrow money.
Tvix was $112,000 when it initiated and the VIX was at 18. So just how much difference would it have made had the VIX been at 14 or 22. Seriously, did this even occur to you?
So why this week? Why not last week or next week? Why this week specifically?
So you think the people investing in VIX futures are smarter than the people investing in the DOW. How can you know that for sure? How do you know it is not the other way around, that the VIX went off on a tangent and thus it must correct to get back in lime with the DOW?
The truth is all you know is that there is a discrepancy and one of the two or both will change direction for a merge back to a balanced state. All we know for sure is that a component of TVIX will keep decaying down. All the rest of these changes are just temporary fluctuations that on average cancel out leaving only the component of decay to define the long term trend. The component that represents a guaranteed profit long term.
It would seem that the VIX pricing it's self ahead of the market. You may see this as a buying opportunity but see it as a situation that will eventually have to correct if no new news creates a justification for it. The way I see it, if nothing happens the VIX will fall because it has already priced in something happening.
Selling VIX calls and shorting TVIX are similar strategies. You can wait for the VIX to peak and sell deep in the money VIX calls and then wait for them to become worthless. The CEOB VIX index is currently at $14.34. You can now sell a DEC 16 calls with a $10 strike for $6.85. That is a $2.50 time premium based on an implied volatility of 66%. However I would not do that now. I would wait for the VIX to double and then start selling calls. And keep trading them in for new ones as the VIX declines and the old ones become worthless. Obviously you should do this with a very small amount of your account value in case you start selling too soon and the VIX keeps going up. Selling calls is VERY risky.
Do the opposite of what longs say and you will be fine. Just ask any long who has been doing what they say if they have made money. And there is your answer.
The amount we export to China isn't equal to one tenth of what has been injected into our economy due to oil price declines. So I don't understand the infatuation with China. They don't impact our economy very much other than to steal middle class jobs but those are trends that last decades.
How can you know that? You sound like the gypsy fortune teller with her crystal ball and scarf around her head. Do you read palms as well?