Why would I not buy Xmas presents for my family because Turkey shot down a Russian plane? Because I might think I need the money for a nuclear bomb shelter instead? I mean really.
Actually, I have only seen people express happiness over this. Many people are glad the Turks did this. I for one am one of them. Russia attacks Turk allies and the Turks support their allies. The Russians are supposed to be attacking ISIS. They need to chose their targets better. Just walking around in Islamic garb doesn't make you a valid target.
This is a very loose connection. Other things matter more. As you will see this event will likely have little effect.
Have you looked at a 3 month chart? I don't believe in using charts to predict the future but they are certainly accurate at showing what's been happening. Yes, it looks like longs have been loving their lives.
How will this cause US companies to be less profitable. We haven't been doing as much trade with Russia since they invaded Ukraine so the economic impact of less trade with Russia has already happened. No one thinks this will make it significantly worse.
If we go into recession before the next election surely a Republican will be elected. So that is all the Democrats care about now.
Republicans have wanted to raise rates because they are claiming that these low rates are creating another bubble. The current administration wants rates low until after the election because their goals are short term.
The fed seems to think we need higher inflation than we currently have and is the reason they haven't raised rates this time. Just about every time they raise rates or lower them in the past, circumstances were different so the precise reasons are different. So there is no simple conclusions to be drawn that if they do this then it means that. Because their motivations are always different. It is better to analyze each circumstance based on what is happening at that time than to apply simple rules that are based on circumstances in the past that are not the same as today.
The problem with the feds inflation concepts is they worked well before globalization but not so well now. Now supply and demand are global concepts and thus influencing rates here in the US isn't going to change china's influence on US inflation.
The wells are already drilled so the cost to drill them has already been incurred. Now they pump to get their money back.
Stock brokers and investment bankers are just getting up in the morning, going to work and doing their jobs and not thinking much more about the over all picture. They are just trying to make sales as they always have. It doesn't get any more complicated than that. They haven't a clue what is going to happen 3 months from now. No one does. There is no conspiracy. People aren't as smart as Hollywood movies make them out to be. Most people are quite dumb actually. It is amazing they even have their jobs. If anything happens to upset the markets everyone will be caught off guard. No one will have known for valid reasons it was going to happen. And you can't count the people who always say something was going to happen because obviously they are going to be right eventually just like a broken clock.
Only people with legal status, like with a visa or a green card. We are now giving a drivers license to people who are here illegally and would be deported if immigration authorities knew their status. If you over stay your visa in Europe I think you will find it difficult to get a drivers license there.
Also illegal aliens were allowed to get their drivers license in California. The freeways are noticeably more crowded already. So much for lowing green house gasses.
Everyone is expecting a rate rise in Dec. So exactly what should we be uncertain about?
I think they have just said they cannot make up their minds. Brain locked. Stalled. Incapable of making a decision.
Because certainty to me means they raise rates as expected. So what is uncertainty?
Low interest rates will make it easier for these small drillers to wait out the dips. The large oil companies are so diversified they will survive anything. For one they act as middle men to get oil from all over the world to their intended markets in which case the price of oil doesn't matter. They just take a cut. When they load the oil it has already been sold at a profit.
Economic events play out too slow for this ETN. You can lose 90% of your investment before an event actually becomes relevant enough to scare investors into action.
He doesn't know. He just said it because that is what he is hoping will happen. He doesn't know what will happen. Nobody knows. Nobody will ever know in a time frame that matters for this ETN. Because anything that is predictable is gradually priced into the market. What impacts the VIX enough to profit from it is the unexpected. And you cannot predict the unexpected.