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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

raybans2 205 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 17, 2014 11:57 AM Member since: Dec 15, 2005
  • Here is my logic. The VIX may go higher if this is a larger market correction. But then this could be another fake out so I wanted to get at least something short so I would have some skin in the game. If this is the start of a greater correction and the VIX goes higher I will short some more. I fully expect my profits on this early position to not be that wonderful. But I wanted a lower entry just in case this is all the higher it goes. At least then I will be making something be it a modest amount, but it will give me some pocket change at least.

  • Reply to


    by cyclopsfighter Jul 31, 2014 9:12 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 31, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    I was stopped out and I'm waiting for my new short entry point. We both want the same thing. We both want TVIX to peak. I just ride down the obvious decline whereas you try to ride up the elusive peak, that is, if you can time it before you lose most of your stake which is a problem I do not have to worry about because I do not hold a position that is eroding.

    Even now you cannot know for sure if this is the start of a new major VIX peak as it might fizzle. I am hoping that it is the start of a new major VIX peak but I don't have to worry if I am wrong because I am not holding a position that is decaying with time. So I can wait until I am right for sure at no risk to myself. When it peaks I will short. The price will go down as it always does and its price will continue to erode which is also good, that is, if you are short.

    I am a little disappointed that TVIX has not gone up very much considering that the VIX is at 15.5 already. The VIX goes up 16% and TVIX is up 12.5%? What happened to the 2X?

    I was absent because I was out on bereavement and then I went on a scheduled vacation. It doesn’t seem like I miss much though. I dumped everything at the end of last week when I concluded that I was making nothing for being in the market so I decided that it was not worth the risk exposure. And with all the correction talk I am concerned that people are talking themselves into as self fulfilled prophecy. These things and build on them selves. Also the market out flows are not that encouraging.

  • Reply to

    Lots of shorts need to cover this

    by chip_8086 Jul 31, 2014 9:43 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 31, 2014 11:25 AM Flag

    I play the dark side of TVIX.

    Here is the problem. TVIX's underlying is a futures contract so its value decays with time as all futures contracts do. Thus one needs to be on the side where that decay is to your advantage. So to do that you wait for the market correction and then you short TVIX at its peak because your timing can be nearly spot on. However the long has to play a guessing game where they buy before the correction hoping that they are right about market conditions. Whereas if you buy after the correction you know that you are right because you are there at the peak or close to it, depending on how you average into your position.

    You can make the same amount of money on the way down as on the way up however it is a lot easier to observe the peak before the decline because it always occurs right after the VIX spikes. The stock always comes back down and then continues to erode which is only icing on the cake.

    For the most part the only people making money consistently on TVIX are the shorts. Whereas most of the longs eventually complain that the SEC should delist TVIX. Hang around here long enough and you will see. Only the shorts stick around. The longs all disappear never to be heard from again.

  • Reply to

    Lots of shorts need to cover this

    by chip_8086 Jul 31, 2014 9:43 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 31, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    You don't understand how a tracking ETN works. All the shorts could cover in one hour and it would not impact the price by a penny.

    Besides, if the shorts were using stop losses like I was they are already out. What we want now is for the market to correct and for the TVIX stock price to rocket up so that we can refresh our short positions.

    Currently I am 90% cash and hoping for a 20% market correction.

    I would not buy this stock long as it is too risky. But I will wait for it to go up and then short it which is safer.

  • Reply to


    by stunningzero Jul 28, 2014 7:07 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 29, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    I am aware that institutional investors are pulling money out of the market. That would be hedge funds and pension funds and the like. But I was unaware that someone was holding up a sign saying "I'm big money and I'm pumping so I can dump." I think you imagination is filling in the gaps.

    Retail investors on the other hand are still adding money to the market. I am assuming that much of this has to do with the fact that 401K account money keeps trickling in.

    I for one have decided to take a breather. I would feel much better if we had a nice 20% correction after which I could come back in and feel a bit safer about valuations.

    Also much of the concern about over valuations is focused on these over priced high fliers that we all know are over priced. No experienced investor is going to buy these stocks knowing that they will get hit very hard in any correction. Of course you have newbies with little experience who will imagine that "this time is different" and need to be taught that things are never different. Lucky for us or how can us more experienced investors make money?

    In any event, I'm out for now.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 29, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    I cannot find anything that confirms this. I hope they don't delist it. It is a wonderful way to make money if you short it.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 29, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    it does not show up as a menu selection on the summary page but you can get there by typing in UVXY into the "get message board for" field on any message board page.

  • Reply to

    Time to lighten up on stocks ?

    by dr_klumps Jul 24, 2014 2:58 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 28, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    I did that. I sold most everything. I am now about 80% cash. The issues I was concerned with that lead to this probably do not affect AGNC. AGNC is its own beast dependent on future interest rates only. The economy could be crashing and if interest rates are going to go down then it will go up.

    That said, I would not base my investment strategy on interest rates going up. Fed policy has gotten very political under Obama. You would be investing based on political outcomes. That is not something I want to try and predict.

  • Reply to


    by beerleaguesucked Jul 25, 2014 2:13 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 25, 2014 11:32 PM Flag

    In case you have not noticed. All that this turmoil did was keep TVIX from declining at its normal rate. It has not gone up. It only stopped losing money. I get it that for many that this is great news. But seriously, if this is the good news then what is the attraction?

  • Reply to

    Get in this before it’s too late

    by istarbeaghse1973 Jul 22, 2014 12:20 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 23, 2014 7:04 AM Flag

    Another way to lose money. Thus people from this board will flock to it.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 23, 2014 7:02 AM Flag

    I have been saying exactly that for 6 months and most longs don't understand that until they actually experience it. It was obvious to me the second I looked at the chart. But.the people who buy this stock seem to miss this. I think it can be concluded that if you would buy this stock in the first place it says something about you ability to understand the things that seem immediately obvious to the shorts. For some reason they over look the obvious and just see those occasional large spikes and image that another one will happen soon not comprehending that it is impossible to predict.

  • Reply to

    SEE YA AT $2.50 tomorrow morning.

    by jim.beamdrunk Jul 22, 2014 2:29 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 22, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    Yes, good news on the Asian front.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 22, 2014 5:57 PM Flag

    It was worse than that. The banks didn't want to make no doc loans because they were afraid of the liability but Fannie and Freddy told them that if they didn't make them that they would not buy their good loans. So basically they were forced into making these bad loans. And then the government sues them as a political move because it makes them look like they are doing something but all they are really doing is showing everyone how dumb they were in the first place for encouraging the banks to make these loans. Of course if you are uninformed and believe everything they tell you then you will believe what they say. Most of the time that is the case.

    Eventually it will go full circle again. PACs will start pressuring the government about the poor not being able to get loans and this will cause the government to pressure Fannie and Freddy. They in turn will pressure the banks and this will lead to another financial crisis. The Republicans will fight all these efforts to get banks to make bad loans but in the end Democrats will blame Republicans as if somehow they were part of the ruse.

    It is like being trapped in one of those circular scenss you see on the twilight zone except this is really happening.

  • and Obama won't be invited to it.

  • Anyone could have seen this coming. You bite the hand that feeds you and guess what? No more food. Banks have been fined three times the price of the loan for as much as a typo. So obviously they see this kind of loan as unprofitable and no longer want to write them. Who gets hurt? The poor are hurt because they get their loans through the FHA. And I ask you. Which party did this?

    All they had to do was pass a law that loans had to be fully documented and that if any loan went bad that the bank who wrote it would be partially liable for the losses enough to make sure they would not want to write a bad loan. That was it. It would have solved the whole problem. But the Democrats wanted blood and now no one will be willing to write these loans. Morons.

    The funny thing about this is that the only people who would care about this are Democrats. You Democrats really need to start electing smarter people. The ones you have been electing are making things worse.

    Personally I don't think they do it on purpose. They are just too dumb to perceive ahead of time what the consequences of their actions will be until they see it after it is too late. Smart people don't do that. Smart people comprehend it before it happens and act accordingly. This isn't what is happening folks.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 22, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    They certainly make a lot of money on it. Think about it. They keep selling shares to longs and the shares go down in value until they reverse split and then they sell more shares. I am sure they are blown away by the fact that people keep coming back for more.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 22, 2014 10:32 AM Flag

    Hey, no one is perfect. Besides, they might of had no idea that they were TG when they killed and raped them. Give them a benefit of a doubt. TG bigots have feelings too you know. I propose that in order to reform this behavior that we assign 3 TG bigots with every TG as punishment for their narrow mindedness. Problem solved.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 22, 2014 9:34 AM Flag

    This is not correct either. It precisely tracks the VIX futures.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 21, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    I believe that LBGT are unrepresented in the professional homeless field and therefore are discriminated against. When was the last time you saw a transgender at the freeway entrance holding up a sign stating their dire homeless condition. This is a national disgrace. We need more LBGT diversity in the professional homeless field.

    To this end I have been thinking about starting a company called LBGT homeless international. Straight people need not apply. You application will not be considered. We are an equal rights organization so stay away.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 21, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    No, that is not correct. It does not accumulate. It retraces back to where it was each time. You can get a little overlap causing it to move for a few days in row up, but it immediately starts to go back down again.

    A more accurate analogy for this stock is a boat that is trying to go up river and its motor breaks down most of the time. Every so often the motor stays on for a few days but then breaks down again. In the end the boat ends up further and further down river. Think of it that way.

    If you are long you are trying to fight the current with a decrepit boat. If you are short you are riding the current down the river without a lot of concern. If the boat moves up river for a few days the short is not concerned because he knows the motor is going to break down again and in no time he will be back to where it was and then further on down river.

    If you look at it that way you might understand a little better how to trade this which is to short it and not to buy it long.

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