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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

raybans2 213 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Dec 15, 2005
  • Reply to

    buying buying buying

    by sharonmazrawi Apr 18, 2016 3:03 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 18, 2016 3:15 PM Flag

    can you explain your logic as to how you came to this conclusion.

  • Reply to

    VIX down .24

    by 212swat Apr 18, 2016 12:43 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 18, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    This stock does not track the VIX. Also we are now getting more normal behavior for this stock since volatility has declined. Which was for it to keep going down steadily and then occasionally rocketing up but rarely enough to compensate people for their losses if they decided to hold for a long time.

  • Reply to

    Open at $5 plus tomorrow

    by berchik Apr 12, 2016 12:57 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 13, 2016 6:06 PM Flag

    How did that work out for you? My recommendation is to keep your day job.

  • Reply to

    Inflation - Wage Inflation ......

    by dr_klumps Apr 4, 2016 10:41 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 5, 2016 4:45 PM Flag

    Inflation from where? It matters. Because the Fed can only influence inflation that is born from the US. If it comes from outside the US the Fed can have no influence, obviously. I don't think most people understand inflation anymore. The old model that higher wages due to labor shortages was responsible for inflation doesn't apply anymore because with foreign jobs now competing with US jobs there hasn't been a labor shortage here in the US for decades. So what exactly drives US born inflation? Probably nothing at the moment and that is why we haven't had US born inflation, the kind that the Fed can do something about, in a very long time. The fact is that the Fed can't control global inflation. And I cannot see how we get inflation any other way as the job market is now global. Not until their are world wide labor shortages will companies need to use higher wages to compete for scarce labor. And we aren't there yet. Not even close.

    Things happen for a reason, not simply because they happened before in the past. If the conditions no longer exist then they don't happen anymore. And they haven't been. So that is why I say that anyone who is expecting inflation for the same reasons we have had it 30 years ago then they haven't figured out that we aren't in Kansas anymore.

    But it has been my observation that most people don't understand most things. Not well enough so they understand when a changes to conditions makes old theories no longer applicable. In other words, you cannot have the "effect" without the "cause". No labor shortage then no wage inflation. And that is the situation we are in.

  • Reply to

    ndibari is long at $4.25

    by ndibari73 Apr 1, 2016 2:57 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    UWTI and DWTI

  • Reply to

    ndibari is long at $4.25

    by ndibari73 Apr 1, 2016 2:57 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    try UTWI and DWTI. There are a lot of shares available to short. And it is actually a more profitable trade.

  • Reply to

    ndibari is long at $4.25

    by ndibari73 Apr 1, 2016 2:57 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    I just did it a few hours ago.

  • Reply to

    ndibari is long at $4.25

    by ndibari73 Apr 1, 2016 2:57 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 1:21 PM Flag

    No, not 3X volatility, 3X ETFs with high volatility. It is a hedge investment so the higher volatility results in higher gains. It takes advantage of the fact that inverse 3X ETFs do better than long 3X ETFs over time. If the volatility is too low it won't even cover your interest on hard to borrow shares. It works best in a sector that is getting hammered because in those sectors volatility is always high.

    I am not going to propose a theory as to why 3X inverse ETFs do better than 3X long ETFs. It doesn't matter why. They just do. And since it is hedged there is little to no risk to being short. Even on a day with a large market change your net change will still be small but consistently in the direction you want.

    To do this you need your account set up to automatically make available to you hard to borrow shares.

  • Reply to

    ndibari is long at $4.25

    by ndibari73 Apr 1, 2016 2:57 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    NUGT and DUST work well with this trade as well.

  • Reply to

    ndibari is long at $4.25

    by ndibari73 Apr 1, 2016 2:57 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 12:53 PM Flag

    UGAZ, DGAZ. Any energy ETF is high volatility but 3X are very high volatility. Short both. It makes money. You can back test it. You have to rebalance weekly or when the money in one gets significantly larger than the other. Rebalancing always goes in your favor on average. It lowers risk.

  • Reply to

    ndibari is long at $4.25

    by ndibari73 Apr 1, 2016 2:57 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 12:16 PM Flag

    There are easier and safer ways to make money. Like shorting two high volatility 3X long / inverse ETFs. Very little risk and nearly always makes money. I say nearly because there must be a time that it doesn't. I just haven't found it yet. You can retire on this.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 10:44 AM Flag

    The VIX is not the underlying investment for this ETN.

  • raybans2 by raybans2 Apr 4, 2016 10:42 AM Flag

    After observing TVIX for over two years I have come to realize two characteristics. During normally low volatility times TVIX decays at a rapid rate but when it does spike up the gains are higher then than at any other time. During higher volatility times the decay becomes nearly non existent but the gains on spikes are not very high by comparison. Also during higher volatility times it is hard to find the low entry point forcing many to pay too much. During lower volatility the low entry point keeps going lower which causes people to lose money at a rapid rate.

    My investment activity has declined to nearly nothing since last summer. I think we are too close to the kind of a major correction which typically proceeds a recession but not close enough to exploit it. I'll probably start shorting the indexes when the economy starts showing signs of recession which hasn't happened yet. I am also concerned that we are too close to such a correction to keep shorting TVIX except when the VIX is 30 or above. Because investors are too much on edge about the health of the economy. Because at some point the VIX will shoot above 50 when this correction occurs.

AGNC
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