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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

raybans2 278 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Dec 15, 2005
  • I have been out of town but I got back just in time for this wonderful event.

    I LOVE this stock.

    Anyone else load up the truck? I'm riding bit low now.

    Don't forget to set those stops in case Obama or Putin decide to go nuclear. If you survive the holocaust you do not want to be broke. Of course at this point 38, 45, and SW 40 cal as well as twelve gage buck shot will be more valuable than money. I'm looking for a good semi-auto 12 gage shot gun.

    Longs, don't tell me. You held through the peak. Maybe next time.

  • Reply to


    by winston10024 Jul 17, 2014 3:45 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 18, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    How did that work out?

    It was a plane crash, not a market crash.

  • Reply to

    This has got to be a buy under $2.70...

    by rbgambler99 Jul 16, 2014 3:38 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 16, 2014 11:58 PM Flag

    Did you mean to say it is a short? Because longs don‘t need a stop loss. As what is the point as it will get triggered in a few days.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 16, 2014 11:55 PM Flag

    Actually, your chances of being wrong are pretty low. It is not zero but close to it.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 16, 2014 11:51 PM Flag

    I get it now. You are a conservative acting like a liberal so as to make liberals look clueless. You had me going for a while there.

  • Reply to

    Obama worst President In history

    by mredlark Jul 16, 2014 1:46 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 16, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    You cannot blame the liberals for wanting to control the press. If you were a diehard liberal wouldn't you want to sensor the news by having them mostly talk about the things that liberals approve? Why wouldn't they want to control the press? The point is to get others to believe that you are being successful in your accomplishments. Reality is unimportant so long has your message is well received. And if you have done a good job of intimidating those who get out of line then the message will be well received. Face it; it is the same thing as a religion. Go into a church and say that you are an atheist and observe the reaction. It’s the same GD thing. No difference. Liberalism is a form of worship. And just like religion a typical indoctrinated liberal is afraid of expressing anything that contradicts the liberal dogma for fear of being excommunicated. And they are relentless in this regard. As the liberal attack dogs will make you pay if you have fallen from the fold. They will make an example of you.

    If you want to participate in an open minded political debate you cannot do this in the company of liberals. Only in the company of more tolerant conservatives can you expect to have such a debate without feeling threatened by hostile attitudes toward you.

    It is a full 180 of what I remember as a child when the liberals were the more open minded and the conservatives were the more close minded, religious nut cases aside. But then they say that these things bounce back and forth. I suspect there is a psychological explanation to it all.

    I come from a mostly conservative family and we all treat the gay and lesbian relatives with respect and ensure that they know that this is a non issue. Yet you have liberals that imagine that this is never the case. The fact is that the liberals imagine a lot of things. Their imaginations run wild with distortions of reality that are as out dated as their entire concept of how the world should be.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 16, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Israel does not impact the flow of oil unless the Arab oil cartel would threaten to cut back oil exports in support of the Palestinians and they have not done that in recent history. The problem that oil exporting countries have is that their populations have grown to the point, due to oil wealth, that if they cut oil exports they would immediately have a situation on their hands that they don't want to deal with which makes supporting the Palestinians less of a priority than it was before. It is a kind of a situation like what Russia experienced where their medaling in Ukrainian politics caused everyone to start pulling money out of Russian and their currency and economy started to tank. It is a global economy now days and this causes countries who don’t play nice to experience economic consequences. Thus tyrannical countries are reined in to a degree by the realities of globalism.

    In the past most countries economies were determine by the supply and demand dynamics within their own borders. That is no longer the case. That is why we no longer have inflation when the Fed floods the economy with money. It is because China and the like keep selling products at dirt cheap prices because they avoid inflation in their own counties by manipulating their currency and due to an excess of labor from their farms and thus they don’t experience a shortage of labor when our economy over heats. As a result the salaries of the Chinese worker remains low no matter what our Fed does. The old inflation models are obsolete. We need global models because inflation is now a global phenomenon.

  • Reply to

    Conservative Utopia....Obama the commie devil

    by timberjoseph Jul 15, 2014 9:31 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 16, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    One thing I find interesting is all the people who complain about the unfairness of the taxes yet if you look at who is paying taxes today, the wealthy pay a higher share and the poor pay a lower share today than they did before going back to WWII. This is because they have closed most of the loop holes for the wealthy and most of the poor pay no taxes at all which was not the case before. The government and other web pages have records from which you can easily determine this yet many people believe a different reality. So what does that say about the politicians that are misleading these people? Does it say that they are simply ignorant and thus unqualified to do their job or does it say that they are fully aware of this fact and simply manipulating their constituents so that they can get the vote. Take your pick. I think it is a little of both as most of these politicians don't seem very intelligent to me and the ones that are intelligent use their abilities for their own benefit, not others. But then what would you expect? Have you ever met anyone who doesn't do this? Just ask anyone if they send extra money to the government for the common good you will have your answer. That pretty much says what people really think and what they really do and what they really believe, aside from the BS they say to make others and themselves believe differently.

    What has changed is that we now have a bar bell economy because we have allowed other countries to manipulate the valuation of their currency so that they can take our jobs. The solution is not to redistribute wealth. The solution is to punish currency manipulators and bring our jobs back home. People want good jobs more than they want hand outs. Currently we are not doing this.

  • Reply to

    Conservative Utopia....Obama the commie devil

    by timberjoseph Jul 15, 2014 9:31 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 16, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    When I read your post I was reminded of several things.

    1) Only about 50% of the people in the US pay taxes and most of those that don't receive supplemental benefits.
    2) Government jobs have become welfare for people with degrees that have no defined career path. Government unions then threaten politicians with their ability to turn elections allowing them to get wages and benefits beyond what people would be willing to work for and higher than the people who pay the taxes to pay for them. Government employees retire at age 55 while their private sector counter parts work until 65 or even later while paying the taxes to support their retired government counter parts who are making more in retirement than they make at their regular job.
    3) Cities are going bankrupt because most of their money is going to pay for people who no longer work because of inflated salaries and benefits.
    4) In California where most of the people are impoverished Hispanics, there is little to no money left over for new infrastructure because most is now diverted to supplement the incomes of a disproportionate population of impoverished, a large percentage who are not here legally.
    5) In California, one exception to this is that funding goes to a new high speed train. But if you ask anyone if they plan to ride on it most say no. We have high speed transportation already. They call them planes. We don't need trains as well. Most plan to continue to use planes because it makes sense and it is faster and it cost about the same. We have normal trains to get you to the airports.
    6) No one cares about same sex marriage except for the radical religious who just happen to be Republican. That is not the fault of other Republicans. I am Republican and atheist and I oppose the religuous agenda. If the Democrats were against the redistribution of wealth I would be a Democrat but they use this promise to buy votes so it is easier for them to get elected, not because they really care.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 12, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    No one would be so dumb to lose that much on a stock unless you have a gambling problem.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 12, 2014 1:23 AM Flag

    It depends They don't seem to be crushing TVIX shorts.

    It is not good to favor either the long or the short side. Short or buy long when it makes sense. Right now the Fed is proping up the market. You can debate the reason why or whether it is good or bad but it does not matter. They are doing it and that is all investors should care about. It doesn't even matter if it was their intension to prop up the stock market. It is what it is.

    A market nutral portfolio should have as many short as long positions.

  • Reply to


    by outsidetoinside Jul 11, 2014 2:25 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 12, 2014 1:12 AM Flag

    You know you can delete your own post. Just saying.

  • Reply to

    What you think you just got???

    by ggray1956 Jul 11, 2014 8:56 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 12, 2014 1:10 AM Flag

    Exactly. I think you have it ow.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 12, 2014 12:56 AM Flag

    Some people work in fields that if you don't have enough intellegence you cannot complete the task that needs to be done. The managers in these fields are continuously in a position of assessing the abilities of employees to make sure that they don't provide them with task that are beyond their abilities. You have some employees who can perform the most complex task with little effort and of course they are in high demand. And then you have others who cannot perform much simplier task if you gave them a life time to do it. They simply cannot comprehend the solution and never will. So you find jobs that don't put them in this position. Jobs where the task can be understood by most and the impact they have by not making the best decisions is not severe. Everyone can be a productive contributor but not everyone can do many things that only some can do. But that isn't a problem unless you make it into a problem by not seeing things as they are but rather seeing them differently.

    You may never observe this that much in life if you work in a field were the impact of someone doing a good or a bad job is hard to measure in which case it is somewhat subjective. Who can really judge the impact that a history professor has on his students? It is subjective. But then assign someone the task of optimizing a complex system and it becomes clear when no solution is forth coming that one did not find the right guy to do the task.

    I have observed that the people who have the ability to solve these complex problems with little effort rarely go around telling others but everyone knows who they are and companies make sure that they don't lose them. When the other guys resign the company says OK. When these talented problem solvers try to resign they get a raises and stock options and then stay. I think it is pretty easy to know where you stand by this measure. There is no BS in this regard.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 12, 2014 12:06 AM Flag

    That is why I keep saying that it will never go to zero. It just keeps geting smaller but never zero.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 11, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    Actually, most people here are not smart. Smart people don't need to learn by making mistakes once they have reached a level of maturity that they are cautious about what they do. They can see it coming before the mistake is made. People who are not smart won't see it coming even if they have made similar mistakes in the past but learn most everything when they experience the pain that comes with loss. From these negative experiences they will eventually learn not to repeat past mistakes but only if they are in the same situation.

    A smart person eventually learns not to make mistakes in the first place by applying insights they have learned. So even though the situation is not the same they sense enough similarity that they are inspired to be cautious and assess the situation more carefully. A smarter person might even see opportunity and make money instead by moving to the other side of the trade. Instead of being a money losing buyer they become a money making seller.

    Personally I do not observe very many smart people trading stocks in the retail market. What I see are a lot of people who want to imagine themselves as smart which causes them to be over confident and make mistakes that could have been avoided with a more cautious mind set. But being cautious requires a lot of hard work. Not as hard for a very smart person but very hard for the person who is not smart at all. And most people are lazy and want to indulge themselves with dissolutions that they are a lot smarter than they really are which leads to them into convincing themselves to do things that they don't fully understand.

    You can be smart and lazy and make mistakes but usually these people are aware of their affliction or are just immature and thus don't utilize their abilities. And of course even smart people make mistakes because you cannot be aware of everything, no one is. What I observe happening most of the time is people thinking too highly of themselves.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 11, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Why complain. You can make steady and consistent money shorting TVIX. Why care about the longs that buy something they do not understand. That is there fault for not trying to understand something before they buy it. Just be glad that they keep buying it so we can short it and make money.

    If you have not noticed, the longs on this message board don't last, only the shorts. That is because they throw in the towel. Thus I have concluded that every 3 to 4 months the owners of TVIX shares cycle through and get replaced by a whole new batch of longs that did not do their research. It is usually expensive to buy what you do not understand. There are so many bad investments out there, not just TVIX.

    I doubt you will find any mutual funds that own this stock. Just retail investors that are too lazy to try and understand what they are buying. If these same investors happen to buy a good stock and make money it is because they got lucky, not because they did research. Because clearly they don't do research or they never would have bought TVIX.

    In their prospectus they clearly state the nature of the ETN. And that is why the SEC won't ask them to be delisted. The SEC only makes sure that they honestly represent the investment which they have. The SEC is not in the business of making sure that an ETF or ETN is a good investment. And the fact that TVIX is a bad investment does not concern them. The SEC expects investors to figure this out on their own. Everyone here is an adult and expected to act like one.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 11, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    I agree. But it hits 20 at least twice a year. Makes for an excellent entry point.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Jul 11, 2014 8:16 AM Flag

    With the manipulation by the fed it would be hard to predict a recession simply by cyclical timing. Better to use economic indicators like rises in unemployment.

  • Reply to

    could it drop to 70 next week? Ouch!

    by nefariouswu Jul 10, 2014 8:57 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Jul 11, 2014 8:11 AM Flag

    A 10% correction won't cause the VIX to go to 40. Maybe 20.

21.25-0.20(-0.93%)Sep 30 4:15 PMEDT

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