You can still make money on this stock. I just made 30% shorting this stock in a few weeks.
With the market at a peak and stalled for 5 months I would say that the long approach has become risker than the short approach. If the the market is in bull mode find good stocks and go long. When the market is in bear mode, or stalled before the drop, find bad stocks and short. Either way you make money and the risk is lower.
If you stick to one approach you make and lose money and they cancel each other out. We are not here to do a little better than break even. Being happy because you broke even rather than lose money isn't a wining strategy.
You should be thinking about what's likely to happen in the future than what has been happening in the past. It's no safer to do this than it is to drive by looking in the rear view mirror of a car and thinking it's OK because you haven't crashed yet. Interest rates have to go up eventually. The only issue is how fast. So it's a matter of bleeding slowly or fast. In any event you bleed.
Interest rates are rising without regard to government central bank influences. People just don't want to own paper that will be worthless in the future so they are dumping. The smart money that is. The dumb money always waits until they lose too much. I get a sense that we are at the beginning of something big.
There is a world wide sell off of bonds. market is flooded with paper and would be buyers are dumping instead. Makes you wonder if this is the start an interest rate uptrend that not even the fed can influence enough to prevent significant declines in value. Even the big names in bond investing are shorting German bonds. Really crazy stuff going on. If you don't understand it then you better not own it.
Which means they create or distroy shares in order to get the ETN to track the underlying. Thus any buys or sells that anyone makes will not influence the price for more than a millisecond. Thus there is no financial motivation to pump or trash this stock because it will have no impact. And that is why the longs and the shorts here should not have an agenda. Because it doesn't matter what they say. Thus if I'm saying it is easier to make money shorting this stock I can assure you that I am not trying to drive this stock down in price because I can#$%$ not possible to do that. I'm just passing on my knowledge of how I have mad a lot of money on this stock. Nothing more.
I don't think you will be posting on the message board a year from now if you keep doing this. Because everyone else who has done what you are doing is gone. They all lost their shirts.
The problem with this strategy is that it is near impossible to predict a market correction within a short enough time frame that is relevant to you making money given the rate at which this stock decays in value due to contango losses. But the VIX always goes back down eventually. Always has and always will. So if you short on a peak at the very time it is happening its hard to get it wrong. Your not guessing because you are living it at the time. You know there is a peak occuring because you can see it. Its not something that has to happen in the future because it is occurring in the present. The only hard part is knowing how long to delay before you start to dollar cost average your entry. So timing your entry is hard but your exist is a no brainer as volatility lows last much longer than volatility peaks. The long on the other hand has to sell within hours to within a day at most to get the gain he hoped for. But human psychology makes this harder to do. I like to have an easy exit because it doesn't matter if I hesitate then. But if I heistate on the entry and miss it then its not a problem because I just wait for the next oppotunity and I'm not losing money while wait because I don't own it.
Basically this stock is so much easier to short.
I love TVIX more than any other stock. But I only short it. And that is why I love it. Currently I don't own a position but it looks like an opportunity to short may be coming up. The reason I prefer to make money the down side is because this stock goes down more than it goes up and I have found that this is the safest way to play this stock. I haven't lost money on this stock yet.
I made 85% return on investment shorting this in 2014. All the longs ever so is talk about gains they will make in the future but never in the past because they have never made money on this stock.
Shorts want to be on the same side as credit sussie because they are the only ones making money consistently. Look at the two year chart.
Its a tracking ETN. No such thing as a squeeze on a tracking ETN. Its price is not influenced by what people buy or sell, just what the underlying does.
Only the shorts make money on this stock consistently
Just short this stock on Volatility peaks. It defines so fast in value that none of those longer term issues matter. They get swamped out by the constant contango decay. The under lying of this ETN is a futures contract which declines in value with time. that's where the money is being made which is casing in on that value Decay.
It's a wonderful stock to short. If you find it near impossible to make money owning a stock then you have found a stock that you can make money on by selling it to others. This is that stock.