Tvix is a short term play so long term indicators cannot predict market movements fast enough to be relevant to a tvix long. You can be right about the market direction and you will still lose money using that as a basis to invest in tvix. And since you cannot predict short term behavior it is nearly impossible to make money buying tvix long. The only predictable long term play is the short position. But your entry point is crucial.
Tvix is a futures contract. Because of that it is always losing value when the VIX is low. When the VIX is high it holds its value but at in a very erratic pattern. When the VIX is low it just keeps going down rapidly. Short when the VIX is high and it is hard to lose.
This depends. Tell that to the deer frozen in the head lights of an on coming car. There are times when patience will kill you because it is an excuse for being complacent about holding a losing position. You can't justify indecision by calling it patience. It is only patience if you have a valid justification for holding which most don't. If you asked most people to explain their reasons for a hold you could shoot holes through their attempts at logic because they aren't really logical.
Its like a guy I know who held his bank stocks through the financial crisis claiming that some day they would rebound. I told him that this is not true. Many times companies don't rebound. They just reverse split and move on. He lost his shirt. His plan was not a plan. It was an excuse not to sell at a loss. And he got stuck by the car as he stood their frozen. Now he's in bonds. I didn't even comment to him on that. Some people are just born to lose their money.
If we go through a 6 month patch of low volatility then this stock will go to 50 cents. There is no unsustainable VIX on the low side. It can stay there for many months. And when the VIX is low then TVIX decays because its a futures contract and the time value declines as you approach expiration. This is something we have not seen since August because higher volatility has allowed TVIX to stay afloat but we are no longer facing the promise of a looming Fed hike as we were last summer. The Fed has backed off. The way I see it we could be back to where we were a year ago. I am not making that as a claim. I am just saying that you can no longer rely on high volatility to keep TVIX from decaying lower as it used to in the past. That is why buying this stock long has been a guessing game. You have better odds in Vegas. And I am not exaggerating. You really do have better odds in Vegas.
Why should it have spiked? How would a terrorist attack in Belgium, a low population country, impact profits of US companies? There is no logical connection that I can see. What connection do you see? Just because?
It will be interesting to see if it gets to 12.5 like in the lower volatility days of 2015 and before and then maybe contango decay will come back and we will head down to $1 a share and a then a reverse split. I'm not making a prediction but volatility has been much lower lately. If it continues like this then I know where this stock is headed as this would be what I'm used to.
Of course North Korea could always attack South Korea or something else to that effect. But unlikely. Even Russia has decided to pull out of Seria. It is kind of hard to fund adventurism when your oil revenues are in the dumps. A good reason to see oil prices stay low aside from the fact that it diverts consumer spending to other things. Like gas guzzling SUVs that pollute our air.
Their biggest mistake was ignoring the long term impact of allowing China to run a trade surplus for 30 years and not recognizing what that would do to middle our class jobs. We traded cheap cell phones for careers. I think that most of these people who have lost their jobs would rather have been paying more for those cell phones in hind sight now that they are working for half pay.
You are not considering who is running the FED now and who is President. It changes things. Different people do different things.
Because the owners have slowed down production or halted it to save the oil in the ground for when the price is higher. So what this means is that production isn't going to fall off a cliff like many anticipated because this will slow down the decline. So those wells that normally went dry after 2 years might last 5 years.
Currently world supply exceeds demand by 1.0 million barrels a day according to the EIA. Production and demand were expected balance in 4th quarter of 2017 but I can't see that happening. I think they are being optimistic. For one, frackers are borrowing money so they can continue to operate in a holding pattern because borrowed money is free now days. Warren Buffet is buying too soon. He always does.
Since credit suisse is a seller then they are short. So if they are making money then what does that say?
it is easy. Buy when the VIX is below 13 to 16, short when the VIX is above 27 to 30. Do anything in between those ranges and you are have no idea what the outcome might be.
If only I had shorted. I don't follow NG but it would seem to me that oil and NG are for the most part two completely different markets. But somehow they seem to be correlated lately.
I don't listen to Obama Speeches because either he is dumb or he thinks we are dumb.
I was stopped out of TVIX so I am waiting for another TVIX spike
It depends. If it takes all year to get there then TVIX won't be impacted much but if it gets there in one day TVIX will rocket up. Volatility is a measure of the "rate" of change of the of the market, not the change. If it happens fast volatility is high but if it happens slow then volatility is low. The measure volatility over a relatively short period of them then they multiply it by a factor that annualizes it. If you sample a stock's change in price once daily and then calculate the standard deviation over many days then they multiply by the square root of 252 which is the number of trading days in a year.