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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

raybans2 369 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Dec 15, 2005
  • Reply to

    Its Official - We Have Bottomed

    by hold4triple Aug 26, 2014 2:32 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 18 hours ago Flag

    It is illogical to assumje that TVIX can have a bottom. Contago decay of the futures contracts that it invests in guarantees that it will always go down except for when the VIX has a major spike up. Then after that it immediately falls back to where it was before the spike and then starts going down again.

  • raybans2 raybans2 18 hours ago Flag

    Do you longs never tire of making predictions that never come true.

  • raybans2 raybans2 20 hours ago Flag

    What I find funny about this is a few years back the Czech were protesting putting a radar in their country for anti missile defense as if the world was now a different place and all would be peaceful from then on.

    What people never fail to grasp is where humans are concerned that nothing really ever changes. How we go about fighting wars may change but there will always be wars. People will always find a justification to want to take over someone else.

    I wonder how this situation works for those people wanting to argue that our military budget can be cut because there are no global concerns. It doesn't sound like this argument is consistent with current affairs. And we can only wonder what China might do in the coming decade with their expanded and modernized military which their new economic might has allowed them to afford. They have been flexing there muscle in the region recently so much so that Japan is considering modifying their constitution so that they can implement a creditable defense against them.

    It all changes in so little time. But this is the way it has always been. People just have short memories. Things are never really different. Only the players and the time lines.

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow is guaranteed to be a Market Sell Off

    by casesuzz Aug 26, 2014 4:29 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 26, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    If you are going to make a claim, it would be nice to hear the logical argument by which you came to this conclusion so that others can vet it so as to know you didn't just make it up out of your imagination.

  • Reply to

    I was just looking at a 5 year AGNC chart and ...

    by raybans2 Aug 18, 2014 11:56 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 26, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    America should not be worried about its dollar status. Other countries act like they are using our currency as a reserve currency as if we should be proud of that as if it gives us some status. When the only reason they do it is so that their currency trades at a lower value than ours so they can beat us on trade which causes us to lose jobs to them. The best thing that could ever happen to us is for other countries to stop stashing our currency in their central banks.

    The US dollar is too strong. That is why all our middle class jobs went over seas. We need a weaker dollar so we can get them back. Other wise you are going to have the bar bell economy forever.

    The prices of imported products need to rise in order for us to be able to make simular products here in the US at a proft. They only way that can happen is with a weaker dollar. Naturally people enjoy getting cheap products from China but that is only a short term thrill. What people would rather have are better paying jobs that would allow them to afford more expensive products from abroad. The key is that those jobs would then exist when they do no now. So you won't have to have a masters degree to make money. This is what people want. What they don't understand is that their leaders aren't doing anything to get that for them.

    And I am starting to question if our leaders even understand the solution. Because it seems that promising freebies to buy votes is only concept that they seem to understand. Anything more complex than that doesn't seem to be on their mind. You never hear them talking about it. And if they were thinking about it you would expect that they would say something. So I have to believe that it isn't even on their mind. Which is frightening to say the least.

  • Reply to

    So R U Buying & Going Long Tvix

    by spectrumplay Aug 26, 2014 12:04 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 26, 2014 2:05 PM Flag

    Using the word "if" in your rational only allows you to feel comfortable with taking risk with unlikely gains. The word "if" is for foolish investors who make a habit out of losing money.

    People who make money count on probable outcomes, not unlikely outcomes. The probable outcome is that TVIX will continue to go down forever with occasional spikes up which you can ride out and keep making money on the down trend if you are short. On the long side you have to get lucky. Now which approach is more probable to make money?

    All you have to do is wait for the VIX to surge up again so you can get a relatively safe point at which to start shorting and then all you can do from then on is make money. The longs on the other hand complain about this ETN being a scam and then in a few months you never hear from them again only to be replaced by a new set of longs who believe in the same broken logic as the longs who left.

    Some people only learn by making mistakes. But if you look at the chart and imagine what you would be going through as you waited for one of those illusive peaks you can save yourself the misery that all the past longs went through.

    Every set of new longs to this message board sound like a broken record. They make the same claims over and over again that never turn out to be true and then they disappear with their tail between their legs. The shorts just sit here and make money and watch the entertainment.

  • Reply to

    I was just looking at a 5 year AGNC chart and ...

    by raybans2 Aug 18, 2014 11:56 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 26, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    Just because you say it doesn't make it true. And yes, putting the breaks on Fed stimulated expansions that were used to sweep problems under the run for political gain have that effect. Stimulus is not a replacement for policies. And who has this last round of stimulus benefited? The rich because stimulus only fuels what is already in place. It takes policies to bring back the middle class jobs to America and stimulus will never do that. We need new trade policies to achieve that. It is beyond me why the Democrats don't do this and instead throw the solution over the wall to the Fed who only has the ability to make the rich richer. My guess it is because they don't need to do anything else to win elections.

  • Reply to

    I was just looking at a 5 year AGNC chart and ...

    by raybans2 Aug 18, 2014 11:56 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 26, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    China won't cash in our debt because that would cause their yuan to rise in value. We would actually want them to do that. If only we could get them to do that then everything would work in our favor. This is one of the ways they manipulate the yuan to the dollar. Instead of allowing the excess dollars to be traded so that the values would adjust to eliminate the trade deficit, they park those excess dollars representing the deficits in our bonds thus avoiding the currency revaluation that would have occurred naturally.

    You are not seeing the over all picture. You are looking at bits and pieces and not connecting the dots.

    With free floating currencies trade deficits should not exist. Because if the excess dollars representing the deficit were traded on a free floating exchange the value of the yuan would rise until there wasn't a trade deficit anymore. The fact that the trade deficit exist in the first place is clear evidence that they are performing currency manipulation.

    China wants a trade deficit because it is the fuel for their rapid growth which is in line with their long term strategic goals which is to achieve global power. To achieve global power you must have economic power first and you must decrease the economic power of others. This is exactly what they are accomplishing. Unfortunately I don't think Obama has the intelligence to comprehend the world from this high of a perspective. He is looking at the trees and does not see the forest. Until he is replaced I don't think anything can be done because is doesn't even realize what the problem is that needs to be solved. And my guess that if anyone tries to explain it to him and he does not get it he just sticks his chin in the air and makes that smug smirk and acts like that his very behavior has resolved the issue. It is rather high schoolish if you ask me.

  • Reply to

    I'm in here 2.61,,,,,,

    by greatbuttnohair Aug 25, 2014 3:36 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 25, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    There is no such thing as cheap for a stock that is always dropping except on rare occations. Because what is cheap today is expensive tomorrow as you will usually be able to get it cheaper then. So I would not buy this stock thinking it is cheap because that implies that it holds value which it doesn't.

    Buying TVIX is like buying a car and then driving it off the lot and then asking what someone else would pay for it the next day. Even if you get it at dealers cost you won't be able to sell it for that a week later. Same thing.

  • The Fed pressured B of A into buying Country Wide and then after they do this the government comes back and sues them but B of A would never have bought CW if they hand known what CW was up to.

    The lesson learned from this is that B of A should have set as a condition that CW claim bankruptcy first before buying them which would have protected B of A from future litigation as the old CW would have ceased to exist and B of A would have been buying assets only in BK court and none of this would have happened.

    You can blame B of A for trying to be too nice in this deal. I am sure they won't make that mistake ever again.

  • Shorting this puppy is the best thing since they invented the wheel.

  • Reply to


    by veloocity2000 Aug 25, 2014 8:46 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 25, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    This ETN will exist 100 years from now after which a doller then would be a trillion dollars today. As long a people keep buying it then why would they delist it? Simply because longs keep losing money? That isn't a reason to delist.

  • Reply to

    Time for correction

    by happyfriday8096 Aug 22, 2014 10:22 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 25, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    You can always hope.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Aug 24, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    Ukraine already took out one Russian convoy and nothing happen. Putting had a frown on his face. Market didn't do much in response

  • Reply to

    Time for correction

    by happyfriday8096 Aug 22, 2014 10:22 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 24, 2014 1:04 AM Flag

    We just had one

  • raybans2 raybans2 Aug 22, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    TVIX will never be $10 again without a reverse split. that is a near impossibility.

  • Reply to

    Another theory of unethical practices...

    by ggray1956 Aug 22, 2014 8:29 AM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 22, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    GS was actually one of the first brokers that supported that new exchange, IEX, that makes it impossible for high speed brokers to skim profits from your trades called front running because they considered it unethical and wanted to guarantee the best deal for their clients.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Aug 21, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    From CBOE

    What is VIX?
    VIX is an implied volatility index. It measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility implicit in the prices of near-term S&P 500 options. VIX is quoted in percentage points, just like the standard deviation of a rate of return, e.g. 23.26. CBOE disseminates the VIX index value continuously during trading hours.

    VIX Futures
    VIX futures (VX) are standard futures contracts that cash settle to a Special Opening Quotation (SOQ) of VIX. VIX futures are therefore contracts on forward 30-day implied volatilities. For example, in March, a May futures is a forward contract on what 30-day implied volatility will be on the May expiration date, and a June futures is a forward contract on 30-day implied volatility on the June expiration date.

    So the way I understand this, VIX futures are contracts based on the VIX which is the implied volatility of S&P 500 options contracts. But these futures contracts can be bought and sold so their price can go up and down as well thus they have their own implied volatility.

    So basically the a VIX future contract has an implied volatility of the implied volatility of the volatility of the S&P 500. Thus you have two levels of implied volatility involved. Very messy.

    I wanted to point that out because someone might say in reply to me that the VIX is the implied volatility but that is not what I am talking about. I was talking about the implied volatility of a futures contract whose underlying is the VIX. That is different. So basically the VIX can go up but the VIX futures contract can go down.

    I point this out because many see the VIX go up and see TVIX go down and wonder. This is why. It is because the implied volatility of the futures contract declined.

    And from what I can tell, I would say that 90% of TVIX investors on this message board have no idea what I am talking about however it is essential that they do if they are invested. Otherwise you are completely in the dark.

  • raybans2 raybans2 Aug 21, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    This kind of comment comes from someone who sees the market going in a different direction than they thought it should because of how it behaved in the past. However the market is always right by default. So the problem is not with the market but with the thinking of people who think it should behave differently. It is pretty obvious to many of us that if the Fed. has changed the way the market behaves then it is up to the investor to take that into consideration and then to alter their approach accordingly. So if the investor fails to do this then it is not the market who is flawed but the investor for not considering everything that influences it, like the Fed.

    You can not blame someone for a market that behaves differently than you expected if what they are doing that has an influence is legal and everyone is aware of it. In other words, there are no secrets being kept between a select few investors who would benefit from them. Some people may profit from insider information but not by enough to cause the entire market to move. These isolated incidents are in the noise. Big players like the Fed act openly with everyone aware of their actions. So if you ignore what they are doing you cannot put the blame on them. They did nothing wrong as far as wall street is concerned. All you can expect is that they act openly so you know how to respond which they have. The fact that you didn't respond correctly isn't their fault.

  • Reply to

    I'm surprised

    by raybans2 Aug 20, 2014 6:45 PM
    raybans2 raybans2 Aug 21, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    It seems like you are addressing stocks in general. mREITs on the other hand really don't do what other stocks do. They respond to interest rates as this impacts book value and profitability, regardless of what the rest of the market is doing.

    On another note, I have been making most of my money lately exploiting these small corrections by shorting the VIX once we get close to the bottom of the correction dip. I'm making more money on this alone and than all my other investments combined. On a typical correction I make 50% to 80% return on investment. It is like free money. And to think that somone is on the opposite side of this trade. No wonder there are poor people. Mindless investors.

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