Keep in mind that the shorts post here for years and the longs post here for months and then disappear. It's not because they made so much on TVIX that they retired from investing and all related activity. It's because they threw in the towel and want nothing to do with this stock anymore.
I agree. The level of the DOW has no correlation with TVIX. Normally when the DOW goes up TVIX goes down and you would expect that to be accumulative but it doesn't have to be.
Keep in mind that if you buy long right before a spike or sell short at the top of the spike you make identical returns in theory. However you cannot possibly know how to buy right before a spike. What a long normally does is buy and wait for a spike and could lose 1/2 to 3/4 their investment while waiting. Only the lucky investor that happened to buy right before a spike by accident avoids this. That is why the downward trend works against the long and favors the short. And that is why it is less risky to short.
What do you expect volatility to do long term? Volatility is short lived. If you buy and hold you will always lose. The contango decay will kill you. A year from now this stock will be priced at less than 50 cents. So if you keep holding you lose.
TVIX isn't making much sense right now. By that I mean it's not tracking what it normally tracks. I would not try to make sense of it. Just know it will go down again eventually. At this point it is impossible to say what it will do hour to hour and one should not try to out guess it unless you have a disdain for money an want to lose it.
Right, if the stock triples in price and that's not enough to get them to sell then they will never sell and thus never make money.
They never get that they have to make their sell decision in less than an hour. Partly because they believe that some event which is months down a road is relevant to a stock whose price changes 10% to 30% in a day which is ridiculous. When a stock can triple in 3 days then how can you even entertain any thought of an event whose impact is more than a two weeks into the future. They can be right about the event but wrong about it's relevance to today so wrong in general. Without acknowledging the relevance of facts then how can you ever be right? You can't. And that's why they hold past the peak and never make money. Because they are right about the fact but wrong about it's relevance. So it's self deceiving. Reassurances about being right in one respect allows them to make flawed trading decisions because their timing on information is way out of whack.
Interesting that an obvious bag holder would call someone else a bag holder. Just because you missed the peak doesn't mean have to keep holding.
Do a search on "ETF arbitration mechanism" and "authorized participant" and "creation / redemption" and learn about how tracking ETF work so you can stop imagining that you can influence the price of an ETF with your post. Because you cannot.
It is pointless to try to get shorts to cover or longs to sell because it won't influence the price. An authorized participant will simply create or redeem shares to get the ETF to track the underlying and he will profit by doing it. Every time the EFT and underlying deviate by pennies there is an opportunity for the authorized participant to make a profit and he will jump on that and thus make the price discrepancy disappear.
If you want to make risk free money become an AP.
Devil, since this is a tracking stock and thus its price tracks the underlying you are posting to the wrong board. You need to post to the boards of all 6000 or so stocks in the US market. You need to get started right away because this might take a while.
No one knows what's going to happen next month. The best you can do is be aware of what is possible so you can have a plan in place. But to say that something is going to happen, we'll, so many different things can happen that even if you are right it is unlikely to be for the reasons you thought. So it doesn't mean anything. Better to admit you don't know so at least your decisions reflect that reality.
We do know one thing though. On average, TVIX will continue to decline.
I agree. It will take a while for China's troubles to work their way through. But I don't think their impact on the US economy will be enough to impact the earnings of most US companies.