All the QE's have done nothing for the economy. Only the banks are better off, since they just adding to their reserves, keeping the money in house and make money off the interest rate spread. They did not lend it to anyone an thats why there is no inflation as this money has not entered the economy...lower rates have helped bowerers lower their cost of borrowing money, and lowered their interest payments, and that has help every de leverage somewhat, but many have re leveraged their bets on the stockmarket. The endless QE's have inflated the stock market to the point that we actually believe that this false wealth effect low rates have created, is actually a good thing...it is not, and eventually, it will end badly, IMO. Rates must go up, and when they do, we will all get hurt...thats why I am moving money slowly but surely into investments like sm regional banks, BAC, AEG, AB, etc, that will actually benefit from rising rates.....sell weak sisters, and stay away from m REITS and PM's...they are poison in this environment.
Stock has momentum....I thought it was frothy at $130...it may take a rest here, but it also could go to $160....I would be a seller at $144 though.
Now $143 and rising....should have sold everything I own and just bought IEP....follow the money...Ichan is the money......mREITS getting killed....may be time to nibble.
Was lucky enough to sell at 9.95.....bought at 6.36.
Good move, STAGG.....there should be plenty of opportunity, as I fear this market is not finished with a correction....add tax selling, and this could get ugly....sell those weak sisters, STAGG...no time to be long mREIT's, although they are pretty beat up right now, as is SDRL...may be tto late to sell them.....you can buy back mREITS, SFL and SDRL at lower prices once the correction is over....January should be a much better month for us!
Really mad about selling IEP.....left allot of money on the table....Oh well...can't win them all.
MAX.....Bought back LINE this AM...good news all around....color means nothing with oil MLP's....SDRL has good color and it keeps going down......I don't think one can lose at $31.00.....wait til Berry petrol. production comes on board.....its a good value play here...
Looking at more sm. regional banks....PWOD and AMNB.....also AFL.
You're lookin good MAX....I would get rid of UAN, GGN, and AUY though...PM's are in a free fall...you can always buy back at lower prices...i will start to like GGN in the low 8's......
I agree with Mark that a nice size correction is long over due....I have lots of cash to allocate when that happens because I sold weak sisters...all mREITS, MLP's UAN, CVRR, GGN all commodity and PM stocks....also sold SFL and PDLI about a week ago....keeping SDRL as it is acting very strong. Still very long PSEC, NRZ, (sold NCT which I think is a loser), AEG, AB, STON, BAC , and all my regional bank stocks which will thrive as interest rates rise, and most importatly, will not go down near as much as other stocks when the market corrects....and it will correct, its just when. You do not want to be caught with your pants down when it occurs. Also beginning to nibble at TZA and SDS for downside protection.
PE under 2x???? This stock should either be trading much higher, or some body had better audit the earnings as they look too good to be true....
WMC 0.6% 2.7% -19.7% -17.6%
I month, 6 months, 12 mos etc history above..it has been a loser....I dislike mREITS in this current environment, but if they continue with the divvy rate at 22%, it looks like a buy here.....bought two more small regional bank stocks.... ESSA and CVLY...safe, and will do better than most in a rising interest rate environment....watching SCCO....seems to have gone lower than it should....I am starting to like it here.
Drank too much wine yesterday....going back to bed now..
I bought AEG at much lower prices....it still has legs...check out the long term chart to see where it used to trade...it is a great turnaround story...I have friends who work there, and it will thrive in an increasing interest rate environment, like the banks. I like T and MO...added two sm. regional banks today as well...
ESSA, and CVLY...they are not for everyone, but I want safe stuff going forward...GGN will go into the 8's....lower divy, gold and silver just do not look good right now...I am staying away....good for you on CVI....I just wanted out of refiners/fertilizer stocks...it may get hit in a market adjustment like UAN, SFL, SDRL....sold NCT as well, and bought the spin off...NRZ instead....again, will thrive with increasing interest rates.
First of all, I want to wish all memebers of the board a Happy Thanksgiving...we all have allot to be thankful for.
Special thanks to STAGG, Sarge, Mark, Roger, Vinnie, Bobd....keep up the good work...this is the best board I have seen for good ideas and honest opinions.
That said, my thoughts are these...this market has legs,although the ride may be bumpy in 2014....particularly if long Term interest rates continue to rise toward 3%, which they will, and the Fed decides to taper. I am arranging my portfolio in anticipation....I am heavily invested in regional banks...VLY, HBAN, NYCB, PBCT,...I will be adding ESSA later today....75% of book, and is a take over candidate IMO....also look at BDGE, CLVY, and SUSQ. I also will buy more BAC on any dips. Banks, insurance companies (I also like and own AEG) do well in this envionment.....mREITS and MLP's funds like FFC, that invest in pfrds, do not...I have shed all of these from my portfolio. I continue to LOVE PSEC and and I still like STON. Get rid of weak sisters, mREITS, refiners, and fertilizer stocks....IMHO, these will react poorly to any general market correction.
I am holding small positions in SFL, SDRL, which will also react poorly to any market correction...I will buy them on these marke corrections.
I sold PDLI as it is very close to its all time high, and I can find higher yields than 6.5%.....Gold/Silver charts still look ugly, and although I once owned and liked GGN, I see it going into the 8's before I would think about nibbling on it.
God Bless us all, and this great country.....God Bless all our service men/women who give everything so we can be free......Happy Thanksgiving!!
Good move bobd.....PSEC is my largest holding, and has been making me money for years....I have it in my ROTH
and receive the Divys tax free!