All the talking heads were talking down the valuation of YHOO...saying its basically worth nothing without BABA...and, there would be a huge tax bill...that's the consensus, and I decided not to fight the tape, even if I disagree...I will hold 2000 shs to see how this all pans out...to me, any corporation that can't figure out how not to pay taxes, or ate least minimal taxes, on a huge windfall like this, needs to be fired....and, I have a suspicion that YHOO is in play for some kind of deal...I like holding SFTBK even more than YHOO, as its based in Japan...
Not at all what I expected....kept 2000 shs to see what pans out after all the nonsense settles down.
I also still have 1000 shs of SFTBY...
At leaset I don't have SDRL...sorry, guys, but you can't say you were not warned.
I hope you are wrong too, Huff...although I am looking at putting in a $40 stop loss order...would have loved to do that put thing that DH did, but in a SEP IRA, I am only approved for selling covered calls....I hate stop loss orders, but they have saved my #$%$ on more than one occasion....If I am right, everyone to Nicks Roast Beef, Pat's Steaks or Tony Lukes on me!...If I am wrong.....oh, the pain...I can't even think about that option.
It was a great gainer, STAGG...it is now way over priced....I would be a seller here...buy more SFL on the dips.
From the YHOO board, and I agree..especially about not paying the required taxes by selling their BABA shares in Hong Kong....hey...if it just goes to $50, I will make a ton of money on my 10000 shs...I own them
for about $35/share.
Yahoo Valued at $71 Post Alibaba IPO
Yahoo's 35% of Yahoo Japan stake is worth $5 billion assuming they unwind the stake at current levels and pay all taxes (which there’s probably a good solution for avoiding). The core business of Yahoo is worth $10 billion to a strategic buyer knowing full well that they can cut headcount by 10,000 people and see an enormous jump in headcount. So that’s $26 billion right there.
Then we have 16.3% of Alibaba. What’s that going to be worth post-IPO? My guess is that Alibaba will trade up to $90/share or a market cap of $215 billion. That means Yahoo’s remaining stake would be worth $35 billion assuming Yahoo avoids taxes on that stake (which I think is highly likely when they dispose of the stake a year from now in Hong Kong and keep the money overseas to borrow against). If you assume Yahoo pays full taxes on that stake (which they won’t), it’s worth $23B.
But Yahoo’s not going to sell its stake right away. They’re going to keep it for another year. What’s it going to be worth then? No one knows for sure but my modelling suggests Alibaba will be trading around $111/share a year from now or $275 billion. If true, the Yahoo stake will be worth $45 billion untaxed (which I think is the correct way to think about what will happen when they liquidate their stake in the jurisdiction of Hong Kong).
So you have in Yahoo’s stock a collection of assets where the Alibaba stake would be worth $45 billion in a year from now and everything else would be worth $26 billion. Combined that’s $71 billion in assets potentially — or about $71/share.
Here is a partial quote from the article....the guy who wrote it owns SDRL, but he was pretty fair in his analysis.
"While Seadrill is indeed the most leveraged of its peers and has the thinnest coverage ratio, it also has the best fleet and the highest cash flow visibility. For example, 97% of the company's drillships are contracted for this year, 78% are contracted for next year, and another 60% are contracted through 2016."
What I don't understand is why is this "good news"? looks like declining contracts, which means declining income...they are also heavily leveraged as we all know, and the sanctions in Russia may cause further problems...all in all, I see no reason to buy the stock other than for a trade because it is so over sold...not bashing, just say'n.
It will be trading in the $50's on Friday, and higher the following week....BABA will trade in the $80's easily before any correction even starts...and maybe even higher...selling YHOO here is not a smart thing to do....I have no idea what is keeping the price down, unless its the shorts....the BABA IPO will not resemble the FB IPO...BABA is not FB.
I am very heavy into YHOO, and will hold most of it through the IPO...I expect BABA to open at $68 and quickly rise to $80 or higher, possibly hitting close to $100 a share...If I am even half right, YHOO goes from
$42. to $72.....yes, the flippers will sell and buy BABA, but after people realize that when BABA goes up, YHOO is also more valuable, that's when the price of YHOO should reach its true value....hope I'm right, as I have a ton of YHOO that I bought in the low $30's...I will need to take my blood pressure meds on Friday!
Nice timing with WMC and AWLCF, although I would have stayed way from that one...China now starting a QE program...great....the dollar will be stronger than ever, which is not good for interest rates regardless of what the fed does or says....nice come back for MORL, CEFL, WMC, PSEC, and others, along with MLP's...still, the market seems to love the large cap DOW stocks the most....
I don't know why YHOO is not trading higher...it should be over $45, by now....people are listening to the talking heads scaring them about the BABA IPO....BABA is not FB....sorry...they are making money hand over fist.
I agree...buying more here on this drop....anyone selling now is out of their mind.....BABA is not FB.
Man, you guys are gluttons for punishment....and you keep buying more! Unbelievable....NEVER...EVER fall in love with a stock...also, when the market goes one way, you had better not be standing in front of it.
What I don't understand is why MORL, CEFL, ARR, WMC, etc are still going down...its obvious that interest
rates are not going up any time soon...Yellen's message is pretty dovish and clear on that...so, why the pull back? FYI, I am still holding, (not buying) but holding....Oil MLP's will go back up once the cold winter arrives.
Meanwhile, I am getting antsy about my huge position in YHOO...sell now, wait for the IPO, sell some, sell
nothing??? Good problem to have, but I am really all in on this one...I could really get bit in the #$%$ if it tumbles....looking at putting in stops at various prices, various amounts of shares. Opinions?
Can't afford this to go under $20....
All up today...I like to own stocks that go up.....my PSEC, CEFL, MORL, ARR, WMC, NLY, NCT, STON and oil MLP's are down...thank goodness I have way more shares in what's listed above, than what's listed here...on the plus side today, thank goodness. Market is acting like interest rates are going through the roof...I don't see it...govt can't pay the interest on the massive debt now...I see a rate from 0 to .25...maybe .50 at the outside...no more, if that, and not til late next year or longer if the market tanks in Oct....keep the faith.
No they won't...the govt cannot afford to pay the current interest payment on the debt, let alone a higher payment due to higher interest rates....the worst that will happen is a token increase in the rate from 0 to .25....at the very most .50, and I doubt even that high....you are a dope.
People are waking up to the fact that BABA will be priced well above the experts/ estimates, and will easily
trade +10 points up in the first day....YHOO will be over $50 before you know what hit you....buy all you can here.