People don't understand this company....earnings mean mothing...free cash flow is everything....they play accounting games with the Revenue...losing money is good....no taxes.
You ar right Mark....CVI is a dog.....KMI is fine....
My theme is there is no place for people who want a decent return to put their money...retirees are looking for max yield, so they flock to mREITS and names like HIX, NRZ, NCT and the like....as long as interest rate environment stays like it is, we should be OK.....PSEC is more vulnerable....Right now, the DOW goes down, and mREITS go up a little or are flat...either way, they are in the green plus divys.....gold/silver was a good buy in Jan....gold may still be a good buy...looking again at GGN....getting killed on the latest news on BAC...will be buying more in the 16's....SDRL and SFL are weak sisters, so stay away in down markes, along with CVVR, NTI, UAN, CVI, and their ilk....
I would rather own mREITS in this environment...ARR, NLY, AGNC, and HIX, all up the last two days...my income account has actually increased in value this week!.....also, buy STON on the weakness....earnings mean nothing to this company...free cash flow is everything, and they have a ton of it....KMI has a low divy, owns CVRR and UAN, and is controlled by Ichann who is liable to do anything so that he makes money, regardless of shareholders...I owned KMI and got rid of it...bought ARR at just under $4.00...its $4.30 now with a monthly divy that is 14% annualized...why bother fighting the trend?
SDRL and SFL down with the DOW....along with LINE...thank goodness I sold it.
mREITS are still looking good....ARR, NLY...as well as HIX...with any negative news, this could get ugly very quickly...keep your finger on the trigger finger!!
My house is all electric....heat, air, appliances, TV...I average $200 a month, for the year,which is peanuts...hell, my cable/internet is $200 a month, and I don't have to worry about my house blowing up...I hate Nat gas...too dangerous.
My wall is less worrysome today....sold weak sisters, including LINE today, added to my NLY, HIX and BAC. I now have zero oil/gas or precious metal exposure, and lots of cash...I can't believe WMC is this strong....I just don't see it....much weaker than NLY or my favorite in the space, ARR....still holding on to NRZ, NCT, PSEC, STON...I may sell VLY as well if the market continues to weaken....only bank to hold in market weakness is BAC, and I will add on any dips...it is going higher...you heard it from "The Gambler" take it to the bank.... LOL!
Selling weak sisters...sold all OZM, half of my AB, half my AEG and all banks except VLY and BAC...bought more BAC today and will buy on all dips....they will raise the divy shortly, and the stock will rise on the news...its not the puny divy that will cause it to rise...its the realization that BAC is the strongest bank out there, and it is a great value play.
Staying in HIX, NLY, NRZ, NCT, STON, and tons of ARR...I know Mark doesn't lie ARR, but I think it is stronger
than most of the mREITS out there....they have made smart adjustments, and are buying back stock left and right
which will boost BV...also pays .05 a month which is pretty good on a $4.25 stock....LINE is killing me, but I stubbornly hang on to it....kind of like STAGG and his SDRL (LOL!!)
Hellow STAGG and MAX....Max, thanks for reminding me about this board. I have gon the other way, with interest rates (short Term) on the rise, banks will be in favor, and mREITS will not...I sold WMC and AGNC...I still have NLY and ARR as I consider them stronger than the others...bought back BAC and more AMNB to take advantage of
the market viewing banks in much better light than mREITS when the Short term rates rise.
Current Positions; (by Yield)
HIX 10.1%...this is just to park money for future use.
STON 9.5%...again, for parking money.
OZM 33%...a large non recurrent divy this year....I reduced my position by one half after the special divy.
I have numerous biotechs which are trading vehicles for me, and I have made a ton on them this year...here is
best of breed if you are interested; INO, ONCS, IDRA, AGEN,
I still like ARR, but I will put a stop loss in, as I have a ton of it that I bought at a few pennies under $4.00...I think of all of them, their divy is stable, along with NLY.....I take your warning seriously, Mark, and will look to protect what I
have already made....I don't like losses.
WMC took it on the chin...now below where I bought it, which does not make me happy...I can stand to own it
for the Divy as long as it stays above $16....SDRL may be getting closer to a buy....under 33 it will be a nibble...under 30, a buy.
Almost at 5 year low.....nice divvy, lots of cash flow....I don't understand its low price...can anyone here
shed any light on this? I think its a buy....5.8% divvy? Looks good to me.
Mark, as always, thanks for the insight...I think 3% on rates is a ceiling....they should pull back when hitting that ceiling...if not, that would signal danger as to higher interest rates....mREITS look very healthy to me, divys have stopped dropping, and portfolios have been re arranged, reducing leverage, and rolling over their purchases....I think we still have a good year ahead for ARR, AGNC and NLY.....I think the S&P 500 is getting ahead of itself, and I will be looking to buy some TZA again as downside insurance......
Why issue shares so much lower than what they are trading for?
It seems like the company is telling the market that the real value of INO is $2.90 a share...please explain this to me?
Long 12000 shs.....
Nice post, Mark...I kind of agree with you except for mREITS....I do not like MTGE, but I love ARR, NLY and AGNC...I also bought some of Stagg's WMC at lower prices.....fed will not raise rates for at least 12 months...there is a lot of divys to be collected before then....I love PSEC..its my largest holding...that an ARR that I bought a $4.00.
Like I said as well, not worried about LINE...its almost back to where it was before the news....TZA and TVIX are looking like buys here....this market is way overbought IMHO.
I also own and trade; INO, ONCS, RNN, NBS, IDRA, DVAX, SNTA...I also love AGEN, but can't get the price I want....anyone else own or trade any of these?
Maybe we can share info/thoughts on this board...O/T of course.
Earning .20 a quarter and paying out .40 a quarter in divys, is not the answer to long term success, IMHO...
Not my cup of tea, although it is holding up much better than SDRL in down markets....If am missing something here, please enlighten me....
I own LINE, and I am not worried...I won it under $30, and I like their future with the Berry Acquisition...they may not be as well run as others, but with asset sales, they will have more mondy available to take advantage of the Berry assets....I am not worried.