bs__________________ THAT 68 DOLLARS HAS BEEN CUT IN HALF AND COMPANIES PROFIT TWICE AS FAST NOW WITH SCIENCE ,TECHNOLOGY AND NEW DATA. read further
1) over leveraged short positions 2)____ Commodities are known for boom and bust cycles 3) HISTORIC LOWS FOR MANY COMPANIES, HEDGING, LIQUITY REMAIN, 4 ) Natural declines will work off the excess supply. Then the glut of inventories will be chewed down. SLOW CAPX spending, dried wells, lack upkeep, No development, and exploration. 5) There is NO cost-effective replacement for petroleum. OIL IS NEEDED . 6) World growth eventually-ECONOMIC CYCLE WITH OIL, mergers and buy out, and falling US rigs. 7) American oil is light, sweet, low sulfur, and easy to refine for gas. 8) American fracking oil don’t have to be cheaper then Arab oil. Just cheaper then Deep water, oil sands, Tar, Artic, and be close to needed refineries as Arab shipping adds, 5$ plus, to cost. Infrastructure, Pipelines, refineries needed. 9) America geared up and provided cheap oil and can profit much sooner 10) Refineries are owned by Arabs (monopolies) (economy of size broken) through major oil companies with exclusive contracts. New American refineries near shale plays 11 ) No more oil ban laws 12 ) America has the largest deposits of oil and natural gas reserves. There are over 70 provinces in the United States that contain hydrocarbon-bearing basins. Bakken, Eagle Ford, Scoop, Stack, Springer , Permian, Mid Cotenant, Denver Basin, OK,WY,CA, CO Gulf Coast Region, Rocky Mountain, There are two major deposits: the eastern US deposits, in Devonian-Mississippian shales, cover 250,000 square miles Green River Formation—, Piceance Basin , Uinta Basin, are huge. 13) SURPRISES- U.S. production declines will be so large that the country will now need to import additional crude oil supplies. 14) NEW Technologies- the way oil is extracted from shale. I don't mean the fracking process itself, but how oil companies can build DUC wells and sit on them until the price of oil reaches profitable levels. Storage 0n/off pumps. 15) Smarter data, computer generated information, They also have the ability to tap into higher-producing wells, cheap extraction, exploration and delivery methods, monitors, computers. 16 ) SHALE industry will survive and Middle East has no control of that. It’s a lose , lose for them 17 ) some technologies at full-scale production assert profitability at 30$ oil. Break the Arab and big industry ties of big oil. 40$ oil is now the old 80$ oil 18 ) Manipulations from big oil and Middle East must end, nobody wins with 30 dollar oil. Unsustainable. Bears ARE done -market finds equilibrium – EVEN, OPEC assumes crude prices will rise by about $5 a year through 2020. 19 ) The Middle East is crazed with market manipulation, To high or low, and this is not an equilibrium. Shorts have not been investing but driving. Even GS is not that crazy to think it can stay below 40. 20) . So Cannacord Genuity said "[W]e see more upside potential than downside risk in the current global oil market and think Canadian E&P stocks provide excellent exposure to a recovering oil price."
21 ) Buying the blood- There have been $323 billion in announced or proposed oil-and-gas mergers so far this year, the most on record for a similar period by nearly $100 billion, according to Dealogic. 22 ) SHALE industry will survive and Middle East has no control of that. It’s a lose , lose for them giving oil away. Many in the INDUSTRY call BOTTOM—down 80 to 90% - 23 ) OPEC nations don’t have cash and are borrowing . Saudi are most likely the only cheap oil driver going forward, social unrest, borrowing and outside control of their countries debt/wells going into next year. 24) For OPEC, however, the sudden 50% diminution in export revenue is a clear and present danger, and the response is noteworthy: members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to earn $380 billion selling their oil this year, according to U.S. estimates. That represents a $350 billion drop from 2014 — the largest one-year decline in history. 25) Banks are working with oil companies. 26)Now OPEC and Russia should work on supporting oil as The Government can’t let our industry be destroyed with feign piece fixing and unfair government price fixing. . 27) New legislation to support GAS infrastructure and oil support 28 ) Squeeze - market tone for oil and energy stocks, we see a significant amount of pessimism (and an opportunity for a major short squeeze). World growth eventually- and falling US rigs. A) Over leveraged short positions B) Huge profits need locked in C) traders late to the game ( cut losses) D ) prices start to pick up momentum E falling oil prices ( coiled) F) Market Markers offload their own risk, buying crude oil futures and other energy exposure. G) investors who sold don’t want to miss the big one. H) A mix of fear turns to greed 29) Macro events in Syria, France and Middle East tension now in 30) Bullish hedge fund bets and billionaire finding long positions. 31) Early bird gets the worm and the majority of the swing turn profits. ) History in favor of a cycle and many before have made money bottom fishing this low. IT WILL find a bottom and roar back –many will miss it
32 ) NEW press , 33) Many OPEC countries going broke as a couple might hang on namely SAUDIS UPSIDE goes to oil now , risk/reward 34) Economic chaos in OPEC nations, Middle East, countries have been pushed into recession such as Russia, Norway, Canada, Algeria Ecuador
35) Insiders buying many companies
36 ) 4 cycles the last 20 years all turn higher 37) Billionaire are trying to “catch a falling knife.” 38) Historic yields and returns, at historic lows 39) The other markets falling and it looks like a safe place at one point 40) The demand must be there at a reasonable cost. In a nut shell I think we have been over pessimistic as usually as we over correct both directions. 41) It comes down to risk assessment frequently used by analyst . The bottom of these cycle are very hard to see . Blue chips will never be cheaper. 42) Under 50 oil is a unsustainable price because it destroys too much supply and creates too much extra demand, maintains Mike Breard, an energy sector analyst at Hodges Capital Management. "Producers will stop drilling. People will buy more. The idea that oil is going to stay in the $40 range for three to four years is utter nonsense," says Breard 43) Economy needs higher oil. Since oil and the dollar are inversely correlated, that would put a bid under oil. Stronger dollar = less trade & Business. Lately the DOW has been tied to oil prices per barrel. 44) Volume finally picking up as many call bottom. Historic day in volume FEB 11 2016 45) Highly capitalized names, such as Oasis Petroleum (OAS) (WLL) (KMI) (MRO) had that falling knife look. This would naturally bring nibblers and those that average in. 46) Arabs blew it. Keeping oil high for American know how…to produce as cheap
47) Bank of America says OPEC is now "effectively dissolved" Low oil revolution brings insolvency for governments and riots. 48) Take over target- ITS a cycle. The big will buy the small and raise companies PPSs across the board. To good to pass up. 49) The problem for the Saudis is that US shale frackers are not high-cost. They are mostly mid-cost Saudis miss judges the shale revolution time and time again.
50) . Advanced pad drilling techniques allow frackers to launch five or ten wells in different directions from the same site. Smart drill-bits with computer chips can seek out cracks in the rock. New dissolvable plugs promise to save $300,000 a well. "We've driven down drilling costs by 50pc, through the whole process- smarter, faster, deeper, exploration, drilling, platforms, techniques, chemicals, monitoring, data driven, new formations-3D, storage, removal, delivery, refining eventually, switches, pressures, materials, heads, waist and piping. 51) uphill battle for shorts now - chart , technical turn, JUST TO CHEAP 52) Shorts dis-information is false and analyst downgrades way too late. 53) many have been shell shocked and needed a big rally to jump back in- don’t want to be left behind 54) Great opportunity to own quality-cheap, retirement type investments 55) bearish extremes in sentiment and we now have positive seasonality maintenance and cleaning in the sector 56) The sheer amount of volume and press, statements and news are climaxing 57) Momentum, volume, overleverage, press, mergers, buying, blood pointing to the turn as it happens 6 months before good news 58) GOVERNMENT CO_OPERATION NEEDED –support laws 59) High grade shale assets utilized more revenue with less rigs 60) great improvements Shale industry analytics 61) Embracing digital information, data and monitoring 62) Necessity- Decisions made by sensors and informed leadership company/congress/ 63) friendlier international and US laws. 64) Avoid legislative hurdles. 65) Accelerate exploration on federal lands 66) Walking rigs, education, new multiple holes, 67) Better pressure pumps and optimization in timing pressure 68) ON/OFF controls on equipment 69) PADS that make drilling easier , effective ,efficient , faster 70) Optimizing fields and spacing of wells for Horizontal drills and use of pressure pumps and sand, chemicals. 71) Moving water and materials easier to maximize oil in fracking 72) adapting new technologies and industry norms changing 73) Faster drilling(heads) and the learning curve developing much faster with data based information studied 74) Sensors , automations, computers, Robotics, seismic software, drones, logistics, mapping, all are being deployed and studied. 75) New water and waste controls and methods for removal with pipelines 76 ) partnering for pipelines and reducing cost up to 50% Delivering oil with pipe can lower Dakota oil 15% over rail. Exploration and delivery have greatly changed.
- 2015 full year and fourth quarter results is as follows:
• Full-year Total Revenues of $1.131 billion
• Full-year Adjusted EBITDA between $235.0 - $233.0 million
• Fourth quarter Total Revenues of $192.8 million, including $11.8 million in lump sum drilling contract termination fees
• Fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA between $57.0 - $55.0 million
• Year-end cash balance of $130.6 million
“Despite a very challenging market we are pleased with our fourth quarter execution,” Chief Executive Officer Jerry Winchester said. “We continue to diversify our customer base while tightly managing costs throughout our business. Our fourth quarter results reflect our commitment to this strategy.”
“Although we are anticipating continued market headwinds with little visibility into the plans of operators, our operational execution and quality asset base continue to bolster our reputation amongst our growing customer list.”
Selected Preliminary 2015 Segment Highlights
• Full-year Drilling Total Revenues of $436.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $185.0-$183.0 million
• Fourth quarter Drilling Total Revenues of $89.6 million, including $11.8 million in lump sum termination fees, and Adjusted EBITDA between $49.0-$47.0 million
• Full-year Hydraulic Fracturing Total Revenues of $575.5 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $61.0-$60.0 million
• Fourth quarter Hydraulic Fracturing Total Revenues of $91.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $8.2-$7.8 million
The Company is providing this preliminary estimated and unaudited information in advance of upcoming corporate presentations. The information is based on management's preliminary review of the Company’s results of operations for the 2015 fourth quarter and full year, and is subject to revision. Final adjustments and other material developments may arise between the date of this press release and the date the Company announces fourth quarter and audited full year 2015 results and files the Company's Annual Report on Form 1
on the other hand they report billionaires buying and record volumes that are seen with turn around. Don't be a idiot while your peers are covering. Read the facts. (Reuters) - Billionaire investor David Tepper's Appaloosa Management
This is a gift as there are signs of a rebound Thursday and Friday FEB 11, - Trading volume for WTI futures climbed to a record 1.79 million contracts on the Nymex Thursday.
"There’s a new, all-time volume record for WTI," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. "There’s a lot of market participation relative to open interest. We’ve got a lot of money chasing the price."
Brent for April settlement gained $3.30 to end the session at $33.36 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was the biggest gain since December 2008. Prices fell 2 percent this week. The European benchmark oil traded at a $1.45 premium to April WTI.
A three-way collar is a combination of options: a sold call, a purchased put and a sold put. The sold call establishes a maximum price (ceiling) Whiting will receive for the volumes under contract. The purchased put establishes a minimum price (floor), unless the market price falls below the sold put (sub-floor), at which point the minimum price would be NYMEX plus the difference between the purchased put and the sold put strike price.
REGULAR COLLARS also. WLL is hedged 45% through 2016. Hedges are well placed . 38% of these hedges are in the form of a three-way spread and the remaining 7% are from a collar Three-way collars Crude oil 01/2016 to 03/2016 550,000 $43.18/$53.18/$76.26 Crude oil 04/2016 to 06/2016 550,000 $43.18/$53.18/$76.26 Crude oil 07/2016 to 09/2016 550,000 $43.18/$53.18/$76.26 Crude oil 10/2016 to 12/2016 550,000 $43.18/$53.18/$76.26 ********(Collars ***** Crude oil 01/2015 to 03/2015 9,000 $85.00/$102.75 Crude oil 04/2015 to 06/2015 9,100 $85.00/$102.75 Crude oil 07/2015 to 09/2015 209,200 $51.06/$57.37 Crude oil 10/2015 to 12/2015 209,200 $51.06/$57.37 Crude oil 01/2016 to 03/2016 250,000 $51.00/$63.48 Crude oil 04/2016 to 06/2016 250,000 $51.00/$63.48 Crude oil 07/2016 to 09/2016 250,000 $51.00/$63.48 Crude oil 10/2016 to 12/2016 250,000 $51.00/$63.48 Crude oil 01/2017 to 03/2017 250,000 $53.00/$70.44 Crude oil 04/2017 to 06/2017 250,000 $53.00/$70.44 Crude oil 07/2017 to 09/2017 250,000 $53.00/$70.44 Crude oil 10/2017 to 12/2017 250,000 $53.00/$70.44 (1) A three-way collar is a combination of options: a sold call, a purchased put and a sold put. The sold call establishes a maximum price (ceiling) we will receive for the volumes under contract. The purchased put establishes a minimum price (floor), unless the market price falls below the sold put (sub-floor), at which point the minimum price would be NYMEX plus the difference between the purchased put and the sold put strike price.
Fixed-differential Crude Oil Contracts. We have entered into two fixed-differential crude oil sales and delivery contracts for oil volumes we plan to produce from the Niobrara in Colorado. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Financial Results
• Fourth quarter total revenue of $205.5 million increases 12% year-over-year; 22% in constant currency
• Fourth quarter license revenue of $126.1 million increases 12% year-over-year; 21% in constant currency
• Full year total revenue of $612.7 million increases 10% year-over-year; 23% in constant currency
• Full year license revenue of $327.0 million increases 9% year-over-year; 21% in constant currency
• Initiates full year 2016 total revenue growth guidance of 13% to 15% on a reported basis and 15% to 17% on a constant currency basis
average peer debt is much higher and the reductions in production a HE!! of a lot lower. Did you see the production increases and EBITA ((((( MAKING MONEY)))))))))))))) monkey brains are going to lose in the long run here. I don't use a week Metrix. Cover soon my silly con man.