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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

rchites 940 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Apr 12, 2004
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  • Its about to happen as shorts realize they have lost money for a week. Longs will hold for the long term as shorts cover.

  • Shorts are about to start covering. They have lost money back for a week. Its time to load for the long run future.

  • Shorts will be destroyed. Longs will be adding for the long range future.

  • Reply to

    Don't know whats going on

    by taxslave70 15 hours ago

    All the oil stocks are moving. Most the 5 day charts for the oil companies look good. The bottom could be in and people don't want to miss the boat. This is just the start. A full blown buying panic is coming soon.

  • Reply to

    LINN has bottomed and going back to $15-$16 level soon

    by x316l Jan 26, 2015 10:12 PM

    5 day chart up 10% and going to 15

  • JAN 2015 --capital budget plans for 2015. Announced highlights include:
    • Estimated capital spending of $180 million in 2015
    • Projected year-over-year production growth of 10% to 14% in 2015
    • Estimated operating cash flow to exceed capital expenditures by 4Q 2015
    • New Baker well continues to expand development of eastern Pangea
     Projected 2015 oil volumes 64% hedged at a weighted average floor price of $82.38 AREX's very impressive revenue growth greatly exceeded the industry average of 6.5%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues leaped by 54.1%. Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings per share.
     The current debt-to-equity ratio, 0.46, is low and is below the industry average, implying that there has been successful management of debt levels. Even though the company has a strong debt-to-equity ratio, the quick ratio of 0.22 is very weak and demonstrates a lack of ability to pay short-term obligations.
    • Investors have so far failed to pay much attention to the earnings improvements the company has managed to achieve over the last quarter. Turning toward the future, the fact that the stock has come down in price over the past year should not necessarily be interpreted as a negative; it could be one of the factors that may help make the stock attractive down the road. Down over 80% AREX could have a very nice bounce to a more realistic level.
    Management Comment
    Approach’s Chairman and CEO Ross Craft commented, “We believe Approach is very well-positioned to endure a period of low crude oil prices, given our peer-leading drilling and completion costs, strong balance sheet, balanced commodity mix and hedges in place. Our solid liquidity position and core acreage, which is substantially held by production, give us the flexibility to adapt our drilling program to current market conditions. Given the current macro environment of the crude oil markets, we are planning a capital budget of approximately $180 million and forecasting year-over-year production growth of 10% to 14% in 2015. We believe that under this budget, we can generate operating cash flow that exceeds capital expenditures by the fourth quarter of 2015.
    “Commodity price volatility is not new to our industry. In 2008, crude oil prices fell 76% and natural gas prices dropped 61% from their peak levels that year. Due to the sharp decline in commodity pricing, in 2009 we decided not to renew rig contracts and focused on reducing costs, operating within cash flow and paying down debt, all of which we accomplished. Over the last several months, crude oil has fallen by more than 40% from a high of over $106, to below 50$ per barrel. As we look to 2015, we will continue to closely monitor the crude oil markets and adapt our 2015 strategy accordingly.”
    The Company’s capital budget for 2015 is $180 million and includes approximately $166 million for drilling and completion activity and $14 million for infrastructure and other expenses. We plan to operate an average of approximately one rig in 2015, compared to three rigs in 2014, with the flexibility to increase or decrease the number of rigs running depending on market conditions. We expect 2015 production to be between 5,450 to 5,650 MBoe. This represents a 10% to 14% increase over our 2014 production guidance of 4,950 MBoe, which we are on track to meet. Based on our current drilling plans, we expect oil and liquids volumes to be approximately 41% and 70%, respectively, of total 2015 production. Additionally, we expect oil and liquids volumes from our horizontal Wolfcamp wells to be approximately 48% and 73%, respectively. Our current drilling plan assumes we will drill 20, and complete 34, horizontal Wolfcamp wells in 2015. Since our last operations update, we have completed a Wolfcamp C-bench well in our East Baker area with a 24-hour IP rate of 827 Boe/d and a 70% oil cut. The 30-day peak rate for this well was 620 Boe/d with a 64% oil cut. Together with the Elliott C-bench well that we announced last month, the East Baker C-bench well continues to expand our development of the horizontal Wolfcamp on our eastern acreage.
    Commodity Derivatives Update
    We enter into commodity derivatives positions to reduce the risk of commodity price fluctuations. For 2015, approximately 64% of forecasted oil production and 43% of forecasted natural gas production are hedged at weighted average floor prices of $82.38/Bbl and $4.05/MMBtu, respectively.

  • GROWTH- As far as growth goes, we’re over 5,000 barrels a day in August. That continues to show a pretty good growth profile, pretty visible from here as we bring on some incremental pads in the Bakken.
    4 quarter revenue growth- Total Revenue 21,494 21,196 19,072 17,170 with YOY growth
    Analyst may get surprised by the upside potential as they guide- .3 EPS with 34% growth. Institutional suport- 49%+ Northpointe Capital LLC BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, Clinton Group, Inc. Vanguard Group, Inc. Portolan Capital Management, BlackRock Fund Advisors Capital Management, LLC , BLB&B Advisors, LLC State Street Corporation Northern Trust Corporation
    BURKE Franklin -Director- 70,003 Direct Purchase at $2.37 - $2.41 per share.
    Long/short equity –Elephant Analytics from a Seeking Alpha POST- Posted this::::

    • Abraxas Petroleum should have breakeven cashflow at $47 per barrel oil in 2015 due to its hedges.
    • Breakeven would be $52 per barrel in 2016 and $56 per barrel in 2017 based on existing hedges, steady state production and $60 million in capital expenditures.
    • Unhedged breakeven point is $59 per barrel if Abraxas wants to maintain production levels.
    • Debt has been reduced significantly since last year and appears quite manageable given Abraxas's reduced capital expenditure budget.
    • $85 per barrel oil would result in around $55 million in free cash flow in 2015, and would likely allow for a significant expansion in its capital budget.
    Abraxas Petroleum is an oil and natural gas company that primarily focuses on the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Permian regions. It recently announced an update in which slashed its 2015 capital expenditure budget from $200 million to $54 million in light of falling oil prices.

    Abraxas Petroleum is breakeven at $55 per barrel oil without hedging. Abraxas Petroleum had approximately 21% of 2015 oil production hedged at $85 per barrel oil, so the value of its 2015 hedge is approximately $11.5 million at

  • Reply to

    Hasn't AXAS hedged for all of 2015 ?

    by dalton880 Jan 26, 2015 11:13 AM

    Elephant Analytics

    Long/short equity •Abraxas has 21% of projected 2015 oil volume hedged.
    •The December corporate update presentation appears to show that 78% of 2015 oil production is hedged.
    •However, the label for that graph notes that it is based on end of 2013 PDP.
    •That means the production levels in the graph are based on wells that were already producing at the end of 2013.
    •It does not include additional wells brought into production since then, which would account for 73% of projected actual 2015 volumes, thus accounting for the difference in hedging calculations.

    This article is intended to clarify some of the information surrounding Abraxas Petroleum's (NASDAQ:AXAS) hedges (see my previous article on the stock). There has apparently been some confusion as a result of Abraxas's corporate update presentations, which contain graphs that show the percentage of production hedged. However, it is important to note that those calculations are based on production from wells that were producing at the end of 2013 only, and don't include new wells added after the end of 2013, which would account for the majority of future production. Based on Abraxas's production guidance, at the end of Q3 2014, it had approximately 21% of 2015 oil volume hedged, which should make it cash flow breakeven at $47 per barrel WTI oil.

  • Reply to

    Plain talk Please

    by lapieredonald Jan 26, 2015 7:57 PM
    rchites rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:49 AM Flag

    The oil minister , Barrons article about Time to buy oil back you. The 5 day charts with most the oil stocks are all up as well as the S& P oil index ( XOP ). We are in for a good ride now.

  • Reply to

    See you at $4.00

    by techxpit Jan 27, 2015 12:31 AM
    rchites rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:45 AM Flag

    OPEC oil minister was right. I look at the oil companies charts and most are up for the week. XOP oil S&P index is up also. Its time to load the boat.

  • rchites by rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:41 AM Flag

    is a great big up trend like the XOP oil sector. Many oil stocks have good gains in the last week. Barrons states smart money is flowing into the sector.

  • Reply to

    Old timer checking in,

    by mofisher22 Jan 26, 2015 8:50 PM
    rchites rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:38 AM Flag

    The platform is what counts. Ebola was just an attention getter for the real deal.

  • rchites rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:34 AM Flag

    OPEC oil minister calls a bottom with Boone Pickens. OIL 90 in 18 months. No spending will create a boom again in time. 2 years and a great big double plus +++++++++++++++++++++++++++

  • Reply to

    new short here

    by tzietlow Jan 26, 2015 4:03 PM
    rchites rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:31 AM Flag

    there is a reason they want in.

  • Reply to

    new short here

    by tzietlow Jan 26, 2015 4:03 PM
    rchites rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:31 AM Flag

    You are nothing but fuel. The OPEC oil minister just call a bottom in oil. Pickens say it will be 90 in 18 months and Barrons article just said smart money is going into oil. The 5 day chart for many is up now. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor & Prodtn ETF (XOP) - is up 9% for the week as many oil plays. Smart money is going into new funds for energy. Blackstone and other have new funds for the destroyed sector. The trend is up now.

  • Reply to

    Div Cut?

    by zappa.bull Jan 26, 2015 10:26 PM
    rchites rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:24 AM Flag

    You are about to miss every thing if you don't hop the train now. BOONE Pickens and the OPEC oil minister say oil has bottomed. Pickens say 90 dollar oil in 18 months again. Barrons just said smart money is starting to flow into the sector. Many of the stocks have a great week chart.......... ALL aboard

  • rchites by rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:19 AM Flag

    XOP up 9% also in a week

  • It would appear that the smart-money crowd has the discipline to buy into a sector when the headlines are bad.

  • Reply to


    by fairways002 Jan 27, 2015 12:44 AM
    rchites rchites Jan 27, 2015 1:11 AM Flag

    The New York Times reports that Blackstone, one of the world’s largest private equity firms, has finished raising $4.5 billion for a new fund “ dedicated to investments in the energy sector, as the private equity giant seeks to profit on the rout in oil prices, a person with knowledge of the matter said.”

    But Blackstone is not alone. According to the Times, Apollo Global Management, another private equity firm, is currently seeking to raise a new fund to buy the debt of troubled energy companies. Moreover, in the fall, the private equity firm Warburg Pincus raised $4 billion for its first fund dedicated to the energy sector.
    It would appear that the smart-money crowd has the discipline to buy into a sector when the headlines are bad. XOP is up 9% in a week

  • NOG ,SD, AXAS, BBEP, LINE VNR..................ITS time to move up ,,,,, We moved up big today as BBEP was up 21%,,,,,,,,,,,,VNR up 12%%%%%%%%%% and many up 6 and 8 %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% Time to load

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