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Sino Agro Food, Inc. Message Board

realdutch01 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 21, 2014 12:39 AM Member since: Apr 9, 2010
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  • Reply to

    reverse split

    by atfw Dec 19, 2014 10:25 AM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Dec 21, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    I did some research on reverse splits years ago. Turns out that the majority perform badly afterwards, but the minority that do well, do VERY well. That's why you can't make money shorting all stocks that do reverse splits. Otherwise it would be easy to get rich, right.

  • Reply to

    KABOOM

    by realdutch01 Nov 13, 2014 7:31 AM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Nov 13, 2014 8:32 AM Flag

    Shareholders equity up by RMB 97M in Q3. Almost the entire market cap of $17M.

  • Reply to

    KABOOM

    by realdutch01 Nov 13, 2014 7:31 AM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Nov 13, 2014 7:39 AM Flag

    "I'd set a buy order for $.99 to make sure I got all available shares under $1.00."

    And you would probably make some good money too.

  • realdutch01 by realdutch01 Nov 13, 2014 7:31 AM Flag

    "Earnings per fully diluted share were RMB 1.75 (US$ 0.28) for the third quarter ended September 30, 2014 as compared to RMB 0.21 for the third quarter of 2013. Per share calculations for the third quarters of 2014 and 2013 were computed using 20.4 million shares."

    Not bad for a company trading at 7% of book value. smile

    "As of September 30, 2014, our backlog was RMB 171.7 million (US$ 28.0 million) which represents approximately the next two months of revenue as of the end of the third quarter. This compares to a backlog of approximately RMB 155.0 million as of September 30, 2013, a year-over-year increase of 10.8%."

    Very solid.

  • Reply to

    SIAF

    by randall899 Oct 25, 2014 6:52 PM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Oct 25, 2014 10:28 PM Flag

    Randall. You pump the stock when you are long and you bash it after you sold.
    You add no value to this message board whatsoever.
    Go take a hike.

  • realdutch01 by realdutch01 Oct 18, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    From CGA's letter to shareholders yesterday. Related to the short attacks.

    Not only being untrue (which will be explained below), unauthorized video surveillance over a corporation is illegal serious crime espionage in China where the Company's operations are based. The surveillance, over time, was part of the short sellers' deliberate and destructive scheme aimed at weakening the Company's performance in the capital market. By publishing fraudulent allegations on the Internet, the short sellers had spread misleading presentations via illegal surveillance. The short sellers' business model is to disrupt the public with misleading information, sabotage the Company during the holidays, profit from the drops of the Company's share price, and destroy the Company with unprecedented tactics. The short sellers, who had engaged in corporate espionage, are saboteurs. They concealed their identities because they are afraid of the consequence of their malicious actions. The law enforcement in China does not take the espionage crime lightly. The city's police department in Xi'an had already taken up the case. The anti-business-crime task force in the police department is currently pursuing this as espionage, and will actively prosecute the liable saboteurs.

  • Reply to

    I bought HL today!

    by nationalsozialistischen Oct 2, 2014 9:55 AM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Oct 2, 2014 9:07 PM Flag

    "Short interest doubled last period."

    You mean, it was up from 22k to 49k.
    What the hell is wrong with you? You were a valuable poster back in the BCON days.

  • Reply to

    I bought HL today!

    by nationalsozialistischen Oct 2, 2014 9:55 AM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Oct 2, 2014 8:52 PM Flag

    SIAF was their first investment. So how could they be toxic financiers? And there are no warrants.

    I agree with the shorts though. But not as long as we are on OTC.
    The lot of them will get burned though. And I will enjoy every minute of it.

  • Reply to

    Split up of the company

    by drt_kill Oct 2, 2014 6:38 PM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Oct 2, 2014 8:08 PM Flag

    "2014 net profit per share is round $0.38-0.40"

    Closer to 0.77.

    You have 0.14 in Q1 and another 0.14 in Q2. Q3 and Q4 are always better because of the HU-plantation. And the slaughterhouse started production in late June.

  • Reply to

    I bought HL today!

    by nationalsozialistischen Oct 2, 2014 9:55 AM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Oct 2, 2014 7:46 PM Flag

    Hey numpty, did you short SIAF yet? Perhaps at $1?
    I think it's going to move up even faster.
    Never mind.

  • Reply to

    Split up of the company

    by drt_kill Oct 2, 2014 6:38 PM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Oct 2, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    Perhaps they will spin off SJAP in 2015 and the Slaughterhouse a year later, in 2016. That would make sense to me. Because they are actually 2 different companies. The slaughterhouse is called Qinghai Zhong He Meat Products Co., Limited (QZH)

    In that case we should expect half, or roughly $0.25/share from the SJAP spin off in 2015.

  • Reply to

    Split up of the company

    by drt_kill Oct 2, 2014 6:38 PM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Oct 2, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    The plan was to spin off one subsidiary (project company) every year and start with SJAP in 2014. But they built the abattoir so it was delayed by a year. I don't know if they will spin it off in 2015 because it's still ramping up fast.

    But suppose they do. They can fetch a P/E of 16 based on 2014 results. Which I expect to be $200M in revenue and $50M in profit. So that gives SJAP a 50x16 = $800M market value.

    SIAF owns a 45% stake and they can only spin off 30% if they want to maintain control (31.5%).
    So that's 45% * 30% * $800M = $108M in proceeds.

    Management wants to pay out half of that to the shareholders. That's what they said in the past and I think it's a fair assumption. Divide by 200M shares gives you roughly $0.50/share.

    I still don't think they will spin it off in 2015 though, because it's ramping up too fast. Which means it should be worth more than a P/E of 16 based on 2014 results. But we'll see.

  • realdutch01 realdutch01 Sep 26, 2014 1:34 PM Flag

    No. 63% GM was reported in the 10-Q. I used 50% net margin.

  • realdutch01 realdutch01 Sep 25, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    "as he apparently doesn't know the difference between GM and Net Income"

    I don't know what??? :-)

  • Reply to

    SIAF rock solid buy

    by realdutch01 Sep 24, 2014 12:07 PM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Sep 25, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    Every new farm, every contract, is a new joint venture. How would you do it? When/if they acquire a 50% stake then it becomes a subsidiary.

    SIAF gets paid to build the farm. They operate the farm. They market and sell the products. All the Chinese partner does is put up cash and apply for the necessary licenses/permits. In some cases they provide the land. So how are they going to screw SIAF? SIAF controls the whole thing and that's the way the partners like it.

  • Reply to

    SIAF rock solid buy

    by realdutch01 Sep 24, 2014 12:07 PM
    realdutch01 realdutch01 Sep 25, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    SIAF (CEO) has been doing RAS aquaculture for over 30 years. They don't do low margin fish like Tilapia. Only high margin fish like prawns, eels, sleepy cod, and more species to come. If you do your DD properly then you will learn that their know-how results in a level of efficiency that can't be matched by anyone. One reason is, they build the farms themselves from scratch. So they can experiment at will.

SIAF
0.740.00(0.00%)Dec 15 3:59 PMEST

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