Just listened to the investor conference. You might want to listen to a replay so that I'm not paraphrasing, but the reasons given for no generic competition got quite a bit of interest in the question & answer phase.
Boolean, I do believe Ray has been fair and a friend to the other shareholders, and I also believe his financial interests are aligned with the other shareholders. That does not mean I will blindly trust his judgement. The advice I will take from you came from the USEG board, when you said "show me the money."
I have not asked for your advice about selling. I would sell if I thought the shares had proper value. Prior to the announcement, I thought ESTE shares were drastically undervalued. Now just because they make the deal of the century, but are still waiting withhold the details to shareholder, IMO, it's not a reason to sell....But I would like to see that proxy report sooner as opposed to later.
By giving up 5/6 of the company, it's a new game.
I suspect Ray's incentives are aligned with the other shareholders. He won't be able to sell his shares until after the merger closes. So you have to hope he had the common sense to make a deal good for present Earthstone shareholders.
There's a lot that still hasn't been explained. Like how we justify getting one sixth of the shares while supplying 1/3 of the PV-10. While I acknowledge that the $138 million is worth something, it hasn't been disclosed what kind of liabilities are coming with Oak Valley.
In addition all PV-10 isn't necessarily alike. There's an intangible of unproved reserves which could be substantial to Earthstone's existing properties. On the other hand, most of Oak Valley's existing properties including the Eagleford were just acquired by them so I suspect their intangibles are less.
We have not seen any operating estimates from Oak Valley, so to assume any EPS level is a stretch. It is possible the new company's eps could be drastically reduced. At any rate, there are lots of unknowns, IMO the proxy will explain some of them and I think it's worthwhile to wait for that report. I haven't seen any estimated date for release of the proxy but I won't make an opinion about the future potential of Earthstone until I see that proxy.
I actually see that as quite bullish. If you'll look at the entire transaction, the insiders exercised options, sold enough shares to cover their cash outlay, but each of them acquired more shares than the sold.
Looking at the CC, they need FDA approval to use Exparel as a nerve block in many surgeries.
You can bet there will be some extra administrative and legal fees for this deal, so any current quarter eps estimates will have to be revised.
I don't know what you mean as soon, I suspect the analysts will have to wait for the proxy to be filed, because right now there isn't enough public information on the finances. I doubt any of them have access to insider info that they would publish.
In addition, the 10K typically has been filed around June 15, and the deadline is June 30. Plus we have the investor conference on June 24.
I listened to the conference call while in my car on the highway, and agree, there were lots of interested analysts. This company has never had an analyst on it so that addition could be quite helpful to the share price and eps multiple.
Bakken production down 27% year over year, from 83,773 to 61,096 BOE equivalent, amounting to 64 BOE/ per well per day….
Mineral property expenses of $757K despite no revenues.
Loss on derivatives of $331K
General and administrative expenses increasing year over year by 26% to $1.606 million……
Despite all those headwinds, the company earned one cent per share. Wow!
One noticeable element of this disastrous quarter is the comparison of costs from last year to this year from the 10Qs. The sum of oil & production expense and oil depletion & depreciation is down a million dollars from last year and its ratio to revenues has gone from 79.5% to 63.8%.
Revenues: $7.879 M
Prod Costs: $ 6.260M
Ratio of cost to revs: …79.5%
Revenues: $8.256 M
Prod Costs: $ 5.266M
Ratio of cost to revs: : …63.8%
At the same time the South Texas production has gone from a mere 8.5% to 34.9% of revenues. That would imply that the profit off South Texas Buda wells is extremely high. Just using a simple regression against the incremental change in production, I come up with a cost of less than $20/BOE. As the Buda well production becomes a bigger part of USEG production, it will transform the earnings reports.
Earthstone was basically acquired, except that it is being used to make Oak Valley a publicly traded company.
However, you'd think the directors would like to get fair value for their shares....
So the question of the day, what is the new fair value?
For a 2.8% working interest in 96 Bakken wells, a few very nice but small legacy wells, some pie in the Nebraska sky and access to Wall Street without doing an IPO.
Would you think they expect more than $28 per share?
Ray and Ed Huffman, etc. haven't sold yet. So there ought to be some hope that the share price will increase further. That's enough for me, since there was a unanimous agreement to do this deal. Their money is at stake.
While I think we had the old Earthstone pretty much figured out, we have to start all over. We need a complete set of finances. We need to find out the quality of the assets. We need to know what plans might exist for the $138 million in cash.
Don't sell yet. Get ready for a whole new debate.
Yes, fortunately I was on the road and listened to the whole thing.
While they were unwilling to respond to any non public info, the new management is very positive about their previous track record, They want to grow the company and emphasized how they have made investors lots of money on previous ventures.
Otherwise, there were five or six analysts estimates on the call, some of them knew the new CEO, and there will be a proxy coming out that details the financials.....
Mashinsky is a private equity guy, doesn't want to run the company long term, but after muscling Peter out, he will likely put more focus on some shareholder value.
Since the success of Buda wells is still an unknown, and their ultimate average well could impact whether the shares are worth $4 or $16, you might want to consider some micro analysis.
On Monday, MCF will do an investor conference,and in it there might be the results of the Beeler 9 & 5. The production rates of these wells might give us a better projection of the remaining wells. The impact is huge.