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Planar Systems Inc. Message Board

realinvestmentstrategies 125 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 8:23 AM Member since: Feb 27, 2002
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  • realinvestmentstrategies by realinvestmentstrategies Apr 13, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Statoil group does 308K oil, second best ever, but down from 355K reported in January. Of course there were 3 fewer production days in February.

    Of note was 52 wells listed, compared to only 48 in January. 11 of the 52 wells reported no production. Of the 48 wells in January, 8 wells showed no production. That would imply more production coming in future months.

  • Reply to

    SCH rating now an "A"

    by margin321 Apr 14, 2014 11:49 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 14, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    Yahool analyst's estimates still don't seem to reflect the expansion in Buda, or even more Bakken wells. Only expect revenue of $41.3 million for 2014 and $46.7 million for 2015. When these get updated, they should go into Schwab and all the others.

  • Reply to

    NDIC Directors Cut

    by richardclovis Apr 14, 2014 10:49 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 15, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    Thanks Richard, I hadn’t been aware of that link before. I’ve posted a few more quarters to show some history after we had the blowout quarter ending Sept 30, 2013.

    While the average price tanked after that, the recent quarter shows prices higher than the last one by about 7.7%. Also consider the additional production being reported by the Statoil location, you could assume the quarter ending March 31, 2014 might show oil production in the range of 50-55K boe.

    Maybe that would be enough info for Truth to make his next earnings forecast…

    JulSweet Crude Price = $95.78/barrel
    AugSweet Crude Price = $93.97/barrel
    SepSweet Crude Price = $92.96/barrel
    ---Avg: $94.24

    Oct Sweet Crude Price = $85.16/barrel
    Nov Sweet Crude Price = $71.42/barrel
    Dec Sweet Crude Price = $73.47/barrel
    ---Avg: $76.68

    Jan Sweet Crude Price = $74.20/barrel
    Feb Sweet Crude Price = $86.89/barrel
    Mar Sweet Crude Price = $86.72/barrel
    ---Avg: $82.60

  • Reply to

    SCH rating now an "A"

    by margin321 Apr 14, 2014 11:49 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 15, 2014 11:21 PM Flag

    Richard, (not to be confused with the other Richard), would you have a revenue estimate for 2015? Assume oil stays at the same price.

  • Reply to

    strong hands?

    by bc_i_lsn Apr 16, 2014 2:58 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 16, 2014 11:00 PM Flag

    Tex, after telling that whopper on the ESTE board the other night

    Then forgetting to multiply that out by the 10.4 net wells. How can I believe anything you say? I don’t believe you were that stupid and just erred.

  • Reply to

    strong hands?

    by bc_i_lsn Apr 16, 2014 2:58 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 17, 2014 9:17 PM Flag

    83 (82.88) boe/d per well times 10.4 net wells comes to 862 boe/d, a figure announced in the March 14, 2014 Earnings call transcript as 74% of total net daily production during the year.

  • realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 18, 2014 11:02 PM Flag

    While I'm a bit new to this company, the idea of having two separate lines of business usually doesn't help the share price. It normally confuses investors which tends to dilute the value of the investment.

    More specifically Mt Emmons may have value, but it is a cash drain and unknown liability or asset and completely different from oil. It not only dilutes investor knowledge, but also dilutes management attention.

    If the company were bigger, this would be a classic case for a tax free spin off, giving shareholders new shares for the Mt Emmons business. However, I don't believe there is enough value in it to warrant a separate company, so just put it up for sale, but don't sell it until a fair offer is made.

  • realinvestmentstrategies by realinvestmentstrategies Apr 20, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    Current four quarter trailing P/E ratio is 10.65.

    Let’s look at the performance over the last eight quarter and see if we can project out where we might be in another eight quarters…..

    Quarter ending March 31, 2012
    BOE Oil: 28,263
    Sales: $2,776,000
    EPS: $.43

    Quarter ending June 30, 2012
    BOE Oil: 26,999
    Sales: $2,347,000
    EPS: $.16

    Quarter ending Sept. 30, 2012
    BOE Oil: 31,169
    Sales: $2,809,000
    EPS: $.28

    Quarter ending Dec. 31, 2012
    BOE Oil: 31,549
    Sales: $2,834,000
    EPS: $.22

    Quarter ending March 31, 2013
    BOE Oil: 32,938
    Sales:$3,380,000
    EPS: $.35

    Quarter ending June 30, 2013
    BOE Oil: 36,967
    Sales: $3,595,000
    EPS: $.40

    Quarter ending Sept. 30, 2013
    BOE Oil: 42,706
    Sales: 4,672,000
    EPS: $.71

    Quarter ending Dec. 31, 2013
    BOE Oil: 47,153
    Sales: $4,474,000
    EPS: $.54

    Keep in mind that the Statoil project is planned for 96 wells, yet the quarter ending Dec. 2013 got production from about only 35 wells.

    What still is unknown is how fast production will decline in those Bakken wells after they’ve been online for 1, 2 or 5 years, etc.

  • realinvestmentstrategies by realinvestmentstrategies Apr 20, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    If you look at the year over year change in net property on the balance sheet, it was virtually unchanged, up only $1 million, starting at $110.8 million and ending at $111.8 million.

    Under such a situation, you’d expect the PV-10 valuation year over year to be about the same. However that was not the case in 2013. Instead, the PV-10 rose from $76.5 million to $115.1 million, a $38.6 million increase.

    Or you might want to consider another metric listed in the 10K report, the standardized measure of discounted cash flow. This represents the PV-10 with income tax taken out. It rose from $71 million to $105 million, a $34 million dollar increase. Take the difference in net property investment and you end up with a $33 million difference off balance sheet.

    None of the change in standardized measure is reflected on the balance sheet or income statement, it’s all off balance sheet. As a result, there is an argument to be made that 2013 was a much better year the shown on the GAAP finanacials, its income was $33 million better than what is reported.

    That would have changed eps from a loss of $.27 to a profit of $.93!

  • realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 20, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    I see your point. While the undeveloped mining properties showed no year to year change, their value is significant.

    If we take the year end standardized measure of $105 million and compare it to the $80 million cost basis on proved reserves only, that’s quite a premium.

  • Reply to

    Where's the analyst coverage of this stock ?

    by texxoil Apr 22, 2014 10:41 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 22, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    It's True_truth.

  • Reply to

    Where's the analyst coverage of this stock ?

    by texxoil Apr 22, 2014 10:41 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 22, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    IMO, the company hasn't been big enough to warrant an analyst following it. However as quarterly sales increase to $5, 6 and 7 million etc., that may change.

    As I've pointed out several times in the past, an analyst could greatly help the company get a fair valuation. Right now a guy new to this company like Tex has no idea what to expect for the future. How is he to come up with an estimate? So he (and others just like him) take a pass.

    So us long termers just use the message board to make our guesses in a forum where hardly anyone pays attention. I'd say Q4 ending March 31, 2014 comes in with $5.1 million in revenue, and eps of $.73. Then look for the following quarter to show revenue of $5.7 million and eps of $.89. But since True_truth is the board's official analyst, it's time for him to update his forcast.

  • Reply to

    Where's the analyst coverage of this stock ?

    by texxoil Apr 22, 2014 10:41 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 22, 2014 11:20 PM Flag

    Go to the sec dot gov site and pull up Earthstone's last 10-K report filed around June 15, 2013. Attachment 99.1 shows the Ryder Scott report broken down by Bakken wells vs the traditional wells. The regular 10K also has data on the standardized measure which is PV-10 less taxes.

    The last 10K covered the period ending March 31, 2013. There has been no info on reserves, PV10 or BOE levels that I am aware of since then. However, I expect a significant change in the next one after all the investment and improvement in oil pricing. Next 10-K should come out in about seven weeks.

  • Reply to

    North Dakota Winter

    by ssuehtemorp Apr 17, 2014 3:02 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 25, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    I’ve done the math and I don’t come to your conclusion about the bounce back in March.

    According to the records, production was as follows for the 18 wells

    March 2014
    Total production: 62,317
    Days: 31
    Average daily production per well: 111.7

    Feb 2014
    Total production: 58,038
    Days: 28
    Average daily production per well: 115.2

    Jan 2014
    Total production: 66,279
    Days: 31
    Average daily production per well: 118.8

    Q4 2013
    Total production: 206,779
    Days: 92
    Average daily production per well: 124.9

    At any rate, kudos to Pocilujko for posting the March data so timely.

  • Reply to

    May - June..........oh my

    by booleansearcher Apr 27, 2014 1:52 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 27, 2014 9:32 PM Flag

    Why would you suggest a sell in May?

    It looks like quarterly revenues and EPS are going to increase rapidly over the next two or three quarters. IMO, the share price doesn't reflect that kind of growth.

  • Reply to

    Sell in March

    by unclebobbyrednecker Apr 28, 2014 8:45 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 28, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    And I thought you’d be comparing the eerie similarity of Ray’s quote vs what we told us back in 2011….

    We anticipate that this reevaluation and exploitation will positively impact production, in addition to reserves, and have a meaningful impact on the value of the Company.

  • realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 28, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    My initial reaction to the huge down open off good news was a classic short attack. When the computer bot figures out there are no immediate buyers, it puts in a small trade to itself, knocking the price down to shock anyone who might have been planning to buy.

    However, after getting email alerts on nearly a third of my followings, everyone of them with a 5% decline, maybe it’s just an awful day, with some one wanting their cash out of ESTE.

  • Reply to

    Why down?

    by redsky_night Apr 28, 2014 12:30 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 28, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    There was a very odd pattern of short trading today suggesting to me that there was no established investor dumping his stock. Instead the seller sold short and will have to cover later on.

    According to the Reg Sho site

    NYSE
    Short Shares: 100
    Total Shares: 200

    Nasdaq
    Short Shares: 2177
    Total Shares: 6655

    ADF
    Short Shares: 6223
    Total Shares: 6423

    Adding all three together, you get 13,278 total shares with 8500 short, a 64% short ratio. Yet the ADF report shows a 97% short ratio. Just ridiculous considering that 30% is normal.

  • Reply to

    Now An Earnings Momentum Stock

    by preteristauthor666 Apr 30, 2014 11:27 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Apr 30, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    Just looking at the Yahoo analysts estimates revision, I'd say they've zeroed in on a better estimate for Q1 and Q2, but they have not reflected the growth for the remainder of the year, or FY 2015.

    There might be some more revisions coming.

  • realinvestmentstrategies by realinvestmentstrategies May 1, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    "We have just completed a challenging quarter as weather adversely affected our activity level. Although the team worked tirelessly through the weather conditions, the impact on our operations was of a meaningful enough size that we believed it to be prudent to reset our full year production guidance."

    KOG...

PLNR
2.49-0.01(-0.40%)Jul 11 4:00 PMEDT

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