Tex, after telling that whopper on the ESTE board the other night
Then forgetting to multiply that out by the 10.4 net wells. How can I believe anything you say? I don’t believe you were that stupid and just erred.
Richard, (not to be confused with the other Richard), would you have a revenue estimate for 2015? Assume oil stays at the same price.
Thanks Richard, I hadn’t been aware of that link before. I’ve posted a few more quarters to show some history after we had the blowout quarter ending Sept 30, 2013.
While the average price tanked after that, the recent quarter shows prices higher than the last one by about 7.7%. Also consider the additional production being reported by the Statoil location, you could assume the quarter ending March 31, 2014 might show oil production in the range of 50-55K boe.
Maybe that would be enough info for Truth to make his next earnings forecast…
JulSweet Crude Price = $95.78/barrel
AugSweet Crude Price = $93.97/barrel
SepSweet Crude Price = $92.96/barrel
Oct Sweet Crude Price = $85.16/barrel
Nov Sweet Crude Price = $71.42/barrel
Dec Sweet Crude Price = $73.47/barrel
Jan Sweet Crude Price = $74.20/barrel
Feb Sweet Crude Price = $86.89/barrel
Mar Sweet Crude Price = $86.72/barrel
Yahool analyst's estimates still don't seem to reflect the expansion in Buda, or even more Bakken wells. Only expect revenue of $41.3 million for 2014 and $46.7 million for 2015. When these get updated, they should go into Schwab and all the others.
Statoil group does 308K oil, second best ever, but down from 355K reported in January. Of course there were 3 fewer production days in February.
Of note was 52 wells listed, compared to only 48 in January. 11 of the 52 wells reported no production. Of the 48 wells in January, 8 wells showed no production. That would imply more production coming in future months.
Two others worth comparing are DATA and PCRX. My intent is not to recommend any of these to you, but rather show how numerous growing tech companies have a similar six month chart. The whole sector has given back a lot.
Check out PCRX. Unique inject-able pain drug used during surgery. Just issued more shares to raise capital for a massive expansion. While I normally dislike share dilution, this last one was for a good reason, probably created a buying opportunity.
No Oilly, you are wrong. Of all people, you should realize that mature Bakken wells do not produce 830 boe/day. It doesn’t pass the test for reasonableness. The figure I gave you of 83 per well was accurate.
Check out page 4 of the March 14, 2014 Earnings call transcript where full year operations are discussed for the Williston Basin…
862 total divided by 10.4 wells equals 83 Boe/day!
Sorry to bother all you regulars in this. In fact, I had a hunch my comment would elicit a reply like that from him, so I am partly responsible.
But for his comment about the bullying and name calling, it happened the other way around. After someone came to the ESTE message board sometime back and invited us the check out USEG, I checked their stock out and posted a few messages on their board. As soon as I commented on a couple of the USEG skeletons, there was a tag team effort by Oilly and Barry to dis me which included making fun of me, giving me lots of thumbs down and calling me so many names I can’t remember them all. Then they accused me of being Boolean, the same person using multiple ids.
After a couple of weeks, I bought some USEG shares, so I have a legitimate right to post on their board. Some of that means asking about a few other USEG skeletons, what I discovered is that any of that discussion gets a prompt level of dissing from Oilly, which almost seems comical, so I enticed him more (I plan to confess this sin to the Father next time around), and then I pointed out to him that he seems paranoid, a statement which I still believe is true.
However, I believe the statement regarding USEG’s 96 Bakken wells averaging only 83 BOE/day is a valid issue for us because ESTE has Bakken wells. Did USEG just get junky wells, or is 83 BOE/day what lies ahead for ESTE’s Bakken wells in a couple of years?
Your Investor Village posting shows more production in February than January, the primary reason being new production in February from the Beeler 8H well.
Since the Slide show indicates a decline in February production, I’m thinking USEG may not have included results from the Beeler 8H.
At any rate, the posting also shows there could be production reported from four additional Buda wells in the next month or two.
While your personality seems to compel you to chase Boolean back to his home board, we know you have good engineering and technical background in oil.
As a result, maybe you could explain to Earthstone shareholders how USEG wound up with working interests in 96 Bakken wells who's 2013 average production ended up only 83 BOE/day?
There weren't that many shares involved. Besides, was there any really important news disclosed?
The Fe/bruary production for 2.1 Buda wells, also published in that slide show seems unrealistically low, only 406 BOE/day.
It didn't say if any of the wells were shut in during that period.
So what has changed?
The company still plans to spend $12.6 on 3.15 net Buda wells this year. And $9.6 million on 1.1 Bakken wells. Plus another $8 million for acquisitions and other development. That's it!
Interesting. I've been on vacation this week and used some of my excess time to post here. Unfortunately, it seems to have irritated some of the board regulars, an easy thing to do.
But as a subject that might have more general interest, do you have any explanation why the shares tanked so severely in the last two days. And why do you consider the current price a good buying point?
Regarding where the share price will go and when is sometimes difficult to know. There are always outside influences, and it appears the shorts have used yesterday's news and the really bad short term market to pound USEG back off its high.
While I'm not a chart guy, I do note that the volume was less over the last two days than it was when the shares surged off the 10K report.
If USEG has several more months of production disappointments, there might be a problem, but one bad month by itself will soon be forgotten.
Oilly can't put them on ignore. Then statements might be made and he would have no way to protect the message board.
IMO, a one month production report is immaterial to the company's prospects. Aside from the weather, there are all sorts of factors that accelerate or delay new wells. Once things are stabilized, the revenue can come in for ten years or more.
Beyond the current year's drilling plan is the overall potential of multiple years where these leases exist, plus the intangible that the staff might have its eye on more prospects.
Despite all this, True Truth isn't interested in USEG at the present time either, and he is the Earthstone guru. Truth stated that he doesn't post on this board at all, and is concerned about the legacy liabilities. Whether that influenced Boolean, or whether he was just trying to get your goat, I don't know.