Just remember, if they can cause an irregularity in a single day, they can have the same proportional impact over months.
Most of the trading occurred in three blocks amounting to 2,800 shares, the lion share traded at 15.05/shr.
As soon as it was over, the bid jumped to 15.40 with no shares traded until the close. Then one share trades at 15.67 to set the final day's price.
It's possible to get out of a thinly traded and highly hated stock like Planar, even if you hold 20K, 30K or even 50K shares that you want to dump. You have to show some patience because the volume swings quite a bit from day to day. While some days there is almost no trading, on others there will be some volume.
I'd suggest placing an order for about 5K at about the bid price. Make it an all or nothing order because you don't want some high frequency trading scooping up 300 shares of your bid then just walking the price down. If nobody bites try it again a couple days later. Sometimes the MM or other high frequency trade computer will scoop up the shares you've offered, even if there are no real buyers.
Also put in a volume email alert, so that when you get a higher volume day, you are alerted and get another chance to dump some shares. If you pay attention, and do it in increments, you should be able to unload your shares within a few weeks.
If you look at that data, four of the five original wells that opened up around October 2011 are still producing solid levels:
Banks State 16-21 1H..0
Gunderson 15-22 1H…6639
I suspect this might be a good estimate for long term stabilized production rates. The total of these five wells was 32,360. Divide by five wells, and 31 days of production, you get 209 barrels per day.
Within two years, Earthstone has announced plans to put 95 wells into production in the Banks, including the wells already on line. With all of them online, and a 3-4% working interest at 209 BOPD, quarterly production from this field comes to 54,200 to 72,300 BOE. Earthstone also gets about 20,000 BOE from non Banks Field oil wells.
The quarter ending June 30, 2013 disclosed production of about 37,000 BOE. So looking forward, we could expect production rates of 100-150% more. Bobby has suggested this might not do much for earnings because the depletion rates are too high.
I’ve always felt you gotta look at how something’s priced. If it’s priced to high, sell it, if it’s priced too low buy it.
In comparing oil companies there are a number of metrics that can be used. P/E ratio. Premium of market cap to net tangible worth. Book property value to PV=10, etc.
When I compare thissen to other comps like FPP, REN or KOG, it seems to get about half value of these other companies. It didn’t used to be that way, but after the share price slide that started in the spring of 2012, thissen has been valued quite a bit less than the others. Would you think the CEO had anything to do with the lack of respect in the share price?
Good news. There is massive good news coming about this company.
I actually called Huffman and discussed the PR issue he posted. Ray is a good guy, done lots of things right and I don't want to micromanage him.
But I am in total agreement with Huffman about the PR specialist. Ray isn't perfect, and since he's an oil man, he shouldn't be expected to be an expert in public relations. There's lots more revenue coming in, so Ray should spend a piece of that money on the PR firm to do the job right. It's critical to getting the P/E ratio where it ought to be, and well worth the investment. This company is growing and that means adjustments have to be made.
I hope both Edgar and Ray have read this. Edgar said he might have his representative push for it at the shareholders meeting.
Cramer talked tonight about the UPOD and OPUD.
The UPOD (under promise over deliver) is a classic method used by growth companies to propel their stock prices.
The OPUD(over promise under deliver) is a recipe for disaster.
We know which one Ray picked. What a timely topic for Mad Money!
Now that I've had a chance to re-look at Ray's July 2 press release, I'm wondering why did he have to say this?.....we are encouraged by many positive attributes of this specific location and are optimistic about what we may find here. We anticipate that these efforts will positively impact production and reserves and have a meaningful impact on the value of the Company......
And just a few weeks later, Ray has egg on his face again.
I'm not criticising the Nebraska project. I don't have any idea whether this will make money or not. It's just the way the announcement was done.
Ray is a PR disaster. He whopped this thing up, even though it was in the near term exploratory stage, now the big disappointment.
Even if he needed to disclose the drilling, I'm with Edgar Huffman on this...a PR firm could have more carefully guided the statement, which needed some caution. Now Ray has egg on his face again, and we don't even know where this is going....More testing, a better location.....Plug it and ackowledging that Nebraska was a bad deal....What do you think?
Good volume today, fourth best of the year.
And almost no short selling after two previous days of high short ratio.
You'd think with the high price of oil, now more than $109 on the NYM, and with the big boost in production announced by Truth, we'd see a more specific bump to ESTE stock.
IMO, Truth has underestimated the next quarter. I think we'll see over $5 million in revenues and EPS of $.75, assuming no one time charges against the Nebraska project.
This is an example of why the quarterly earnings report should be considered as only one aspect of the value and progress of the company.
One thing that ought to be clear about Nebraska. It is a drain on current earnings and probably all financial statements for at least the next year.
Yet the same thing could have been said when Earthstone was lining up all those leases on the Banks Field. They had administrative costs in analyzing the properties, eventually invested some capital and now those leases are producing.
It may be quite a while before Nebraska shows tangible results, or maybe it even ends up a bust. But right now it shows some future potential, that’s an intangible that will not be reflected in near term EPS or the balance sheet.