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Cubic Corporation Message Board

realinvestmentstrategies 136 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Feb 27, 2002
  • realinvestmentstrategies by realinvestmentstrategies Oct 24, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    He says the Saudi's are planning to crush the frackers.

    While I suspect the Buda projects would continue, it doesn't say much for USEG's Bakken properties.

  • Reply to

    Dented Stock

    by paul_goddard Oct 24, 2014 11:47 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 24, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    There is an unbelievable short position in this company which probably explains the carnage. However, at some point the shorts will have done all the damage that can possibly be done.

  • Reply to

    Doesn't seem to catch a tailwind very well

    by margin321 Oct 23, 2014 11:50 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 23, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    While your point about oil is well taken, not all stocks are alike.

    If you listen to the guys on IV, the USEG properties are probably worth three times what the share price would suggest. Even with oil down, those Buda properties are still being developed with a very high IRR.

  • Reply to

    Doesn't seem to catch a tailwind very well

    by margin321 Oct 23, 2014 11:50 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 23, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Also might get some details about the mystery operator.

  • realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 23, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Would you think the lower oil prices are permanent or temporary?

  • Reply to

    Oil at $80.59

    by unclebobbyrednecker Oct 22, 2014 4:11 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 22, 2014 10:18 PM Flag

    Just looking through the May 16th 8k, I could not find any covenant relating to a share price minimum. I searched on share, also looked at the termination section on page 34. However it is a big document, so I can't guarantee something might have been missed.

    But my instinct says they are acting like the merger will take place. You don't have Oak Valley agree to buy oil assets with Earthstone shares if one of the parties expects the merger to be abandoned.

  • Reply to

    Oil at $80.59

    by unclebobbyrednecker Oct 22, 2014 4:11 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 22, 2014 9:19 PM Flag

    In the event the merger failed, ESTE stock would be toast, considering the huge Bakken exposure.

    However, with the merger, a huge majority of ESTE holdings will end up in Texas. While lower oil prices hurt all drillers, you are showing a $14 discount for North Dakota oil. Things aren't as bad in Texas.

  • Reply to

    Parallel universe

    by booleansearcher Oct 19, 2014 6:04 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 20, 2014 9:26 PM Flag

    Is that why you are so hot on Lucas Energy? Do you have faith in their management, I mean manager?

  • Reply to

    Parallel universe

    by booleansearcher Oct 19, 2014 6:04 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 19, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    While you claim to be often too early but occasionally wrong, I think neither applies to your double move into Lucas Energy, as the stock will be delisted and diluted.

  • Reply to

    One of the many questions

    by bcfbubba Oct 17, 2014 5:09 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 18, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    IMO, the top people should be engaged with the mine, monitoring its data to ensure environmental compliance. There should be meetings with the mining staff so that the management knows where they are going next and how the strategy needs to be adapted. They need to be informed so that they can respond to the government and the local town people.

    They also need some one at the Bakken and S Texas well locations. They should see first hand how new well performance is going. There should be a constant review of proposed new well locations, and monitoring to see what the future development schedule od. If I were the management, I'd do lots of wining and dining with managers of affiliated companies. That's where the exchange of new ideas can come from.

    I doubt much of the creativity of future development can come from an office in Riverton, WY. Instead, these guys need to be out in the field where the action is taking place. Maybe they are, and that's why the right people aren't there to take your phone calls.

  • Reply to

    Huge Dilution coming?

    by unclebobbyrednecker Oct 17, 2014 9:50 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 17, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    I see your point about issuing shares when they also expect to have $138 million in cash. Or maybe they have additional deals coming out.

  • Reply to

    Huge Dilution coming?

    by unclebobbyrednecker Oct 17, 2014 9:50 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 17, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    While they don't say what the Flatonia properties are worth, a deal like this reaffirms that the merger with Oak Valley is highly likely to occur.

    As I stated in an earlier post, the ESTE share price is undervalued assuming the merger completes because $138 million of cash is going in. Weakness in new property development at the Banks field will be immaterial because the combined company has so many other development opportunities available to it in Texas.

  • Reply to

    The impact of low oil prices....

    by realinvestmentstrategies Oct 16, 2014 8:05 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 16, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    In the three years I've followed ESTE's production with Statoil, I had not seen 80% average declines after one year. However, it's just one limited region and I get your point.

    Also your comment at State-Run seems to apply right now. Some how even though almost no one saw this oil decline come, it happens just in time to punish Putin. And if the rule ---never waste a crisis----applies, we get low gas prices just as we're about to have an election.

    The flip side of this is that maybe a price rebound could happen as fast as the price collapse.

  • Reply to

    Called Reggie today ( he was out yesterday)

    by bcfbubba Oct 16, 2014 12:37 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 16, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    Why would you expect his most important work to be in the Riverton Wyoming office?

  • realinvestmentstrategies by realinvestmentstrategies Oct 16, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    Shale wells typically decline in production by 50% after the first year. So if low oil prices knock out new US drilling projects, we could have an oil shortage real quick.

  • Reply to

    Could be an ugly day today fellars

    by unclebobbyrednecker Oct 15, 2014 9:24 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 15, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    If the merger goes through, Earthstone is drastically undervalued due to the extra $138 million in cash the deal brings.

    However, if the merger does not go through, Earthstone is left with a Banks property that is worth much less than it was a few months ago. The shares would likely tank, IMO.

  • Reply to

    NEWS?

    by booleansearcher Oct 12, 2014 9:29 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 14, 2014 11:03 PM Flag

    We don't need to dance. You made that post about the Quiet Period, then never explained it. Now you hint at news but don't explain it either.

    So I state a few pieces of real live news, still you don't tell us your point, instead you ask me to dance.

  • Reply to

    USEG needs a COO

    by bcfbubba Oct 13, 2014 4:15 PM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 13, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    If you look at that group of 32 oil & gas stocks I posted on IV, the sector is down about 35% off its 200 day moving average. However, as a group, the companies still have a market cap averaging at least 150% of book value, whereas the USEG market cap is only 67% of book value.

    That's surprising to me, as it seems USEG is much less at risk to any cash crisis than some of the companies with high debt or those with more exposure to Bakken properties.

  • realinvestmentstrategies by realinvestmentstrategies Oct 13, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    At least USEG has low debt and quality properties. Buda wells fetch about $15 more per barrel than the Bakken.

  • Reply to

    NEWS?

    by booleansearcher Oct 12, 2014 9:29 AM
    realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies Oct 12, 2014 8:36 PM Flag

    The current news is that the ESTE merger date has been extended after Oak Valley failed to come up with the cash that was part of the deal.

    Also in the news is that ESTE's stock trades at quite a bit less than the net tangible worth of new company once both entities combine their assets.

    Another piece of news is that development in the Banks field seems to have stopped. The next few quarters at ESTE might not be so hot without Oak Valley.

    But then you prefer not to do micro analysis, so as long we are in your MAX OVERSOLD situation right now, does that mean everything is ok? Or is this news going to be of a different dimension?

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