The company will have added $12 million to its net properties for the full fiscal year, so if your discouned pv-10 figure only went up from $31.6 million to $39 million, that $7.4 million increase would be quite a disappointment. It would show the new investments would be creating negative value.
IMO, it will end up quite a bit higher. My guess $50 million, March 31, 2014.. For clarification, that figure is the standardized measure of discounted cash flow shown in the 10-K report.
Truth, I don’t know how you got your PV-10 estimate, but the Ryder Scott report listed last year’s PV-10 at $42.9 million. This figure is no longer published in the 10K report. It has been replaced by the standardized measure of discounted cash flow which is a PV-10 plus taxes taken out. That figure ended up at $31.6 million at the end of last year.
If you haven’t looked at the Ryder Scott report, go to the sec website, pull up the 10-K and you’ll find it as an attachment called 99.3.
That report showed Bakken oil valued a $82.26 and gas at 1.96. The other properties were valued at $91.08 for oil and 4.18 for gas. IMO, we will get a 5-10% bump on average pricing.
As far as reserves go, it’s a wild guess. Much of the last year’s investments are going towards converting undeveloped property into developed property. So it’s the shift that matters more than the total BOE. At the same time, it would be nice to see more undeveloped properties acknowledged with proved reserves.
At any rate, this will be a very interesting and terribly important piece of info when the 10K report comes out around June 15.
Glad you liked the tip. I have two more...ESTE, small very secure and undervalued...three year play, but once in a while there is a big pop.
The other one is PCRX, some risk, but an incredible play, unique drug that reduces pain three days after surgery...Could see a ten fold increase in revenues within three years....If you invest in this one, watch the news every day, ei if a problem like a lawsuit started there is lots of downside risk.
While I'm giving you two good tips, nothing is guaranteed. Even Cramer said once a good investor is only right 52% of the time and wrong 48%. If you like what I told you just buy a little, and watch, get familiar with them, and look for any change in fundamentals.
Wouldn't it be nice to see a few of the other old guys respond.
For the record, today's reg sho listed 61% of today's sales as short, a very high ratio. Basically they beat down the share price despite some one's effort to buy.
So what I see, after previously showing how the shorts abandoned ESTE twice just before earnings announcement (they were terrified of a short squeeze in that time period, IMO), then get back in after earnings (when they expect low volume), this is a calculated effort by a high frequency trader/manipulator to beat the share price down.
Historically these things never go on forever, the pop is out there waiting for us on some unknown date. It's happened before so don't be surprised when it comes again.
This is great news.
As we know, Ray has not been very consistent with his information. Sometimes he tells us too much, other times not enough. And often the press releases contain errors. Like the last one stating eps of 54 in the first paragraph, but eps of 60 cents in the table. I guess some one didn't proof read that one. And I'm still miffed at the annual meeting chart forecasting 155K boe for the full fiscal year.
Since Ray never got a PR person as recommended by that former board person, it's nice to have you to get us that info. Thanks.
Ray stopped supplying quarterly information about reserves this year, so I suspect the only update we would have is in the 10K report which should come out around June 15.
More important than the total reserve figure would be the breakdown between developed producing, developed non-producing and undeveloped.
I'm disappointed in the press release. It says eps of 54 cents, then when you read the financials, it say eps of 60 cents. Which is it?
During the war against TLCV....
DC8flier, Laman, shortbuster, wdf, mdon, questor, ROBBCARPDM, lasikinvetor, tomcat, skeeterville, stock watcher, even donnieappleseed came in for a bit, plus many others.
It was a culture unlike any other, ever. While I’ll miss it, that board ended a long time ago.
Truth, after looking at these numbers we again have to conclude there is a mismatch between the North Dakota monthly production reports and Earthstone’s revenue.
However, it wouldn’t make any sense that the production came from other wells under the radar you mentioned like Zenergy, Newfield, Marathon. In the annual meeting, the slides showed all that new production coming from the Banks field.
I have another theory. While I don’t do regression analyses any more, I suspect you’d find a huge correlation to Earthstone’s reported revenues vs. the North Dakota monthly reports one quarter in arrears. I’m suggesting that what got reported in the North Dakota results July - September, ends up in Earthstone’s quarter October - December. Check it out over the last two years and see if you agree.
At any rate, this was a huge beat on revenues, production and earnings. What we are missing is a press release.
While you say this quarter is huge for us, Truth (a guy you accused of paying too much attention to the details) has forecast a disappointing quarter compared to last....there will even be a sequential decline in oil production.
Boolean, you are a genius..that Super Bowl indicator worked like dynamite for Earthstone, moving it up on 121 shares as the rest of the market went into a very depressing stage. Good job.
I've considered this a nice hedge to PCRX. I've bought both, thinking one will surge.
The boys at Alpha have been propelling small undervalued junk stocks one after another. Three of them that I have followed include PLNR, NVTL, and FPP. The price appreciation after the Alpha coverage was quite notable on PLNR and NVTL.
I bring this up because ESTE has a history of share price manipulation. I've suggested it has been downside manipulation over the last several months, and it's been on low volume. But looking over the last five years, there have been a couple of incredible share price pops on extremely high volume, with no news from the company. It's been happening to small caps on a rotating basis, and I would expect a move on ESTE sometime again, but I'm not suggesting any time frame.
I have updated the short interest, and as you can see, the shorts are totally out. Don't assume the minimal amount is insignificant. People who manipulate a share price are often involved in shorting.
If you're less suspicious than me, at least you have the raw data to look at.
Short interest update.
Settlement Dte Shares Short
Jan 15, 2014.......170
Dec 31, 2013...5,374
Dec 13, 2013...5,434
Nov 29, 2013....1.269
Nov 15, 2013:…..742
Oct 31, 2013:…1,108
Sept 30, 2013....7,498
Sept 13, 2013....2,167
Aug 30, 2013....1,610
Aug 15, 2013....1,932
July 31, 2013....1,611
July 15, 2012....1,432