Obviously CAT lied on their last earnings conference call. Something about everything looks good for this year while their rolling sales are down 15% every month and their largest dealer is losing money at a high rate of speed. They also missed reduced anticipated revs by $400 million. Should we even talk about the almost non-existent backlog?
Now, they are going to miss highly reduced revs by a billion this Q but again, everything will be fine this year. Of course, they will beat the now greatly reduced earnings estimates but in reality - make no money again because they don't have to count restructuring costs. Without the restructuring - they would be losing money by the dump truck load - but we all know financial engineering is all the rage nowadays.
Obviously, the dollar is losing steam and oil/commodities are doing better so CAT has ballooned. Also, don't fight the fed. CAT is sitting just under overbought conditions that it hit earlier this week. Valuation has now reached that of a growth stock with a 25% growth rate - all while losing sales and profits. Capex budgets have been slashed in their markets and yet everything will be fine - until it isn't. Nice announcement the day after the FED goes dovish - got to give them credit. "Our business sucks but it will all be fine." Rally on.
Can't short, can't go long. CAT will go where the market takes it. No confidence to take any position. Hope it keeps going up so when this manufactured run up ends, I can make some money on this thing again. Good luck everybody.
Just like CAT was a sell at $58 in Jan but it's a buy now in the $70s - on rolling sales declines of 15% a month over and over. Wait until those guys have to get honest about their reporting. Nothing but algos running that thing up on no volume. This thing too - time to retest 400, h&s in the chart - look out below unless the algos just run it right back up.