if we calculate the 90 days as including the three day settlement period, then it would appear the ninety days are up. so that would explain the 2 million+ shares traded today. the uptrend is broken, btw.
they've performed about the same. the difference is that rlgt has more runway ahead . . . rlgt can make/boost it's numbers with a new acquisition at $10M. at this point xpo will have to buy a $10B company to boost numbers. xpo is ordesr of magnitude more complex than rlgt, which means more can go wrong. so I'd say rlgt is a better bet but it doesn't have all of wall st. pushing it higher, and xpo does.
that was a joke. hey, nobody's ever accused me of being funny. anyway, wheels is the company radiant bought on april 3. radiant issued the selling shareholders 7 million shares, 3-4 millino of those agreed not to sell for 90 days. that agreement comes to an end in a few days. of course there are ways to sell without actually selling - the shareholders may have cut a deal with a bank to sell at x price adn the bank shorts in the market at x+25, locking in a 25c gain. maybe that explains some of the recent volume. anyway, the chart is healthier as llong as it stays under $8. there is no earnings report until late sept, so there is probably no news for another three months. that could be a long three months if all the transaction news is already priced into the stock.
wheels shareholders is canadian for "carpetbaggers." the "90 days" refers to my astrological market timing system, it's kind of like the gann system except incorporating the motions of mercury in retrograde. look for pig and aries to come down the pike in the month of the tiger.
btw the co didn't mention that sba was the same business that radiant took the philly station from. so basically steal a large agent station, then buy the firm for less than market value. ha! brilliant move crain. and also what none of the analysts mention is that rlgt is building a national ltl network. combine all the clipper brokerage revenues and the otexp plus h&s and you get closer to a national ltl network. good negotiating leverage with the other airport linehaul network, forward air.
It's being valued at less than 12x on ebitda but that's what mature companies are trading atfor. it really should be trading at a higher multiple. it's true that radiant often disappoints on earnings. but it also surprises on agent on boardings and acquisitions. radiant with all the agent conversions in the hopper ready to go is like a half-rented apartment building. it's not at all hard to get this to $60 ebitda.
so so stupid to downgrade the stock here. this is the sweet spot in the margin curve and multiple curve. crain has been building up to this moment for years. this is where all the groundwork laid up in the last few years pays off. not the point to downgrade
crain says no margin expasion with new wheels deal. but the whole point of the deal was to get the $170M of Clipper wheels capacity on the Radiant line haul network and drive down the transportation cost. that's the point. so it's disingenuous to say that margin expansion/cost reductions aren't a part of the deal. Crain just doesn't want to answer the inevitable "so how are the cost reductions going" questions plus he needs a cookie jar for future deals. crain is already on the record saying that most of the gross margin of any acquired truck broker would fall to the bottom line that was the whole point of acquiring a truck broker and a LTL network. the whole point.
NMIH was a once in a generation thing. they have to make money the old fashioned way, ripping off clients.
it makes no sense to look at liquidation value because it won't be liquidating. the dta is fine there will be cap gains. so other than good will book is solid. look at what ISI went for FBR still has a decent franchise and would be valuable to cowen or piper jaffray once all the tax assets are burned off. i think this could go for $35 - $40 in a sale. I realize that Hendricks would be putting himself out of a good job but he has stock options too.
it went up on no volume. the stock seems stuck in a limbo between former growth stock and potential growth stock and people are kind of unsure what to make of it.
yeah looks good. I honestly don't know much about the company but I liked the way buyers soaked up all the shares after earnings and now I've got my fingers crossed and a tight stop
cowen generated $56m of incentive fees/investment gains. at the same time, very little of those fees/gains were captured as profits. Company posted just $18M of earnings. so what happened? is this going to happen every time there are trading gains? it seems like the incremental expenses on trading gains/fees is about 70%.
I'm not short but thanks for the advice. Maybe I am wrong . . . certainly wrong today. But this was an A+ quarter and still only made 18c or whatever it was. Don't think the buyers realize the extent that Cohen&Co are paying themselves first.