China not only stabilized, but rallied hard. Europe rose nicely. US futures say a good start today. VXX has to go lower. How quickly this drops is anyone's guess.
Short miners one of the most overcrowded trade lately. Gold miners got lumped together with other miners (iron, copper, etc) The China syndrome has hurt all miners because of the drop in industrial metals as commodities. Yet gold has risen. I look for a pretty fast reversal in GDX once China fears subside a bit.
I believe the US should acquire as much physical gold as possible. As long as the $ is strong.
Having gold as a reserve will allow the $ to remain strong in the future, even when it shouldn't be.
Other currencies might even fail. The Chinese may be better capitalists then we think.
Really? Net INCOME?
Things may be better than many expect. POG rising as currencies compete for lower value.
Per my calculations, the shareprice of NUGT would then be around $40.
A lot depends in how quickly GDX would rise to $54.
All hypothetical, of course.
Ideally, I would prefer to see a slow and steady rise in POG and the miners. These quick and erratic moves make my stomach uneasy.
What we are seeing is a rout of all who had over-margined their positions. Someone is taking great pains to short the shares down to create as much pain as possible for those forced to sell. (could it be Goldman?)
Volumes have been elevated, but will subside when the forced sells are done. Afterwards I expect POG to follow its more normal patterns. A weaker dollar meant nothing today. The shorts rule, temporarily. One of the tools I have learned to use is the FNRA Daily SHO site, which on a daily basis tells how many short sales out of total volume occurred. Yesterday, short sales accounted for about 50% of all trades. I expect today will be similar. (the numbers are released after 5:30 PM)
There is always bigger money. They can stop this manipulation game in an instant. When they choose to.
Stockpile gold as long as the dollar is strong. Wealthy Americans and other individuals rich in dollars should do likewise. jmo
You can't print gold.
The dollars, of which way too many have been printed, are valuable, but pnly in relation to other currencies.
More can be printed, as well as every other currency.
The Fed may raise rates 25 basis points and then stop for quite a long time.
They may not raise rates at all, if they are honest about how weak the economy really is.
Although volatily in equities is currently very low, any major conflict or financial worry could and will eventually erupt. Think the Middle East is stable?
Would anyone want to own wealth in Greek Drachmas or any paper currency if there was a worldwide conflict?.
When the really big money sees the opportunity in gold and gold miners, count on them to wipe out the smaller and midsize players who remain short. Thats what they do.
I dont pretend to know the immediate or longterm future of the world, the economy, or the POG.
But I am willing to put my money where the probabilities say I should.
Follow your own concisence. Dont listen to me.
I am not giving buy or sell advice. Just my opinion of my perspective.
The POG will snap back when the $ weakens. Look for a washout of the weak followed by a nice bounceback.
It may have just bottomed.
Watching and waiting, and buying here.