I only found this:
Matthew Vittorioso - Barclays
And can you comment at all on what you think that Leer quality coal with netback to you guys at the mine in today's market ?
Paul Lang - EVP and COO
What we found is this is a little bit better quality, it's been one of the pleasant surprises at Leer , the quality is coming better than we thought. It's had good reception with all the customers as John indicated. The quality of this coal right now if I were to call it probably is in the mid-90s.
I am not 100% sure about that ... so take it with grain of salt (you can check that, btw). In Q3 Conf Call, ACI was asked about cost and pricing of Leer coal and they gave $65 for costs and $95 for price "in $152 benchmark environment". That was probably in Q&A section at the end of the conf call, so it will be easy to find.
Inventories at the end of October are 153.3 mill tons.
They also lowered previously reported end-of-September inventories from 153 mill tons to 152.18 mill tons.
Interesting that PRB inventory fell again in October (by 700 thousand tons) and non-PRB inventory went up. During the course of 2013, PRB inventories fell 9 out of 10 months (May was the exception).
Given production numbers published by EIA (and railroads) for November, and consumption number (measured by thermometer), it looks like inventories will be below 150 mill tons and the end of the year! This means in 2013 there was 35 mill of underproduction compared to demand ... at some point utilities will pay to produce that tonnage.
This means Leer is going to bring just $26 cash margins/ton
Over the past two days, news emerged of Australian exporter Anglo American’s settlement of 1Q14 benchmark hard coking coal contracts with customers at $143/tonne for premium coal qualities, down from the 4Q13 contract price of $152/tonne
Between now and Jan 10th 2014, Powerburn is predicting withdrawal of another 63 bcf more that 5 year average. If those estimations come true, then we will have lowest NG inventory level in 5 years by mid January. That does tell me that the price can easily reach $5+ level. Who would have thought that we will see NG at $5 this winter? I didn't.
On the other hand, given how NG futures look like, the market predicting more supply coming online in response to the current pricing and later prices will fall.
Can you give more details on how they did not screw shareholders?
How much shareholders got and when?
Now that you are trained by past ACI stock performance, you will sell at $4.70, won't you.
And you know what, it may fell right after that and make you sale a correct move!
First about quote: "Obviously the president could only do so much in that situation."
It did not stop him from saying that we will have 1 million vehicles. I can say I will jump up 5 meters high in 2 months and then after failing to achieve that blame it on gravity: only so much I could have done. In any case, this is not that important: all politicians do that, what is important is that smart people should just ignore that and rest assured that the majority will vote for promises that won't come true, promises from both republicans and democrats.
"The comparison to the EV forecast and the forecast to install more solar on federal building are two different things."
I did say almost exactly that. While the government failed with electric vehicles, they can succeed with improving federal buildings. My words: "Good thing that renewable energy use in Federal Buildings falls into "spending" category ... so that may happen!". Pretty much what you said ... if I understood you point correctly.
I personally want to see the government spend as little as possible on government. If we let them, they will buy Tesla for every employees! Hell, it is good for the environment! Oh, it also create jobs! Boom!, public is sold on those arguments.
Bottom line: You cannot trust a person or government to spend money he/she did not earn.
And the US President target for electric vehicles was "1 million sold before 2015".
Do you believe it will happen? I hope we will have have at least 150 thousand cars by 2015. I hope you did not cite that promise as a prove of something.
Government can do well two things:
2. Spend (almost wrote Waste) money
Good thing that renewable energy use in Federal Buildings falls into "spending" category ... so that may happen!
Producing/Delivering ... is different, obamacare.gov is a good example (other than 1 mill cars on the road ... but hey ... they still have 1 year to sell 900 thousand vehicle).
Why didn't you wait just 10 days to move profits into 2014?
You are strange! You predict stock price all the time! Just on Friday you made two predictions. You predicted $4 on Friday and under $4 next week. Just look at your previous posts. And if not, will you give yourself money to make up for your loss :)
If it dropped in California from $10.3 to $5.6 during 6.5 years, I do not think that it will drop from $5.6 to $1.5 in the next 6 years (by 2020), especially considering that non-panel costs dropped less than 20% in the past 6 year (according to you, in the drop from $10.3 to $5.6, cost of panels contributed to $4.3 drop, and non-panel costs dropped from $6 to $4.9 or less than 20%). Further reduction in price of panels has diminishing returns (actually there was something about that on last SPWR conference call and I though at that time they were full of it ... maybe not). Also, maybe the reason why US soft costs are 3 times higher than in Germany is inefficiencies of US government subsidies (I guess government spends money smarted in Germany)? If it can be done for 1/3 of the costs, market forces would have made it for 1/3 of the costs.
"It is not a question of if, but when"
No arguing here.
Actually, I am surprised that solar prices fell that slow! And it may be due to government intervention!
From California's "gosolarcalifornia":
Q1 2007: $10.36/Watt
Q2 2013: $5.67/Watt
Basically, in 6+ years prices fell less than 2 times. Meanwhile other technologies, like above-mentioned SSDs or even HDDs (not supported by gov, btw) prices fell maybe 10+ times. I understand the difference between SSD & Solar Panel, but I bet most people think that solar prices fall faster that 2 times in 7 years. PRB coal fell in price 2 times in 7 months in 2011-2012 :)
Btw, do you have solar panels on your house?
China, India, Japan, Germany do not need UN money for building power plants. I assume you wrote this in response to some news recently World Bank or some other organization like that, stopped financing Coal Power Plants? Those are political stunts, people are making careers, getting elected ... usual stuff.