Looking at the company's December presentation I see from slide 12 that they have 90 -100% of their natural gas production hedged in 2015 and 2016. Oil is hedged 60 - 70% in 2015 and 50 - 60% in 2016. Doesn't sound like a company that is going to go bust in the next week or two like many are claiming. The worst part of all this hedging is that they miss a run up in natural gas if the weather gets cold in January as is now being predicted.
WLL debt just got a nice ratings increase. At less than $24 a barrel I would say the KOG deal looks pretty darn good. The fact that the bond market, not the stock guys, like the deal means a lot more than someone who may simply be short the stock. So argue with the bond people that just uprated WLL bonds based on the KOG deal. People trading stock know very little about a long term investment but the organizations that buy bonds are in the habit of getting their principal and interest.
At less than $24 a barrel I would say the KOG deal looks pretty darn good. The fact that the bond market, not the stock guys, like the deal means a lot more than someone who may simply be short the stock. So argue with the bond people that just uprated WLL bonds based on the KOG deal.
At least one analyst this morning on CNBC said he thought oil was near a bottom and that he saw hedge funds starting to go long the sector. He also said that OPEC will likely cut within the week to 6 months. As I have always said, the professional money will be back in before they the bell. From what I saw WLL actually beat on EPS as well as revenues according to some reports where the estimate was 14 cents.
At 68 years old I don't think Roth is too worried about the stock going lower. Usually people in that age bracket are buying municipals so he probably feels the company is on the right footing.
Instead of wasting time on idiotic message boards, go to the Triangle October '14 presentation and check out slide 15 to get an idea of the company's hedges through FY-2016. If Pickens is right and oil rebounds to $100 in 12 to 18 months I don't think the company is going out of business. These boards are a waste of time. Then see what the company has to say tomorrow.
T Boone Pickens expects oil to be back to $100 within 12 to 18 months and probably closer to 12 months. I don't know if that will happen, but what are your credentials compared to Pickens?
Your post makes no sense. If WLL does not survive the next 2-3 years, as you state, how do you expect to buy back at 40?
Looking at the slides in the October 2014 company presentation it appears that TPLM has a fairly good hedge position. 6000 bopd are hedged through FY 2016 versus 2015 production of about 11,000 bopd if I am reading that correctly. I don't see them going bankrupt as so many alarmists are predicting for many of the shale E&Ps. They said the same thing about the natural gas E&Ps and very few that I am aware of did not survive sub 2 dollar gas and are now selling natural gas for over 4 bucks.
I guess free fall has been delayed at least for today. I really only see two insiders selling and two insiders that seem to be accumulating over time. Institutional ownership has also risen. Stock will probably flounder for a while but with energy prices low it is possible that a lot of the telecoms will have a few extra pennies for CAPEX. My former company (retired this year) is rolling out a fiber rich test project which could result in a much larger build. The company is heavy with CLFD components and the field and engineering folks are more than happy with the products. Before I retired we looked around the country and it is clear that the 1GIG community is going to be a reality and that means a hell of a lot more fiber than is currently out there. Like so many small companies CLFD could rocket up or down with a seemingly minor announcement by one of their big customers. Probably more likely to hear of large build out at this stage as the US plays catch up with fiber to the premise projects.
Bankruptcy ain't happening, but the stock has been a dog term dog. Eli needs to be canned and the company should have been sold, or at least an attempt at a sale should have been made.
I doubt the buy won't happen. I just hope they make the most of it and buy at the bottom, but as we know that is easier said than done...
The problem with dividends is that small companies pay out a few measly percentages of a percent, and when they inevitably have to cut the dividend down the road the stock gets hammered. If the stock drops below 10 bucks than they will have a chance to retire a large amount of stock and this will help the PE for a lot longer than a 0.1% dividend that is always in jeopardy. So if the stock does sell off in December I would look for the company to take advantage of the gift and really reduce the outstanding shares by a impactful amount. At some point CLFD is going to be the beneficiary of significant broadband build out and the stock will rise as fast or faster as it fell. Prior to any big moves by Google and others we might even see a play for the company.
The more I read the worse the quarter looks when compared to the lone estimate. I hope some of those 30 ;products in the pipeline are barn burners...
Clearly the stock is down due to comments by the CEO regarding the likelihood that revenues will not shoot skyward in the beginning of 2015. Also, the most recent quarter didn't compare too well with the YoY fourth quarter, but it seems that the company believes broadband expansion in the USA will soon accelerate and CLFD is in a good position to take advantage of the growth. Probably smart to add on the dips over the coming months if you have an outlook longer than 6-months.