The Cantor opinion you reference was issued on Aug. 1, 2013. What you saw today was a roundup of previous - and in many cases old - recommendations by Cantor. From Seeking Alpha on Aug. 7, 2013: "On Thursday August 1st, Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald issued a target price of $24 a share with a "sell" recommendation as they see the potential downside of the stock could drop 40.77% from its July 31st close."
Since that opinion by Cantor, the stock has advanced from $40.52 on July 31 to around $51, a gain of more than 25 percent.
I couldn't care less about short-term ups and downs, but I will say that the trading in SGEN today (and over the last few days) has been particularly strange. It feels like some entity is accumulating, imo.
Well, let's put it this way: A lot of my net worth, probably too much, is concentrated in SGEN, CGEN and CLDX.
I didn’t hear any news, but also never was heard a discouraging word.
The prime takeaway: Many catalysts are coming during the rest of this year in the form of trial results involving Adcetris and other ADCs produced by SGEN and its partners. Look for these results during ASCO and ASH and at other, less predictable times.
“It’s going to be a very strong year for Seattle Genetics,” Siegel told the investors, repeatedly using the terms “exciting results” and “we’re very excited.”
The replay is available now through the link on SGEN's investor page.
Wow. Tough crowd to please. High volume, low volume, whatever. Stock is up 42 percent since Jan. 6. I'll settle for that at this point.
Actually, you're on the right track. This guy moves around about as frequently as a goat shepard. Based on his skill analyzing SGEN's science, I'm sure I'd be thrilled having him work on developing new drugs for my company.
NEW YORK, Jan. 7, 2014 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Cortice Biosciences, a biotechnology company developing novel agents for the treatment of oncologic and neurologic indications, announced today the appointment of George Farmer, Ph.D. as Chief Executive Officer.
Dr. Farmer brings more than 20 years of industry, financial, and academic experience to Cortice. Most recently, he served as Vice President, Corporate Development at Synta Pharmaceuticals, a company developing novel treatments for cancer. As a Senior Biotechnology Analyst with Canaccord Genuity, Wachovia Securities, and Fortis Bank, Dr. Farmer covered a wide range of companies developing and commercializing drugs for many therapeutic indications. He also served as a Senior Scientist at DuPont Pharmaceuticals Company and completed post-doctoral fellowships at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center and University of California San Francisco investigating molecular mechanisms of cancer progression. Dr. Farmer received his Ph.D. in Biological Sciences from Columbia University and a B.A. from Dartmouth College….
Needham analyst, Chad Messer says the company's platform and ADCETRIS could turn SGEN into "the next large cap drug company."
Messer wrote in a research note, "Seattle Genetics is developing antibody drug conjugates (ADCs) to fight cancer. The company's technology platform has been validated by a plethora of clinical data, numerous partnerships, and one successful drug approval and launch. Sales of flagship lymphoma drug, Adcetris, have been modest so far at $145 million in 2013. However, we believe Adcetris has much greater potential and forecast $2 billion in worldwide sales by 2020. More importantly, we believe that Seattle Genetic's leadership with ADC technology make it one a small number of mid-cap biotech companies with the ability to generate long term growth sufficient to become a sustainable large cap drug company."
Yeah, some shorts are moving back in. Que sera sera. Here's a recent tweet from one genius: Beat Bartlome @3xKona 2m $SGEN Took a short position here. Admittedly risky in this strength, so not for the weak of heart.
With 1 million shares traded within the first 30 minutes and the stock easily breaking $50 for the first time, I think it is safe to say that a short squeeze has been underway this morning.
scr2002, as an SGEN investor since around 2007, I certainly understand your impatience insofar as I've also fallen victim to it from time to time. But, at the same time, I know this: Every thing that Siegall and his team have promised would happen over the years has, indeed, happened. Consequently, my considerable holding of SGEN shares has increased in value by more than 500 percent.
You might want to keep in mind that, in many ways, this is a company still deep within the research and development phase. Thus, research costs and losses may widen for a bit longer. But, if Siegall says he intends to grow this into a company with a market cap two, three or even four times its current size, I'm willing, based on his success thus far, to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Also, note that the Baker brothers remain firm holders and now the Vanguards of the world are taking positions in SGEN not at the prices that you and I did, but at these current, much higher prices. I don't know about you, but I'm pretty sure that the Bakers and the other big institutions are smarter than I am about these things. So, if they're happy and hopeful, I am, too.
- Managers are beginning to see Adcetris use in retreatment environments.
- Adcetris sales in Canada are being suppressed by problems of arranging insurance coverage there, but progress is being made in getting insurance reimbursements.
- Responding to a question about those odd reports regarding pancreatitis and Adcetris, Siegall said: “We have said that pancreatitis is a relatively rare occurrence and, at this point, we have no updates.”
- Responding to a question about rising R&D costs, Siegall said: "The time is right now to invest in trying to find new drugs with our exciting technology…. Our goal is to build a very strong company with a $10 billion, $15 billion, $20 billion market cap, and that requires investment."
- There was a good deal of optimistic talk about SGN-19A, but it got away from me, as did some other information.
As always, you are advised to listen to the replay.
Here are some highlights of today's post-earnings conference call:
- Company officials noted that the company’s cash reserve is $10 million higher than it was a year ago.
- They said that anecdotal evidence and market research shows continued off-label and not-marketed Adcetris uses by physicians.
- Regarding confusion over 2014 revenue guidance (another poorly written passage in another press release), some factors that contributed to 2013 revenue are essentially over, which would diminish comparable 2014 revenue. But 2014 guidance for Adcetris sales was raised and the company is not currently providing guidance for 2014 collaborations and royalties, so…we’re on our own. However, Siegall seemed to suggest that the guidance is conservative and the results would be good: “We have tried to be historically careful with our sales guidance,” he said.
- I think I heard a reference to some additional cash burn this year, which would reduce cash reserves by the end of 2014.
- The company is continuing to work with physicians to make sure that patients get full Adcetris treatment regimens. Some are recovering so quickly that the treatment is abbreviated, potentially putting them at long-term risk of relapse (and suppressing sales to some extent.)
- Managers are beginning to see Adcetris use in retreatment environments.
Seems pretty good. Listening to the call now. Analysts on Twitter are talking about the company raising revenue estimates, but the press release seems ambivalent to me. It raises revenue guidance for Adcetris sales, but seems unclear about total 2014 revenue.
Upcoming 2014 Milestones
Report ADCETRIS phase 3 AETHERA clinical trial data in the second half of 2014.
Present data from a phase 1/2 clinical trial of ADCETRIS in combination with bendamustine in second-line HL on February 26, 2014 at the 2014 Bone Marrow Transplant (BMT) Tandem Meetings being held in Dallas, TX.
Present additional clinical data from ADCETRIS, including phase 2 clinical trials in DLBCL and in frontline HL patients age 60 and above.
Present data from phase 1 trials of SGN-CD19A in non-Hodgkin lymphoma and ALL.
Present data from a phase 1 trial of SGN-CD33A in acute myeloid leukemia (AML).
Initiate a phase 1 trial of SGN-CD70A in CD70-positive malignancies in the second half of 2014.
2014 Financial Outlook
Seattle Genetics anticipates that 2014 revenues from ADCETRIS net product sales will be in the range of $155 million to $165 million and that 2014 revenues from collaboration and license agreements will be in the range of $55 million to $65 million. Collaboration revenues in 2013 included approximately $40 million related to new ADC collaborations and the impact of ADCETRIS drug supplied to Takeda. Similar items are not included in the company’s guidance for 2014. Collaboration revenues will be generated from fees, milestones and reimbursements earned through the company’s ADCETRIS and ADC collaborations.
Research and development expenses are expected to be in the range of $245 million to $265 million. Selling, general and administration expenses are expected to be in the range of $100 million to $110 million. Operating expenses will be directed primarily towards commercialization and clinical trials of ADCETRIS, and development and clinical activities for SGN-CD19A, SGN-CD33A, SGN-LIV1A, ASG-22ME, ASG-15ME and SGN-CD70A. Cost of sales is expected to be in the range of 10 percent to 12 percent of ADCETRIS net product sales for the year in 2014. Non-cash costs are expected to be approximately $50 million in 2014, primarily attributable to share-based compensation.
Total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2013 were $67.4 million, compared to $63.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2012. Revenues for the year ended December 31, 2013 were $269.3 million, compared to $210.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2012. Revenues in 2013 included ADCETRIS net product sales of $38.5 million in the fourth quarter and $144.7 million for the year. Revenues in 2013 also included ADCETRIS royalty revenues of $6.6 million for the fourth quarter and $17.8 million for the year from international sales of ADCETRIS by Takeda. In addition, revenues reflect amounts earned under the company’s ADCETRIS and ADC collaborations totaling $22.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2013 and $106.8 million for the year in 2013. Collaboration revenues increased in 2013 driven by the company’s ADCETRIS collaboration with Takeda as well as its ADC collaborations, including a new agreement with Bayer and an expanded agreement with AbbVie.
Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2013 was $15.7 million, or $0.13 per share, compared to a net loss of $10.6 million, or $0.09 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2012. For the year ended December 31, 2013, net loss was $62.5 million, or $0.51 per share, compared to a net loss of $53.8 million, or $0.46 per share, for the year ended December 31, 2012.
As of December 31, 2013, Seattle Genetics had $374.3 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments, compared to $364.3 million as of December 31, 2012.
That would be pretty odd. More likely the usual pre-earnings (4 p.m. today) run up, hopefully not followed by the usual post-earnings decline. Some analysts apparently are expecting actual 4Q net income. Also, note the continuing series of reports showing new and/or increased institutional interest.
Kool, ricky/maui is ricky/maui and, absent serious medical treatment, he's never going to change. Trust me when I say that I never was under the illusion that his ramblings - or anything posted on any Yahoo board - affect the share price. Every now and then, I think it's valuable to let him know that we're onto him and his latest alias, but you're right - it probably was a mistake to poke the bear. This board has been too valuable, too intelligent and helpful, to allow it to descend into a typical Yahooligan message board, and I'll try not to contribute to such a decline in the future. As a deeply committed SGEN long who conducts ongoing research and due diligence, I have no serious doubt about the long-term upward trajectory of this company and this investment, and I'm not in the least concerned about the recent ying-yang trend in the share price.
Yes, RIcky. You always tell us about your brilliant buys and sells, long after the fact. I wish you well, too. In the sense of, I truly hope you get well.