I don't think logic or, most of the time, news plays a role in these things. And I don't think guessing about a reason generally is productive with this stock. (I see nothing in the twittersphere to suggest even a hint of an FDA issue with 33). SGEN gets played a lot. It goes up; it goes down. It usually waits a day or two to respond to good news (Bakers, new trial). Ying and yang.
Hmmm. When one clicks on scr20022000's name and sees his relentlessly depressive, negative posts on other message boards - and the many thumbs downs they accumulate - one becomes a little suspicious of his alias.
Stepping back a bit, two thoughts: 1. Beginning this last buy of 329,358 shares a few hours after Goldman Sachs, obviously with an agenda, commissioned a hit job on SGEN, Baker clearly was giving Goldman and its "objective" analyst a raised middle finger. 2. Maintaining their position in SGEN is one thing. Increasing it modestly from time to time is another thing. But for the Bakers, board members privy to all sorts of inside information, to so constantly and massively increase their stake - now standing at 26.8 percent - is really quite something else. Conclusion: This is as close to a sure thing, imo, as one can get in biotech.
I generally don't adhere to conspiracy theories, but let's say that the GS hit was intended to help hedgies and other shorts get out, especially with ASH on the horizon. Though SGEN often takes a day or three to react to news, the hit certainly didn't work today. So, if the Hail Mary GS hit fails so thoroughly, does that suggest that hedgies and other shorts will have little choice now but to throw in the towel and start covering, fueling another rise?
I've seen fairly complete versions of what the guy wrote. In addition to underestimating Adcetris' potential, he disregards SGEN's pipeline and completely ignores SGEN's many shots on goal with its partners. He also ignores the Bakers' enduring confidence symbolized by their growing stake in the company and he completely ignores SGEN's status as a likely eventual buyout target. It's a complete hit job and, at the moment, it doesn't appear to be working very well. Some of the people really should be in jail.
Paladin, Kool: Agreed. I'll go with the Bakers every time. One other thing: Apparently GS has a new analyst - his report initiated coverage of seven biotechs today. All were given buys (he predicted that BLUE would more than double!) or neutrals, except SGEN. It's possible that, to establish what his firm views as "credibility," he had to put a sell on something and SGEN drew the short straw.
You really have to wonder what they're thinking, what they're up to, and how deep their research was - or wasn't. From a Seeking Alpha summary of the Goldman Sachs report:
- Price target: $33 (implied downside 27%).Firm says Adcetris upside through label expansion is already baked into the stock. Says SGEN's pipeline outlook is unclear.
- Among 15 analysts, Goldman is the only firm with a Sell rating on SGEN. Street low, prior to Goldman's initiation, was $40.50 (Cowen's Dr. Boris Peaker).
- On Oct. 30, Needham ($60 price target) said it expects continued growth from Adcetris as it penetrates this market and expands its label further in the coming years, and noted SGEN is making progress with proprietary pipeline of antibody drug conjugates (ADCs). "We look for significant updates on these and other programs at ASH in December. We continue to view SGEN as one of the few mid-cap biotech companies with the ability to grow into a sustainable large cap drug developer."
fstout/ricky/quadhole/quadholes/mauihope/etc: Briefly taking you off ignore to make clear that 1. My sells and repurchases were rare. 2. I never bashed your or anyone else for selling. 3. I frequently bashed you for being an absolute, total moron and a multi-aliased troll.
Likewise. Patience is not my strong suit, and it's been nearly a decade. That said, factoring in some sells and re-purchases, I'm up about 500 percent on a significant number of shares, which I still have, and that's tough to beat.
Bull, it certainly is a little frustrating, on a day-to-day basis. But the very fact that the Bakers - again, the most inside of insiders and also some of the most savvy biotech investors in the world - continue to grow and fortify their position in SGEN more than offsets that frustration for me. They remain my canaries in this coal mine: If they're still happily energetic in this space, I am, too.
From what I can see, biotech in general and SGEN in particular are more suceptible to Wall Street shenanigans than most other investments. You can see the ying-yang and string-pulling several times a week - up for no perceptible reason, down for no perceptible reason. Just a lot of trading activity that generates commissions and nothing much else.
As to this week's events, we've seen this before right after the Bakers make a large buy. Repeating my theory on that: Some of the trading interest surrounding SGEN is based on it being an obvious takeover candidate (now, later, eventually, whenever). The Bakers are on the board and are core insiders. Insiders are not allowed to trade if they hold key information not available to the general public. Hence, a major buy by the Bakers suggests that no takeover offer currently is on the SGEN table or is under consideration. So, shorts and potential sellers are relieved (for a little while) of the worry that a high-premium takeover will slap them upside the head. And they trade accordingly.
Well, bullsrunsoon was right. Felix Baker has purchased another 1 million share or so since Friday, all at market prices from $41 to $44. Those Bakers are some seriously confident SGEN investors.
FWIW, after a lengthy examination of Amgen's situation and need for an acquisition, these are the two paragraphs that most directly touch on SGEN, which is the first potential target mentioned by the writer:
"As the once number-one biotech firm undergoes tough times, Amgen’s M&A plan may help save plundering sales with new potential blockbusters. The company operates in several therapeutic areas including bone health, cardiovascular, hematology/oncology, inflammation, metabolic disorders, nephrology, and neuroscience. However, since Amgen is mostly losing its cancer products to patent expiries, the company might be interested in beefing up that pipeline.
"Among cancer-based potential acquisition targets is Seattle Genetics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SGEN). The over $6 billion biotech has one approved product Adcetris, an anti-CD30 monoclonal antibody cleared for two lymphoma types, and being studied in over 30 ongoing clinical trials for various more lymphomas. The company has six more clinical-stage antibody-drug conjugates (ADC) like Adcetris that utilize Seattle’s sugar-engineered antibody (SEA) technology/".
Pretty high volume and a close within 16 cents of the high of the day. I'd be surprised if the Bakers are buying here, but...who knows?
Not to beat a dead horse (and the press release that was issued post-market yesterday certainly is a dead horse due to the foolish timing of its release), but as of this moment, 19 hours later, the press release has produced exactly zero news stories and exactly zero tweets from biotech watchers. And it certainly has not helped the stock. Remember: The entire objective of a press release is to favorably influence...the press. Had it been issued before the market opened today, it might have done so. This is another in a long series of ineffective moves by the company's media and investor relations departments. Seattle Genetics is hitting on all cylinders except in those departments - and, don't fool yourself, a strong public and media image is crucial to the success of any company, particularly a biotech.
Maybe, but this is my field and, believe me, media-wise they issued that press release at the worst time - as deadlines were closing and most writers who might have cared already had their stories for the day. If they wanted to release it outside market hours, tomorrow morning pre-market would have been a lot more strategic and made a lot more sense.
There's probably a good reason why SGEN waited until the market closed before releasing its comprehensive, probably-good-for-the-stock ASH presentation press release and presentation schedule just now but...I can't think of one.
There also was a good bit of upbeat chatter about this, which eventually could be the Big One: Report interim phase 1 clinical data from SGN-LIV1A, an ADC targeted to LIV-1 in development for metastatic breast cancer, at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium being held December 8-12, 2015 in San Antonio, TX.