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Cedar Fair, L.P. Message Board

reeshau 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 22, 2016 12:34 PM Member since: Oct 22, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Disappointing.

    by zjdc Jun 17, 2016 5:09 PM
    reeshau reeshau Jun 22, 2016 12:34 PM Flag

    Very well put. There is certainly a divergence in the performance of the stock vs. the performance of the company, which is an opportunity for fundamental investors.

    I would add the relative youth of the company as a current issue, which will eventually fade. It is just passing 5 years old, and many institutional investors have bylaws against companies younger than that. More importantly, AL's credit rating, which (barely) investment grade, will also improve steadily as the company grows and continues its excellent track record. Those factors, as well as eventual dividend increases as growth mitigates, will attract large investors.

    In the medium term, I am looking at the sell rate for 2019 and 2020 deliveries. The good news is that deliveries are finally increasing beyond the 30's, and at a rate that can actually increase revenue growth. But with 2019's 59 orders (currently) and 2020's 77, we need to watch and make sure those turn into leases. If Air Lease can deliver on those with improving operating metrics, that will be a very good sign. Air Lease has somewhat put themselves in this position, by extending their working window from 18-24 months to 18-36. It's nice, if they can keep it up.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Am I missing something??

    by jwhoupt May 12, 2016 10:28 AM
    reeshau reeshau May 12, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    Also, don't forget that AL is just now passing 5 years as a public company. (April 19, actually) If you know the industry, you know it does not matter. But if you are just screening for ideas, or if you have bylaws that limit investment in young companies, then AL may not make your radar. Passing these checklist milestones should also broaden interest.

  • Reply to

    Reversing My Short

    by caoyoshikawa Apr 22, 2016 11:23 AM
    reeshau reeshau May 9, 2016 10:49 AM Flag

    Private jet leases? While I wouldn't say no, I doubt these would be large for AL. They just sold their ATR fleet; I doubt they will add a new, small jet type typical of private jets--they are not liquid enough. So, you would have to judge the size of the market for private 737's, A320, or larger. Which is very small.

    Right sentiment, wrong reason. I would much rather buy AL for the reasons management has already said: moving into new model types (A350, A320 NEO, 777X), opportunities to buy slots from ailing South American and Russian airlines, and incremental demand as global passenger growth continues to be robust. (forecast at 7% this year)

FUN
56.95-0.12(-0.21%)Jun 28 4:02 PMEDT