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Panera Bread Company Message Board

reeshau 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 15, 2014 10:00 AM Member since: Oct 22, 2004
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  • reeshau reeshau Jul 15, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Actually, chicken is and will be quite the bargain compared to beef, for some time to come, mThis is because the beef herd is the lowest it has been since the 1950's. That will not be fixed overnight. (Need to end drought in th West, first) That sounds like big trouble for burger joints, first and foremost.

  • Reply to

    lots of debt, and to much selling

    by eviegarcia0815 Jun 16, 2014 10:30 AM
    reeshau reeshau Jun 17, 2014 8:06 AM Flag

    This is a financial company; of course it has a lot of debt. That's what they do. It has a *much* higher current ratio than Allstate, Prudential, or MetLife. (I won't bother comparing it to big banks, although it kicks their butt too) That means that it has revenue coming in to more than cover its debt service. Equity is small because the company is young; it will build.

    Unlike so many young businesses, AL deals in transactions that have 6-10 year lives. Where else will you find that kind of certainty? With industry veterans running it, this one is as much set-it-and-forget-it as I have come across in a long while.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Am I missing something?

    by joeyatoz1 Jun 13, 2014 2:57 PM
    reeshau reeshau Jun 17, 2014 7:52 AM Flag

    What in the world does that mish-mash of bullet points have to do with each other? You really think a $600M stock buyback program will *reduce* the share price!?! Yeah, because the last one sure did...

  • reeshau by reeshau Jun 13, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Scene: June 11, 2014. Two young traders on a beach in the Cayman Islands. Despite the beatiful scenery and perfect weather, they are focused on their laptops watching the market.

    Bill: "Dude, I bet you $1,000,000 of my clients' money that I can drive AL from $41 to under $37 in less than 2 days."

    Jim: "No way! This thing has just gone up and up. Steve hazy's running it, they have lower interest rates than their huge competitors, and they have a triple catalyst of increasing air traffic, fleet refreshes with new model types, and an overall increase in leasing vs. buying. You're on!"

    Bill: "Watch this!"

    Scene: fade to the same setting, two days later, at 10:00 am...

    Bill: Hands thrown up in triumph; "Done!"

    Jim: "That was just awesome. Who knew the market was so gullible? Well, here's a mil from my clients. What are you going to do with it?"

    Bill: "Hmm....I think I'll pick up some AL, since it's so cheap now!"

    Amazing change of direction, again on no news. Somebody must have hit some kind of target. It doesn't seem like there is enough options action to explain something like this.

  • Reply to

    Another thought.

    by dlphcoracl Jun 13, 2014 6:37 AM
    reeshau reeshau Jun 13, 2014 8:04 AM Flag

    Lufthansa did spoil the party for a lot of airline stocks yesterday. Don't know why Yahoo News wouldn't put that in AL's news feed:


  • reeshau by reeshau Jun 12, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    It has been an interesting morning: down 5%+ on no news: a good opportunity to pick up some shares. The closest thing I can puzzle out is that this might be in reaction to the news of the cancellation of the Emirates order of 70 A350's. If so, there would be several flaws in that thesis:

    1) Airbus' CEO stated that Emirates is favoring the A380 over the A350, and this led to the cancellation. (Including current fleet and future orders, Emirates accounts for 75% of A380 orders)
    2) Emirates' orders were not to begin until 2019
    3) If I squint, I might wonder if somebody is worried of some flaw in the A350 that resulted in this cancellation. No such flaw has been reported.

    So, this order was direct with Airbus and does not affect Air Lease's orderbook. If anything, they now have an open chance to get more delivery slots, should they wish to.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Since then, the company has:
    Increased store count by 15%
    Increased sales by 31%
    Increased net income by 44%
    increased EPS by 50%

    Is the future outlook so grim?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • reeshau by reeshau Apr 30, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    I appreciate having 2 years to use my money elsewhere...last year was pretty fun. And now I am able to pick up right back where I left off.

    Panera seems generally to be the same. I am happy to buy on the dip, as they work out how to handle all that business! (what other retailers / restaurants have *that* as a problem) I was in one of my local stores yesterday, and got my first glimpse of an anti-mosh pit measure: a pick-up shelf right at the door. While I wonder about shrinkage from that convenience, I see that they are putting measures into place very quickly. Also, just as interestingly, there were orders on the shelf already--so customers are responding to online ordering. (and payment!)

    Sentiment: Buy

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