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Affymax, Inc. (AFFY) Message Board

regn727 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 17, 2013 9:58 PM Member since: Jan 16, 2013
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  • http://www.cnbc.com/id/30245189/Analyst_Eats_Dendreon_Crow

    1st bullish sign: 3-6 month chart
    2nd bullish sign: Insider transactions - never selling a single share, not diluting, exercising options
    3rd bullish sign : flash crash that has preceded positive catalysts (ARNA, DNDN, VVUS, AFFY, AVNR, HGSI, SRPT, etc)
    4th bullish sign: Brean/Aschoff repeat of DNDN $1 PT.

    Everything is on our favor. Hold on to your shares. Positive Catalyst coming. Partnerships, and 7 oncology indications.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Brean

    by clsn1000 Jan 17, 2013 9:16 PM
    regn727 regn727 Jan 17, 2013 9:23 PM Flag

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/30245189/Analyst_Eats_Dendreon_Crow

  • Reply to

    argoalpuche....

    by regn727 Jan 16, 2013 1:03 AM
    regn727 regn727 Jan 17, 2013 3:35 PM Flag

    CMG is not going below 200 anytime soon. As indicated by recent strength, 230-260 is as low as this is going. Disagree with you there, its already down 40% from all time highs. All they have to do is increasing prices by $0.25 and everything will be much better on margins.

    Argoal what PPS was REGN when you first got shares? Just curious how early in the game you got in.

    Those stocks you mentioned seem decent, maybe ZIOP has most potential there.

    OGXI: 188m mkt cap, 90m cash, Phase 2 Prostate cancer - (could see MDVN type move)
    GALE: 120m mkt cap, 40m cash, Phase 3 HER2 Breast cancer Immunity vaccine (ARNA Type move)
    CLDX: Nice portfolio of mAB
    LPTN: 53m mkt cap, 500 mil deal with pfizer. Phase 2 assets for WET AMD (mAB discovery platform)
    CLSN: 300m mkt cap, 23 mil cash, 7 oncology indications, Phase 3 liver cancer due soon.
    INO: 97m mkt cap, Hep C, Flu and many vaccines

    All these small caps listed above have major upside if their drugs work, are approved, and commercial success. Curious to hear your take a look at those. I am currently long GALE, CLSN. Thinking about opening a position in CLDX.

    CLDX looks like it will hit $10 by May or so. They may get their cancer treatment approved without the need for Phase 3.

    I think CLSN can go to $20-30 on impressive data. GALE has probably highest upside of any biotech stock out there. I don't know any other stock that can go from $1.70 to $20+ currently.

    SGEN is intriguing 3B mkt cap with ADC mAB technology. But I don't know how much more it can grow.

    Looking for the next AMGN, REGN, CELG, PCYC, while its in the single digits. They come around once every 10-20 years. I am still long REGN into the sunset, but would be nice to find the next one sometime soon :)

  • Reply to

    argoalpuche....

    by regn727 Jan 16, 2013 1:03 AM
    regn727 regn727 Jan 17, 2013 3:29 PM Flag

    CMG is not going below 200 anytime soon. As indicated by recent strength, 230-260 is as low as this is going. Disagree with you there, its already down 40% from all time highs. All they have to do is increasing prices by $0.25 and everything will be much better on margins.

    Argoal what PPS was REGN when you first got shares? Just curious how early in the game you got in.

    Those stocks you mentioned seem decent, maybe ZIOP has most potential there.

    OGXI: 188m mkt cap, 90m cash, Phase 2 Prostate cancer - (could see MDVN type move)
    GALE: 120m mkt cap, 40m cash, Phase 3 HER2 Breast cancer Immunity vaccine (ARNA Type move)
    CLDX: Nice portfolio of mAB
    LPTN: 53m mkt cap, 500 mil deal with pfizer. Phase 2 assets for WET AMD (mAB discovery platform)
    CLSN: 300m mkt cap, 23 mil cash, 7 oncology indications, Phase 3 liver cancer due soon.
    INO: 97m mkt cap, Hep C, Flu and many vaccines

    All these small caps listed above have major upside if their drugs work, are approved, and commercial success. Curious to hear your take a look at those. I am currently long GALE, CLSN. Thinking about opening a position in CLDX.

    CLDX looks like it will hit $10 by May or so. They may get their cancer treatment approved without the need for Phase 3.

    I think CLSN can go to $20-30 on impressive data. GALE has probably highest upside of any biotech stock out there. I don't know any other stock that can go from $1.70 to $20+ currently.

    SGEN is intriguing 3B mkt cap with ADC mAB technology. But I don't know how much more it can grow.

    Looking for the next AMGN, REGN, CELG, PCYC, while its in the single digits. They come around once every 10-20 years. I am still long REGN into the sunset, but would be nice to find the next one sometime soon :)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Omontys Sales are very disappointing

    by genedocteur61 Jan 16, 2013 2:37 PM
    regn727 regn727 Jan 16, 2013 2:57 PM Flag

    Its a slow launch due to contract situations. Everyone knows this. $300-500 million by 2014.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Target for 2013: $30-45. 2014: $50-65 or buyout

    by regn727 Jan 16, 2013 3:13 AM
    regn727 regn727 Jan 16, 2013 2:56 PM Flag

    Longs read this post. Don't get frustrated.

  • regn727 regn727 Jan 16, 2013 12:55 PM Flag

    The lower it goes, the more I buy. I am long shares, but hoping I can add again in 141-160 range. So far I don't see it going below 164-165.

    Slower sales, downgrades, fiscal cliff - none could take it below 164-170.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • FMS expanded contract alone will likely send it up 15-25% in one day between now and April. AFFY is running a trial for 10,000 patients right now, but 140,000+ patients can potentially switch over. They have 5 of the 6 small-to-mid size dialysis providers (see JPM conference). Nephrologist awareness of the drug is vastly picking up - confirmed by BioTrends report. It's going to be a slow mover, but I am fine with that - relatively low risk here: approved drug thats equally effective, financially competitive, advantageous to doctors, nurses, patients, and clinics. Sitting on a large long position. As good as it can get in biotech investment, that is why it is 92% institution owned.

    There is relatively no competition till mid 2014, early 2015. I originally picked up AFFY at $11-14 range, sold at $25-27. Been buying back aggressively in $19-23 range.

    Don't let anyone scare you into selling your shares. In biotech, be worried about misleading scientific data. Be worried of government intervening in overpriced drugs. Be worried if company is low on cash or has inept management. None of these are the case with AFFY. Management is sitting on $100 million in cash. They share costs with Takeda and take advantage of their marketing expertise. It's also nice to have conservative management that hasn't given guidance yet until contracts are finalized. Omontys is the drug that everyone wants.

    No one likes bullies. People are tired of getting 9-13 injections a month. Think about the price of gas having to get into your car 13 times a month. Think about clinics paying nurses 13 times when they can be paying once. Think of the opportunity cost of all that lost time. People now can get 1 injection a month. People, clinics can save money in the process. It bodes better for administrative costs, it bodes better for any potential side effects. People are tired of AMGN monopoly. AFFY's Omontys is to ESA/Dialysis what REGN's Eylea is to Wet AMD. Eylea is the 2nd or 3rd most successful drug launch in history. The contractual complexities of the ESA/dialysis providers means Omontys will see (has seen) much slower sales growth than Eylea. But by 2014, I expect Omontys to be pulling in sales of $300-500 million conservatively or even $600-750million if things go well. That is not even accounting for foreign sales. Take a look at REGN's stock price and market cap. REGN has a great pipeline, probably one of the top 2-3 pipeline in all of Biotech. AFFY lacks a pipeline, but has the technological means to create more drugs if they wanted to. I like that management is prioritizing Omontys currently. Right now AFFY has an $800 million market cap. I full expect this company's market cap to be between $1.5-2 Billion between 2013-2014 which would put the company's stock price at around $41-$54.

    Lot of people want a buyout, but I think management should not entertain offers below $40/share.

    I am adding more almost daily at these levels through options and shares since I know in 12-24 months, $18-22 will be the 52week low on AFFY. This is one of the 5 best stocks you can own in your portfolio.

    Good luck, health, wealth, peace, and prosperity for all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    argoalpuche....

    by regn727 Jan 16, 2013 1:03 AM
    regn727 regn727 Jan 16, 2013 1:06 AM Flag

    Any other small cap ( less than 500m mkt cap) or single digit biotech stocks that you think could be 5-10+ bagger long-term? Would appreciate your insights on other long term prospects.

  • Reply to

    argoalpuche....

    by regn727 Jan 16, 2013 1:03 AM
    regn727 regn727 Jan 16, 2013 1:04 AM Flag

    Any other small cap (

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • regn727 by regn727 Jan 16, 2013 1:03 AM Flag

    You are one of the best posters on all of YMB's, very knowledgable. I've been lurking on these boards for a while. I have also been long REGN since 50's now and also believe strongly in the REGN story. I was going to ask you which other companies are you long in biotech?

    I am long AFFY. They have a very similar situation to REGN, with their dialysis drug (less dosing, cheaper pricing). However they lack deep pipeline like REGN. Nonetheless, my target is $30-40 in 2013. It's my 2nd largest position after REGN.

    I have been swing trading PCYC since $30 breakout, it has a lot of potential and It could also be another one that goes to $100-200+. That wont happen till it breaks out above $70 though.

    I am also long CLSN at the moment, phase 3 Liver Cancer data expected any day now (by Jan 31)

    ARIA, CLDX, SGEN, OGXI, and INFI also look seem like good companies. No positions ATM.

    But In terms of multiple baggers or small cap companies, so far the ones I like are CLSN and GALE. I think GALE is seriously undervalued at 150m mkt cap for Phase 3 HER-2 Breast Cancer Immunity eliminating cancer recurrence potentially. Science still needs to be proven in full, but It could run up to $5-10 into data, then $15-100 if their vaccine is approved and commercial success.

    Any other small cap (

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AFFY
0.634-0.007(-1.09%)Apr 17 3:57 PMEDT

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