Silly statement to say they have hedged up - keep in mind they hedged over 100% last quarter they told you and they lost 10% book - how?? Because hedged is a tricky semantic word - they might have hedged up dollars wise but not duration wise and thats why they got smoked
just the fact that they went long more into 15 years and kept the full hedge on tells you they coudl see that their hedging last quarter was inadequate.
big mismatch in their assets and hedge duration wise - its in better shape but shows they are clueless
arr met their dividend is the way i see it - while others are beating est but more so dividends too
nly .35 divi .30
agnc .75 core .65 divi
cmo, cys, amtg, mitt all much better then the 2 i just mentioned.
I dont care about spelling or grammar when it comes to finding value in investing or trading but i do like it when blackrock buys "steaks" can i get one
i think arr had the worst earnings out there so far - not even close - better value elsewhere, now when others ran up , i actaully bought arr at 4.26 and got out 4.29 and started shorting because others fell
others beat bigger and lost less on book
so i will be long or short but for sure ill short rallies and just want to mention there are better longs out there if you can get them on a dip.
and the reasons arent because i think so but because of their better spreads, better earnings, similar p/b and one big other reason.
they are the worst
for sure sell the rallies arr
buy the dips in the others
so down 10% and lets run to 15 years and oh mbs rallied big
so they will see 3 to 5% bounce only if they are lucky as they left hedging on in full (or should say in fool)
and better value elsewhere for sure.
statements like this are stupid - not because you are long or short but because you feel this is a long only stock - that's just dumb - if you think this has value fine get long but to think that the shorts haven't killed it in this overall and I have been long big and short big many times but to think shorts didn't kill this is ignorant
and also their report is the worst of the bunch so far - others have book gains and or crushed earnings - outpacing their dividends (or nly, mtge and agnc 5% book losses but easily beat their dividends)
arr lost 10% and they met their dividend - so that's why I say they are the worst.
buy the dips in the others - better value there and sell the rallies in arr - before you say im a short - im long 3k at the close in this but will flip out on any bounce and start shorting all rallies.
might lose here short but ill make more in the others - bette quality and better value.
took a hit because they had long duration and poorly hedged up - they rotate nearly $4b to 15 years but magic mbs is rallying big this quarter - up as much as was down last quarter - so they got scared and rotated to less duration
left hedges the same which shows that they realized they were poorly hedged up duration wise and now that will eat into book
still gotta guess book up 3 to 5% this quarter and they can earn but with lower yielders should have beefed up leverage a bit
I sold the open premarket at .34 and got out .30
long 3k at the end near 4.26 - probably .85 to .90 p/b now and these guys so far have had the worst earnings compared to peers - so I wont knock them other then what they have released themselves. - id rather short rallies here and buy dips in others
but if they dip ill look at them for a long but wont commit - better value and better quality elsewhere like cys. and mitt and mfa and cmo and etc, all that beat and book was up .
ADDED 12K MYSELF TODAY
THEY WILL DECLARE VERY SHORTLY AND .32 TO .34 PROBABLY COMING
OTHERS ADDING SHORT PUTS LOWER OUT IN APRIL OR SETPEMBER I THINK
20 TO 50 CONTRACTS JUST TO FEEL SOME OUT
THE 8'S I THINK
AGNC, MTGE, CYS AND MITT (MITT WAS 3/5 LAST YEAR)
SO LOOKING FOR LONGS ON ALL DIPS.
SHORTING MFA ON ITS RALLIES AS ITS LAST IN LINE AS WELL AS ANH
but same two harbors - scammed down and print and then they will push to the fornt
ughhhhh dont you see an arr like hit down once they get cliped on book
then maybe its time to talk divi declare and a run up???
ha ha what a joke
with that six pack.
of course lennie my 3k in mitt from .77 looks rather good now
last quarter declared 3/5 and should hold and go off to the races first.
13.6% and they earned it and book stable
sounds solid to me
but mbs up 2 pts now on the quarter - up up up pu pu and might go more if ukraine issues escalate -
ha ha eod i mean i feel stupid after i wrote that but i was burnt out
and what is morningstar
flipping to long for now but staying small in this
beat big, spreads widened, more push to credit, prepays very low, and book about flat
and well below book with a much fatter yield then amtg
arr is what wmc will look like on its earnings