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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

reinterpretme 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2014 1:10 PM Member since: Nov 4, 2010
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  • reinterpretme by reinterpretme Aug 15, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    Jefferson Research drops coverage for ALCATEL LUCENT.BY Investars Analyst Actions - public
    — 10:06 AM ET 08/15/2014
    On August 15, 2014 Jefferson Research dropped coverage for ALCATEL LUCENT

  • reinterpretme by reinterpretme Aug 5, 2014 8:23 AM Flag

    IMO, Last night's JPM upgrade is the reason ALU is down so much this a.m. I ask you to pay particular attention to the last paragraph of the upgrade. thanks, reinterpretme

    In a note released Monday, Morgan Stanley analyst Francois Meunier upgraded shares of Alcatel Lucent (NYSE: ALU) from Equal-weight to Overweight.

    Meunier noted that despite the belief that the company will not be able to hit its #$%$7 billion target for core revenues, he is "increasingly convinced" that it will be able to hit 12.5 percent EBIT margins due to "portfolio pruning" and cost reductions.

    Meunier added that he believes Alcatel Lucent's share price has been hurt by solid results of its peers. However, he sees this as a "classic case" of overreaction due to "midway jitters" in a restructuring plan.

    Finally, Meunier warned that because, in his view, Alcatel Lucent behaves like a momentum stock, it could prove to be volatile until the company posts its third quarter results as there are no obvious catalyst before then.

  • reinterpretme by reinterpretme Aug 1, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Core Networking weakness reflects competitive pressures. Core Networking revenue decreased 13% year-over-year as reported and 10% in constant currency (cc) to 1.37 billion euros. All segments experienced negative year-over-year growth with the company attributing weakness to tough comps in Internet protocol (IP) Routing, legacy product declines in IP Transport, and product rationalization in IP Platforms. AT&T (T) and Verizon Communications ( VZ ) focused the bulk of their first-half capital expenditures on Wireless, which also contributed to the Core Networking decline. However, given year-over-year growth at Juniper, Infinera and Ciena, it also looks like Alcatel-Lucent is losing market share.
    Wireless capital-expenditures trends bolster Access revenues. Long term evolution (LTE) roll-outs in China and by U.S. Tier 1s generated strong year-over-year growth in Access segment revenue (up 5% as reported, up 10% year-over-year in cc) and Wireless Access in particular (up 22%, up 28%). Wireless revenue has grown year-over-year for five of the last six quarters and is expected to grow again in the third quarter. Sprint (S) is forecast to expand its LTE network spending in the fourth quarter, but we expect a seasonally weak fourth quarter at Verizon and AT&T as these carriers will likely have exhausted their annual capital-expenditure budgets by the November/December time frame.
    Management achieved fixed-cost savings of 94 million euros in the second quarter, bringing the total to date to 572 million euros. Operating expenses decreased 9% year-over-year with selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs declining 14%. The ratio of SG&A costs to revenue declined 130 basis points to 12.1% compared to the year-ago quarter. The company has now achieved about 60% of the targeted about 1 billion euros in fixed-cost savings by 2015.
    -- Michael Genovese

  • reinterpretme by reinterpretme Aug 1, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    Alcatel-Lucent Losing Out

    Juniper Networks, Ciena and Infinera are all taking market share away.

    Aug. 1, 2014 3:20 p.m. ET

    MKM Partners

    Alcatel-Lucent's second-quarter revenue was in line, but earnings per share fell short due to restructuring and financing expenses.

    Alcatel-Lucent (ticker: ALU ) continued to execute on its Shift Plan by completing a 2 billion euro debt re-profiling, increasing fixed-cost savings and announcing plans for a first-half 2015 initial public offering (IPO) of Alcatel-Lucent Submarine Networks ( ASN ). We remain cautious on the name, despite the restructuring progress already achieved, since we see limited scope for such a diversified Telecom Equipment company to produce revenue upside. Further, we believe the low-hanging operating-expenses fruit has already been picked, and significant additional asset sales (beyond the contemplated ASN IPO) are unlikely to materialize.
    Alcatel-Lucent looks like it is losing market share in Core Networking due to competition from Juniper Networks ( JNPR ) (rated at Buy, $30 price target) in Edge Routing and Ciena ( CIEN ) (rated at Buy, $28 price target) and Infinera ( INFN ) (rated at Buy, $12 price target) in Optical.
    We are maintaining a Neutral rating on Alcatel-Lucent. We are slightly adjusting our 2014 and 2015 estimates and decreasing our fair-value estimate to $4.00 from $4.50.

ALU
3.32-0.01(-0.30%)Sep 18 4:03 PMEDT

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