The X is before the end of this month. The record day would be 3 business days before that, so they should announce the increase his week or next week. The question is: Will the stock go up a lot on the announcement, or is it already "baked in" (i.e. everyone already knows about the div. increase). Also, they could surprise us and make it a 10 cent increase instead of the 5 cents I'm thinking about. When the div. was 0.40 the stock was $14, so that would be nice.
oops, I meant "Office Depot" not "Home Depot" above. Maybe that's a Freudian slip... I think we need Home Depot as out customer. They are as stable as can be.
Maybe many of them will become "Whole Foods" and "Sprouts", they are both very profitable, serve a market demand, and are about the same store size as a home depot. Also, people will always need a retail office supply for "emergencies" (need it in hand right now) and pay a high mark up for that. But maybe don't need these monster sized stores that have "everything" ? On the other hand, they have a good system where you order on the web and pick up at the store 2 or 3 days later, so the shipping is free. Really hard to predict what retailers survive - the main thing is OLP is there to collect the retn from whoever is the survivor.
I only know of 8. Did I miss 1 ?
(1) Naples, Florida
(2) Batavia, N.Y.
(3) Athens, Georgia
(4) Chicago, Illinois
(5) Lake Charles, Lousisana
(6) Cary, N.C.
(7) Eugene, Oregon
(8) El Paso, Texas
I agree with you that long term, this will probably lead to some store closings by the new Office Depot. They have long term contracts, so can't close quickly (w/o hefty penalties). I don't know the average remaining lease term, but will guess its around 5 years. If the economy doesn't weaken, then OLP will find replacements at higher rents...but they could sit empty for many months during a transition.
While OLP is a small REIT, its big enough that we shouldn't feel anything in the financials.
It wouldn't hurt if they increased the dividend by a penny or two. A message to the Portnoys: treat us nice, or Corvex will come knocking on your door.
I still like GOV. Its not for "getting rich", but we're getting 7.1%, inflation adjusted, low risk, not bad at all.
Also, you'll find that not all of the 7.1% is taxable. ERF has done great recently. Of course I'm in the DRIP, you practically have to. Not only the 5% discount, also, no 15% tax deduction, which in theory I'm supposed to get back, but every year TurboTax and the IRS don't agree with this "theory" with pages of complicated math that I cannot argue against. I'm not in any DRIP with GOV, as I'm not sure if they even have one. By the way, you got a great price for GOV. Hopefully it will be at 25 soon. Take a look at OLP, a top notch REIT (in my opinion), just very small, so can be more volatile, and has a bigger bid/ask spread, which is OK if you're not in a hurry to get in or out.
I see your concern, as none of the MLPs seem to cover their distributions if you look at their earnings. It "looks" even worse at Enbridge or Kinder Morgan. This is why we don't have to pay (almost) any taxes on the distributions, and I attribute it to the depreciation accounting on the massive capital investments. I find WPZ safer than most, but I agree with you 100% that if (when) rates rise, it will put negative pricing pressure on the shares.
On the other hand, the commission does allow for variable cost adjustments, and as you pointed out, WPZ gets to sell "unused" capacity at almost a free market price (what we call "legal price gauging") at the margin. Anyway you look at it, the "services" part of WPZ is booming. Its the "products" side I would worry about. I admit I don't understand what is going on there. Maybe you can shed some light on why the "products" (cracking) is in decline ? Thanks.
I managed to pick up another 1,000 shares at a great price today. So many greta developments recently in OLP.
1. I saw that Blackrock has accumulated a nice chunk of OLP.
2. They did a really nice refinancing at a rate 1% lower than the old mortgage (nice!!) and with a few million extra "cash out" to buy more properties that yield twice as much as the mortgage rate.
Now I will wait for $25 to $28 patiently.
I'm no Blackrock, but even I can see this "diamond in the rough" raise dividends 7% every year and grow.
That's interesting, I never heard of JMF before. If you never do K1's then how are the taxes done ? Just a 1099 like a REIT ?
I noticed they have kept their div. fixed at 0.316 for many years. Does this mean there is a big increase imminent ? WPZ raises the div. a few pennies EVERY QUARTER which I love. The idea with WPZ is that you keep it until you die. You pay almost no income tax on the divs, and they just reduce your basis for when you sell. But if you die and leave WPZ to your children, their basis resets to the market price on the day they inherit it, so effectively uncle sam forgives you for all those years of not paying taxes. Of course, if you're too rich, there is "death tax". Maybe JMF is the same way ?
Yes, crude is slowly drifting up. I'm hoping it will return to triple digits soon. ERF is my biggest. I also bought some PWE a couple days ago. I have WPZ (you mention pipelines - any interesting ideas besides WPZ ? I wanted to get KMP but their yield is too low so
I only have WPZ), OLP (I love this REIT), and GOV (safe tenants). You can see I'm ultra conservative. For my "gambling" side, I bought some AMD when they crashed after the earnings report last week. I did get punished on that one, but the rest did OK on this "black" Friday. I like the "inflation adjusted" 7% yield on the RIETs and pipelines, and the reason I like Canadian oil/gas so much is the current depressed prices and almost certain relief - on one side Keystone will eventually happen (after Obama is dumped) , and on the other side, B.C. oil/LNG terminal with sales to Asia, will also be a reality eventually. ERF too a hit, rebounded, and is now lean and mean enough to survive until one or two of these events brings big time prosperity. PWE is behind ERF on the curve, but they will follow ERFs method (sell assets, reduce costs, go for low hanging fruit from the CapEx point of view) and survive to see Keystone/Kitimat.
By the way, this is so serious now, that the U.S. is trying to build LNG terminals in Oregon/Washington and a pipeline from Canada to sell "our" (ERF, PWE,PGH) to Japan/Korea/China, too. Look up:
Oregon LNG Marketing Co
Jordan Cove LNG
Both want to pipe Alberta gas into the U.S. west coast, under various guises, but its clear they will re-export a significant amount to Asian customers at high prices (the Japanses are paying triple already). If Obama keeps blocking Keystone, we will soon not need it anyway. In 3 or 4 years, ERF and PWE will be getting double what they are getting now.
It seems sometimes, I might be the only one patient enough to wait. Young people want instant gratification. But end up losing.
So far in January, rates have been moving in a good direction for NLY. I think your prediction has a good chance. I wouldn't say "for sure", but good chance. And while $0.30 is not bad.... $0.35 is even better :)
Looks like we're in the 21's now, just like I predicted. You might still get a small amount at 20.95 but if you add $10 commission, and they only give you 100 shares, it will really be 21.05, and if they really want to screw with you, they'll give you 20 shares at 20.95 plus $10 commission, for a real price of 21.45. So maybe getting the full number of shares you want (1000 ?) at 21.10 and not wasting hundreds
(or thousands) of $ of your time, is not such a bad thing. Then, "retire" on your 7.1% dividend stream.... and watch the principal slowly drift to 25 over the next couple of years. While others make and then quickly lose fortunes, we like to slowly make real progress.
We're about 40% NG
The stock follows crude oil price more closely, because NG is considered too volatile. In other words, some investors are skeptical that the huge NG price increase won't reverse itself. But, NG just keeps going up (in the spot, at least), and if it continues, everyone will be convinced. So there is a sort of "lag" between the stock and NG prices. Don't worry, if (maybe within 1 year?) NG hits $7, ERF will go through the roof (I'm talking $30/share)
This is getting to "panic buying" levels: NG closed up $0.45 at $5.16
I know it sounds borderline "pumper", but I am starting to think PWE could be good for a triple,
not just a double. You see, at the margin, this is a several fold increase in earnings. What do I mean ?
If the cost of production is $3.00 (including amortizing capital expenditures), then selling at $4 instead of selling at $3.25 is a quadrupling of profit. I use these numbers as VERY rough estimates, but I think the principle holds, there's about $1 "lost" on the way to the NY market. This business is very capital intensive, so when they report $2.25 as their marginal cost, I would add $1 (at least) for amortizing capex.