we saved your butt with SIR
you borrowed our money to remain in control
you owe us big time
GOV price has languished for 2 years because divi has
Time for a 10% hike
Other producers can increase product ion to compensate for the shortage.
But it will take some time so there will be a short term disruption in the market
where crude oil will rise and Suezmax rates will slightly decline and then recover.
Enbridge owns 50% of MEP. Their interest is to do something that makes the share price go up.
They can offer $12/share for the other 50%, and be getting a steal.
reducing economies "a lot" ? 20% according to you.
The official number is a draft of 49.9 , so you're right in saying that the Suezmax ships won't be fully loaded, but it will be more economical than using the old panamax ships with a draft of just 39.5 even if fully loaded. Suezmax ships will definitely be employed in the gulf of Mexico to Asia routes. Even more, this will be perfect for Venezuela to China routes, 100% using panamax right now..
This has been in the works for a long time, and that's why a lot of suezmax vessels have been built. And guess what ? NAT is one of the shippers adding more suezmax ships. There will be some new routes. The U.S. lifting ban on crude exports will finally become effective, as the cost of shipping from the gulf to Asia will become affordable. The last hurdle will be when the democrooks are ousted, and the Keystone pipeline (which got a lot of media attention) and the Enbridge pipline expansion are approved by a new administration. Then, a huge flow of oil will commence from Alberta, to the gulf, to our tankers, to Asia. New business is always great for making earning explode.
"One of the real bright spots in the shipping markets in recent weeks has been the so-called “Contango Storage Arbitrage Trade”. For those unfamiliar with the parlance, the term Contango refers to the condition in the futures market when a commodity has a higher value at a future date than it does presently. Backwardation is the opposite market condition. In an environment of Contango, if the difference between the current price and the future price is greater than the cost of storing and delivering the commodity, then there is the potential for arbitrage.
In the recent weeks, such an arbitrage opportunity has been available and savvy traders from Koch to Phibro to Morgan Stanley have taken advantage of the opportunity by loading 30-35 VLCCs and 10 Suezmax tanker full of crude oil and having them sit idle until its time to lighter the cargo."
Or maybe their scaring has been working well throughout 2016. I add WMIH shares whenever I can get cash to pay for them. Its been several years now that they sell them to me, and I remember having to pay way over $3/share a little over a year ago, so I'm really glad to get them at $2.40 now.
They think they can get away with paying just $10/share. Since they sold them at $20/share, they will make a killing. Then they can keep the dividends for themselves. As someone pointed out here, at $10/share the yield is still extremely high (over 14%) so for them its hugely accretive and will make their stock go up.
I agree that based on the current price, the yield is unrealistically high. However, instead of just saying ""MEP is priced for a cut"", I would say there are 2 possibilities: either distribution is cut, or share price goes up significantly. I am betting (heavily) on the latter possibility. We're already up over 75% from recent lows. I expect another 50% at least, but not necessarily always increasing. There will be (as there has been) profit taking, and more opportunities to buy on down days before we get there. Of course, all our analysis/predictions are based on no more crashes in energy prices. That can always happen, and ruin everything. I don't know short term (1 quarter), but longer term, naural gas and especially natural gas liquids should be trending much higher, as capacity to export these to markets where prices are double or triple our prices is being built now. Note that there are much less political hurdles to exporting NGLs. No one fears a shortage of ethane or propane and they aren't seen as having a strategic importance like crude oil (or the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) which powers tanks, jet fighters, war ships, etc.
Ethane: $0.205 yesterday at Mont Belvieu hub (where MEP delivers and sells Natural Gas Liquids via its Texas Express). That's up over 40% since $0.145/gallon in March.
Propane: $0.464/gallon yesterday at Mont Belvieu . Up over 50% since late January.
The cash is finally coming in. It probably won't show up (fully) in the upcoming financial results (look back 3 months where the prices were depressed), but the quarterly report after this one will show a huge increase in DCF, and I believe they will hike the distribution. does the stock market looks 3 months ahead ? I'm confident we will break $10/share at the next quarterly results (around 3 months from now).
I know some people (friends and family) who bought in the 4's and 5's and told me they "had to" sell in the 6's because of the fast rise (they made 50% profit in just a week. While I said "you'll regret it when we're in the teens", I can't argue with taking a profit when its 50% in just a week. But for me, this is a chance to buy more. MEP is tightly held, 50% by Enbridge, and with just a dozen other medium holders (around 3 to 5% each) there are only a few hundred thousand shares trading loosely every day. So anytime someone is selling, I am buying.