If you're able and willing to do so, pull up a "comparison cart" matching OVIT to AVXL (Avanex) and you'll see what discovery by the marketplace can do for a small company with a relatively limited pipeline.
OVIT has yet to be really discovered but, knowing Dr. Weis, I think that will happen.
Last point: I expect financing "news" sometime this month as I suspect discussions by Weis with bankers and other sources have been ongoing for several months and the time feels about right to make the decision and pull the trigger on a deal to most likely "bridge" until the company gets further down the road. That should prove to be the catalyst to get the share price well above $1.00....but what do I know !!!!!!!!!!!!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
$45-48 looks to be a decent place/price to add....but, in truth, only the BB (and the overall market) will determine the best place/price.
I'm not concerned in any way about the increased losses reported as the company is adding personnel, new technology through its partnership and continues to speak out more favorably about its pipeline and ADCETRIS potential.
need...needs...really bad language skills
Do not end a sentence with a preposition.....you flunked English the second time.
While he's obviously disturbed in some way, illiterate, and has an agenda, his postings do help in drawing attention to OVIT as numbers of postings do count to add to "page clicks." So the more he posts, the more OVIT is likely to attract the curious to see what all the posts are about. Assuming newbies to this board and OVIT are reasonably intelligent, it should be easy for them to navigate to the web site, to the SEC filings and, in short order, come to appreciate what is here and what the potential is for OVIT, having now been freed to restart its pathway to commercialization of one or more promising drug candidates.
Your point is well-stated and well taken...especially since Dr. Weis mentioned using a bridge loan before seeking "permanent financing." One of the reasons for using a bridge loan is because you realize the value is so substantially understated that it would be unwise to issue more shares than are absolutely needed at such a low price and cause unneeded dilution. It was a point I was going to make in my analysis (above) but I opted to make a "worse case" scenario---which basically lays out the most diluted case that I can envision and concludes that, even in that scenario, the stock would still be cheap.
If Dr. Weis does the bridge initially and then gets a larger financing once the share price responds, which it, no doubt will, as a bridge will strongly suggest that there is/are believers out there who will back OVIT, then there will be less dilution and even greater upside.
It'll be interesting to see how this all unfolds. Having the new web site up and the financial assistance firm on board shows positive movement...with more to come.
Let me comment on what may happen with OVIT.
We have two drugs in our pipeline and Dr. Weis has commented that we need about $4 MM to perform the necessary drug trials. which may take 2 years.
We have a lawsuit settlement obligation of $1.2 MM.
We have current liabilities that amount to about $5 MM.
I am estimating that we may have other operating expenses of $1.5 MM over the next two years
In sum, we need about $11.7 MM to get from here to "there." For simplicity, let's use $12 MM.
We have 22 million shares outstanding. Let's say that with the new web site, the new PR firm and the realization that OVIT is back in business, the stock can get to $1.00. At that point, we can raise (either publicly or in a private transaction $12 MM). Let's assume that there are some underwriting fees and/or warrants attached to whatever financing takes place so that, when all is said and done, we have 35 MM shares outstanding, have cleaned up the balance sheet and are into our clinical trials.
From looking at other similarly situated biotechs, our market cap will ultimately depend upon the clinical trial outcomes but, if there is any indication whatsoever of a successful trial, our market cap could well approach several hundred million.
Knowing Weis' history, I think the end game will be a sale of the company.
$10 estimates per share are certainly not to be lightly dismissed, though doing this in a year may prove to be a challenge....but it'll be interesting to see how this all plays out....and how far off the mark I may be on my financing commentary.
bio---don't waste time trying to reason with this guy...obviously, he cannot read...or he would have read all the info you cited and be better informed. Clearly, he has an agenda.
because stocks go up and down, and OVIT is no exception and, over the last two days, a few individuals have opted to sell holdings worth a few thousand dollars. I know this will come as a great surprise to one particular individual on this board but he will soon disappear, as they all do, into the ethereal world from which he came
the most posts on this board come from a basher...so, if his logic holds any water about "the most frequent posters having the most to gain," he then must have the most to gain by either trying to keep the share price down for his "owner/employer" to buy or cover a short
You have to remember that, for the last several years, OVIT was really not able to function because of the lawsuit hanging over its head. Now that that's been resolved (favorably to the company) word is beginning to spread that OVIT is back in business. I suspect, because of the long hiatus, it may still be a while until many investors even know that they're back in business. It's not like we're Biogen or Celgene where everyone knows what's going on....but the word is definitely beginning to get out there.
In that context, someone is either privvy to what be happen in the near term or has been caught very short because a basher showed up almost immediately after the lawsuit settlement announcement. Whoever this basher represents, there is definitely an agenda attached to his appearance. I say ignore him and allow his owner to pay the price.
It all depends upon the financing. If Weis can sell the prospects of the OVIT pipeline to either another biotech company or a decent enough investment bank and get a Surprisingly good financing package, $2/ share will happen in a heartbeat, perhaps more. If, however, he has to cobble together a less than decent round of capital, we get a bump just bu virtue of getting some funding but it won't be as big...
I'm optimistic that, with his track record, the former is more likely than the latter...but we shall (soon) see. I see very little downside from where we sit today----the only question to me is how great might be the upside.
While there may be a big market cap to "current" revenues, as most know and appreciate, especially in biotech, these stocks tend to get priced on some estimate of future revenues; in the case of SGEN, as more treatment targets are addressed, the potential valuation can increase dramatically. CELG did not buy RCPT on current revenues but on the prospect of their pipeline's growth in the coming years...and the CELG management aren't a bunch of dummies.
The Bakers will insure that they get paid a premium price for their shares, obviously the same deal we'll get. North of $100 in this environment appears about right. The question is when will the trigger be pulled. I'm sure someone or several prospective buyers know the SGEN potential and further know that the longer they wait, the more costly a "take out" becomes.
That being said, I like waiting while the drama builds.