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YM BioSciences, Inc. Ordinary S Message Board

renmanaz 45 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Jun 20, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Pfizer/GSK/Roche/Takeda/Merck

    by llabtechtwo Jul 31, 2014 9:29 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz 17 hours ago Flag

    All good points. I guess that's why nothing may happen until the share price recovers somewhat and/or a serious buyer with deep pockets emerges. I tend to be very conservative but I do see how you get to your valuation.

  • Reply to

    Pfizer/GSK/Roche/Takeda/Merck

    by llabtechtwo Jul 31, 2014 9:29 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 31, 2014 9:48 PM Flag

    Should have added that Gilead (GILD) has a $140 Billion market cap and it's not inconceivable that SGEN in 7-10 years can match that number...just sayin.'

  • Reply to

    Pfizer/GSK/Roche/Takeda/Merck

    by llabtechtwo Jul 31, 2014 9:29 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 31, 2014 9:45 PM Flag

    SGEN worth just about $7.5 Billion right now. That price would equate to $60/share...at $35+, it may take some negotiating by Felix Baker and his crew but that's the value I put on the scientific package right now. In about 2-3 years, the price probably reaches well north of $12 Billion....so, do you want it njow or are you willing to wait and pay up later.

    Of course, SGEN can do just fine on its own...in 2-3 years, the stock should be selling for $85-90....using the same metrics......and have further opportunities to grow.

  • Reply to

    Q2

    by paladin_roams Jul 31, 2014 5:57 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 31, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    Agree completely. This management team is really top notch...and it shows on the calls. They have a great plan, even better science and we just have to be patient until they really deliver.
    The Baker Brothers obviously know this company exceptionally well---it's the largest holding in their portfolio of 99 companies and their purchase of more than 1.25 MM shares for more than $45 MM over the last 2 1/2 months confirms that they like the progress they are witnessing. Felix Baker, being on the Board suggests he knows what happening; his added purchases tell me all I need to know.

  • renmanaz renmanaz Jul 30, 2014 10:57 PM Flag

    Couple of million? No big deal.

    What is a big deal is that SGEN is the BB's largest holding in their healthcare/biotech portfolio which holds 99 stocks....top dog out of 99: Pretty impressive...plus they recently added another large number of shares. These guys aren't stupid....so it's very significant that they deemed the company worthy enough to up their position.

    What do these guys know? More than I do....but it's always a good move to follow the smart money.

  • and spent $39,326,000 in doing so...their average price was $37.64.
    I do not believe that "purchased 35 Million + Shrs during June" but please correct me if you have better data.

  • Reply to

    Let the ER run-up begin

    by betting_freddy Jul 29, 2014 9:55 AM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 30, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    Yesterday wasn't bad...today is looking better. The Baker Brothers are the smart money here and they're buying...of have recently been buying heavily (now in a mandated "quiet period").

  • Reply to

    Great EPS report

    by renmanaz Jul 22, 2014 4:51 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 30, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Nice to see a couple of upward estimate revisions. They are now in line with my earlier forecast. I liked the longer-term positive tone of last week's CC; apparently, several analysts agreed.

  • Reply to

    TQNT - New Intraday High

    by fortuneking1 Jul 29, 2014 11:54 AM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 29, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    If you look at the TQNT board, I posted there that TQNT is "worth" $22....I base this on the combined TQNT/RFMD merger and a meaningful discount to Skyworks.

  • Reply to

    Possible valuation of TQNT

    by renmanaz Jul 28, 2014 9:19 AM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 29, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    It's been slightly misaligned for several days...not much but a little. Maybe the stocks are being arbitraged off the merger terms. A few cents here, a few cents there, the pros on Wall Street love these little games on merger candidates.

  • Reply to

    Thursday CC

    by koolbrez22 Jul 27, 2014 8:37 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 28, 2014 9:29 AM Flag

    It depends on what you're expecting. I think this company is on a solid path, knows where they're going and how they're planning to get there. The only real question is how long will it take than to achieve the results we (investors and the company management....and, of course the Baker Brothers) all want.

    The recent new buys by the Baker Brothers and the fact that SGEN is their company's largest holding is very, very encouraging.

  • When I look at SWKS (Skyworks) as a barometer for TQNT and RFMD, I get a target price objective for TQNT of $22....this after discounting the combined TQNT/RFMD revenue stream by about 20% but before making any adjustment for the proposed SG&A savings stemming from the merger.

    Yes, there are a lot of moving parts as this deal comes together with the promise of both cost savings and additional competitive advantages of the newly-sized pair of companies.

    Incidentally, the RFMD part is worth about $13.20 using the 1.67 conversion ratio.

  • Reply to

    Baker Boys amassing stake

    by baalok2 Jul 23, 2014 9:57 AM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 24, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    or the market makers are "accommodating" the Baker Brothers who are looking to buy more

  • I maintain that this stock will get back above $50 sooner than most people think. A few things need to happen:
    1) Earnings deliver a solid beat.
    2) Revenues match expectations.
    3) Guidance, both near and longer-term, is reaffirmed.
    4) The Connecticut AG inquiry turns out to be on NO consequence.
    That may be a lot to expect but I think we have a shot at delivering soon on the first three and, hopefully, within a short time thereafter, on number 4.

  • renmanaz by renmanaz Jul 22, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    Blew away estimates on both revs and EPS. Guidance suggests that the balance of the year should also top estimates. My new full-year earnings number is now $1.82+. Preliminary look at 2015, assuming economic tailwinds continue, suggests $2.30+

    I've also raised my 12 month price target to $45.

  • Reply to

    Are you kidding me?

    by asiepker Jul 16, 2014 6:53 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 17, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    So, let me see if I have this right. If the STATE AG is proven to be just on a "fishing expidition" and nothing comes of this "probe," (in other words, if the company, as it asserts, has done nothing wrong and has complied with all applicable rules and regulations," then the share price should go back to the upper $40's which is where it was before this all happened...

    By the time this probe ends, LCI will likely have reported at least one, perhaps two additional quarters of decent earnings growth. By then, in all fairness, the stock should reflect its true fundamentals.

  • Reply to

    OVIT started a new run

    by tobins86 Jul 15, 2014 12:41 PM
    renmanaz renmanaz Jul 17, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    Much higher...well north of $1.75

  • with his preference for Perrigo vs LCI. PRGO, a nice company in its own right, really is in a different space on several counts (product mix and distribution) than LCI.

    Here's another observation. I think the upcoming quarter will be solid and will not disappoint. The recent upgrade of at least one analyst's opinion for 2015 full year EPS also, to me at least, means that the same analyst surely must have looked at the upcoming quarter's numbers and they appeared solid. Maybe we'll even get a modest beat which would add to the attractiveness of LCI...but we'll know soon enough.

    Off almost $5 as I type this....$42 + looks like a great entry price.

  • renmanaz by renmanaz Jul 14, 2014 9:25 AM Flag

    Today's Mylan-Abbott deal offers an intriguing possibility for something LCI might wish to explore doing with another pharma. It's a great way to accelerate growth possibilities.

  • In the last 3 years WDC is + 165% while STX is + 255%
    In the last 12 months WDC is + 46% while STX is + 28%

    Draw whatever conclusions you'd like but I'm thinking STX has a bit of ground to make up...and probably will.

    Sentiment: Buy

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