STS gets hit very hard a couple of days ago. WHY?
A few insider sales of relatively insignificant amounts of stock and panic ensues. Keep in mind that there were very, very modest amounts of shares relative to total holdings.
No mention was made, so I'll make it, that there has been a significant increase in earnings estimates for both this year and next year. Granted, there's only one analyst but, for what it's worth, his numbers are about in line with my own numbers. If so, STS is still significantly undervalued, though, obviously, not as much as three months ago.
In the last CC, management spoke about possibly making an acquisition in Canada. That would be a smart move as the company would like to expand its footprint across a broader geographci region.
Finally, let's not forget that STS would make someone a great acquisition candidate...based upon my estimates, I can see $15-18 as a decent (fair) takeout price.
Hold your breath....it's on the way....and, speaking of "on the way," shouldn't you be getting on your way. You add nothing constructive.
Biotechs are off about 35% from prior highs (IBB as a proxy) and SGEN along with them. The differentiation is that SGEN has a pipeline with three possible blockbuster drugs, a relatively modest valuation relative to that pipeline....AND the full backing (30% ownership) of the Baker Brothers organization.
That makes for a pretty compelling opportunity.
Just saw this afternoon that the Baker Brothers Investments reduced their holding in LIFE during the first quarter of 2016..
For several years, I have followed the BBs as a tag-along partner and find it distressing that they opted to lower their position in LIFE. In my eyes, these guys are excellent assessors of companies, management teams and drugs....so I do not take lightly their reduction.
Some institutions are under pressure to perform in the short-term...so anything that may linger on the sidelines for a while is not where they want to be.
Of course, I can share with you from personal experience, by the time the skies clear, the stocks will already have moved up substantially. That's just human nature to wait until all issues are resolved but, by then, the share prices will already have moved in anticipation of that resolution.
I have a large position in SGEN...and do not wish to play the Wall Street games of trying to time the ups and downs. My strategy is and has been in place for many, many years and, while occasionally painful, swimming against the Wall Street tide and the analyst community has proven for me to be a better way to go than jumping into the pool with the crowd.
A few institutions have come to the conclusion (erroneously so, in my book) that bio companies will never be allowed to recapture their R & D investment in their pipelines....that the big hand og Government will shut them out....In fact, patients will demand and the market will allow bios to be "paid" for bringing to the market the many life-saving and life-extending drugs in their labs.
What we are seeing is a typical market over-reaction to politicians screaming about the high cost of drugs. That screaming will go away after the election when reality will once again dominate.
To me, this is an excellent time to be accumulating selected bios with a clear pipeline and a pathway to profitability. I think, for instance, that The Bakers know this regarding SGEN and are riding this hiccup out...and so am I. If we get a further dip/correction, I will become a buyer in both SGEN and in the other key players in the group.
The SGEN end game, to me, still appears to be a substantial buyout. When? Anyone's guess...but I can wait.
Yes, the just-reported quarter was very good. They beat my estimate by a penny and I targeted revenues to come in at $70 MM. They reported $69.4 MM, and the margin improvement more than made up for the minimal disappointment.
In Q 2, I have estimated revenues of $88 and EPS in the range of $.28-.30. The one analyst covering STS shows both slightly higher revenues and EPS and, while I'd be happy with my numbers, I'd be even happier with his.
For the full year, I'm using revenues of $302 MM and EPS between $.94-98.
Clearly, the company has gotten its act together, as I've previously commented.
The company still is on my radar as an acquisition target...but I've heard nothing to confirm or even suggest that. My EOY (end of year) target is now $15-18.
Of the ones I follow---yes.
However, I have no doubt that some smallish bio stocks (small capitalization, very low share price) will outperform SGEN....but the challenge amounts to a #$%$-shoot which I'm not willing to take. Buying a group of small bio stocks may hit one or two home runs but the losers will eat you alive and negate any positive performers.
At least with SGEN, I know what they are doing, have a decent sense of the end game and like both the management, the pipeline and the heavy involvement of those guys named Baker. That last point alone, increases my odds of success.
Maybe the President got canned because he mucked up the acquisition, failed to re-set the deal terms due to a loss of revenues. If so, I'd be OK with that; in fact, I'd actually be encouraged.
Don't know for sure but it's happened at other companies I've been involved with in the past.
Have done so already.. I would stretch to add below $30...if that ever occurs again. I'd be competing for shares with the Bakers....always fun.
My "projections" are based upon a comprehensive analysis of SGEN's drug pipeline, the likelihood of them having multiple billion dollar drugs in the marketplace in the future, the dwindling pipelines of many large pharma participants (and their likelihood of using their cash to buy drugs with a track record and an outstanding pipeline (cancer and other major conditions), and the fact that 65% of the outstanding shares are held by four institutions, with the largest slug in the hands of the Baker Brothers who have a SGEN Board seat and an insatiable desire to make a killing with their bio investments.
At the end of the day, investing is all about playing the odds...and I just happen to like the odds of what I am seeing.
$12-15 seems about right. There would be synergies (cost savings from eliminating duplication of certain functions and consolidation of some facilities, etc.) from taking out STS that could add incrementally to late 2016 EPS and thereafter.
REPOST FROM FEB 19th
Based on comments made in the full-year report issued yesterday by STS management, I'd say they have a decent shot at revenues of $350 MM in 2016 and an after tax margin of 5 to 5.2%. This should enable the company to earn a bit more than $1.00---my range is $1.02-$1.06.
Sales per share would be in excess of $20/share and ROI should be north of 12%, very decent for a minimally-leveraged operation. Less
REPOST FROM FEB 19TH
Several STS board members who own a significant share of the company's shares are 75+ age-wise and they're not getting any younger. They may have come to the realization a while back that it was time to dress up the company for a sale....and that's my bet.
Also four institutions own 27% of the company and I'm sure they've communicated their thoughts to management.
A good buyout would be north of $12/share