Hi., guys --
I'm trying to remember if I've ever owned a more hated stock -- although obviously the massive insider dumping isn't helping much. I just don't see how this won't be looking _real_ cheap at $5/share 12 months from now.
Hi, guys --
It's a mystery to me, too. I've been worried that the price was lagging because the preferred suit was developing adversely, but obviously not. I dunno. The stock is up a lot off it's lows, and is tainted because of Smuylan and the screwing of the preferred holders. Both of these should fade from view over time.
Hi, guys --
My first impression is:
1: Check our bank balances.
2: Essentially a bunch of misdirection. The key bit is:
"On July 3, 2009, Montage Technology (Shanghai) transferred its equity interest in SLMT,"
, which Gravity agrees with; the issue, who was it transferred to?
Any other thoughts?
Hi, guys --
Thanks for the replies!
Mercury.buster: "Figure ADES earns $150 million a year from RC for 8 years."
OK. That's about $14 EPS. Stick that in a spreadsheet and see what kind of IRR you get at a $50 stock price. Then, for conservatism, zero out 2014 and see what comes out. I get 20% and 13%. Are those IRRs too high, too low? Maybe either way, but the numbers make some kind of sense.
gorakrishna: "You have completely discounted MATS."
Try the same IRR exercise.
Also, step back for a sec and think about the implied returns on investment capital, which will be beyond phenomenal.
To repeat, I'm not short and think (absent insider info or evidence of fraud), that you'd have to be insane to short this, because if the business plan works the stock is going a lothigher. But -- I've been invested since the Summer of 2012 with a cost basis around $20. At that entry price, you make money if the market ever _thinks_ the business would work. At today's price, the business actually _needs_ to work, which is an altogether different ball of wax.
Hi, guys --
So, _really_ roughly:
-- Per management, all plants will be "in operation" by YE 2014. Note that's "in operation", not "sold", and that there's been some, ahh, slippage from past management forecasts.
-- So call RC $10/share from 2015 through 2020. That's $50.
-- There's of course more to the company than RC. But it looks like RC is pretty fully in the price.
I of course understand that if ADES is putting out, say, $3-$4 in quarterly EPS in 2015, and the markets stay frothy, the stock is going a lot higher. But what's it worth?
To forestall the usual attack-the-messenger stuff, I own this but am starting to think about moving to the sidelines.
Hi, p_n_p --
" the answer is no because they have an exclusive contract with Sprint"
Could you source that for me, please? I believe that right now they _only_ have a contract with Sprint, but that it's not exclusive -- the distinction is material!
Hi, Selinkau --
If, so, a Tip O' The Hat to Talmoneef for one of the best rumours I've run across in a long time! The mixture of obscurity and specificity is just magic.
Hi, guys --
That should be, "What's the land worth right now."
Yahoo is so funny. They can't be bothered to do anything about the "great report!" spammers, but take it upon themselves to censor messages. #$%$ was originally #$%$, as in who-the-freak, and it was initials, not even spelled out.
Hi, guys --
The question is, what's the land worth right? The answer is, #$%$ knows, but here's a stab at it:
When developed, it would be worth:
3MM Sq ft * $60/rent * 10x rent roll = $1.8B
Construction cost is:
3MM sq ft * $250 = $.75B
Say a developer needs to make a 50% profit. They would pay:
$1.8B * .66 -$.75B for the land, or $.45B
I'd suggest hair-cutting that by another 50%, so call it $225MM.
So I dunno ... if forced to give a range, I'd guess the land is worth between $100M and $500MM.
Hi, Wonkko --
Thanks for the courteous reply.
1: I've been posting on Yahoo! Finance as rentierparasite since 1998.
2: mailfrommerrill is an email account I've set up to, you guessed it, receive confirms and suchlike from Merrill Lynch.
3: I don't recall saying "the land doesn't exist" -- could you point me to this?
4: I'm long NTE, not short.
Hi, guys --
Thanks for the responses, and a double tip o' the cap to you, smkros, for finding this on Google Maps!
The land is a rezoning story. I've personally been through and profited from rezoning a couple of times, in Downtown Brooklyn (Metrotech) and in tony Williamsburg. Rezoning can dramatically change land values. It's fun to speculate about. But here's all I know:
1: Nam Tai has 600k-650k sq feet of industrial land.
2: This is some 10 miles away from a major new development.
3: Koo says it's being rezoned for commercial development.
4: Koo says it's zoned for 3MM square feet.
-- and that's it. I wish I knew more. But I haven't been able find anything other than speculation. I'm not trying to be jerk here, I'd just like to get some better sources, e.g., smkros, you're valuing based on 3MM buildable square feet, but just because you *can* put 3MM feet doesn't mean anyone *will*. And, wonkko, " It is done. Money is already changing hands and fortune 500 companies are already lined up for real estate space.", sure, in Qianhai maybe, but that's not where the Nam Tai parcel is.
I own some NTE and might buy some more; better clarity on the real estate could change that "might" into a "will".
Hi, chan_lei_ha --
If you can get land in Shenzhen for only $20 square feet I think you should buy as much can afford.
That number came from an article by a Chinese academic on US/PRC relative factor prices -- the guys not a real estate broker, but it seemed credible. As always, I desire and accept correction.
Hard for predict China real estate market and how new Qianhai district do 3 year in future now.
Hi, guys --
So I've spent the last couple of days trying to get a handle on what Nam Tai's Bao'An property might be worth, and have concluded that,
A: Who knows? and
B: Anything more than, say $1/share is completely speculative.
I haven't been able to get the exact location in Google Maps, but it's somewhere around Gushu Station. Paste
Gushu, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
into Google Maps and you'll be in the right ballpark.
This is (currently!) a pretty slummy industrial area halfway between the airport and the docks. Industrial land in Shenzhen goes for ~$20/sq ft. This is getting rezoned and will hopefully participate in the (one hopes) success of Qianhai Bay development project, but what's it worth *right now*? Why would anyone say more than $100/ sq ft? Valuable Insights provides a comp sale:
On January 22nd Shenzhen Investment Ltd, a publicly traded company in Hong Kong announced that it was acquiring 122,000 square meters of RAW LAND approximately 1.3 million square feet, at this address in Shenzhen for $667 million according to Bloomberg - amazingly, shares closed up 17% on the news, suggesting this price is very attractive
, but that site is right next to Hong Kong -- this seems kind of like applying Brooklyn Heights prices to the South Bronx.
I'd love to believe that there's tons of hidden real estate value here; can anyone convince me?
Hi, guys --
But might look to get back in.
Hmm ...I was going to write something really long, but don't need to.
Hudson earned windfall profits in 2012 due to R-22 prices going up. The virgin allocation for 2013 is above that of 2012, and for 2014 is about the same. The windfall profit won't repeat this year or next. I mean I guess maybe it might if a 2012 supply shortfall was being met by hoarders finally selling/using that pallet they'd socked away in 2008 ... but who knows?
The longer term story is still speculative. Yeah, I see that R-22 is heading for, I dunno, $20/lb. But why, supply-chain wise, does the reclaimer get half of that? And what really are the barriers to entry? And R-22 reclamation is a melting ice cube anyway.
I'm disappointed in the news, because I thought HDSN had a good shot at running to $7.50 in the short term, which would have been great for me since it way my largest position.
Anybody got any primary research to justify owning HDSN at the current price?
Hi, guys --
Kiansoccerdude890:> Not if the Titanic company is split off like they have already set up months ago. They can sell THAT separate entity (a spin off) and thats that.
OK, I see what you're getting at. Right now RMS Titanic Inc. has a contract with Guernsey's to auction off the Titanic collection. PRXI spins off RMS Titanic Inc to the shareholders, and winning bidder gains control of the artifacts by buying the RMS Titanic stock instead of purchasing the artifacts directly (which is how Premiere got this stuff to begin with; the bought RMS Titanic Inc. sometime way back when). That could work. The problems I see are:
1: It's complicated to the point where a buyer might not want to deal with it. They'd be taking over a publicly traded corporation ... proxy solicitations, dissenter's rights, and on and on.
2: The buyer would own the artifacts at RMS Titanic's de minimus basis -- which might not matter if you're a non-profit.
3: Are you sure this would work? John Malone does stuff like this all the time, but this is devil-in-the-details territory, and I don't have a handle on the details.
trepanne:> rentierparasite's figures pretty much make sense... except you would deduct the company's cost basis, not accumulated deficit from operations.
The idea is that the losses would represent some sort of tax shield against the proceeds from the auction.
Hi, vaiorz14g --
> Shareholders would pay their capital gains only after they sell their stock. Unrelated event to the question of capital gains for the sale of titanic artifacts.
I completely agree. But the future price of the stock on which shareholders will pay capital gains depends a lot on how much taxes PRXI will have to pay on the sale of the Titanic artifacts. If PRXI pays zero or minimal tax (e.g., 15% long term capital gains), then the stock is (probably) worth a lot more than today's closing price. But if the proceeds are fully taxed, then, well, that's why I called this thread "Mispriced?"
Can anyone shed any light on this?
Hi, Kiansoccerdude890 --
> You dont get it. They would do a spinoff concurrently or beforehand. Why are u having so much trouble with this?
What I don't get it how a spinoff allows the company to avoid paying income taxes. Why should it? What's the connection? Abbot Labs is spinning off its pharma arm in 2012. Does that mean the pharma arm doesn't have to pay taxes? Or that the medical products side doesn't?