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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

rentierparasite 714 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 20, 2015 11:17 PM Member since: Apr 25, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Another phony stock buyback

    by strengtheng1neer Mar 3, 2015 12:45 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Mar 20, 2015 11:17 PM Flag

    Hi, Strengheng1neer --

    Agreed. And it's frustrating. But the long-term holders of the B shares -- which is to say, mostly the Rush family -- don't care about rational securities markets, and would quite likely say, "Well, if you're a long-term investor -- as we are! -- just buy the Bs and enjoy the discount!"

    Given the liquidity and the limitations around the buyback program, I don't think they could actual do much more than they're doing.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Accounting update.......

    by mercury.buster Jan 29, 2015 6:05 PM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Jan 30, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    So I was a _bit_ off. At least no I don't have to worry about those pesky capital gains taxes!

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Accounting update.......

    by mercury.buster Jan 29, 2015 6:05 PM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Jan 29, 2015 6:47 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    Unwelcome news, to say the least. I think my last post to this board boiled down to, "I'm piggybacking on Coloseum's (hopefully) superior knowledge and board seat, if not for that, I'd sell."

    I guess I still am.

    Any guesses where this opens tomorrow? I'm going for $16.31.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Energy Exposure

    by rentierparasite Jan 20, 2015 12:43 PM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Jan 20, 2015 3:24 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    I tossed on a bit more on the PR about NAV being ~$1.40. Oohh, look, now I'm day trader!

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Jan 20, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    I think the tankage is entirely attributable to their oil/gas/energy overweight. But at a 25% discount to NAV, the sell off seems a bit much, so I've taken a nibble.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Coliseum Capital Management, LLC now owns almost 10%

    by md841 Oct 7, 2014 8:58 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Oct 12, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    This is embarrassing to admit, but I think I'd be out of here if not for Coliseum's involvement. There are a lot of negatives:

    1: Restatement.
    2: The promise-to-delivery ratio is terrible.
    3: The CCS sales process is completely opaque and is taking way longer than anyone (well, me, anyway) would have thought possible.
    4: The clean energy space in general is a minefield of broken dreams and outright frauds.

    But Coliseum runs a pretty successful and very highly concentrated fund. I'm relying on their research, not as any kind of assurance of ultimate success, but rather as an indication that the multiple red flags aren't as bad as they look.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Sep 7, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    This is the cheapest stock I've seen for a long, long time. Granted, there are some reasons for that -- but not _that_ many reasons. I have no ability to make market timing calls, so I won't. This might be a fraud and go to zero, although there's absolutely no reason to think so. I own someone of this and have no problems waiting for as long as it takes for whatever's going to happen to happen.

    Any reasoned disagreement out there?

    And, for what it's worth:

    Go to

    set.or.th

    and check out :

    set/historicaltrading.do?language=EN&country=US&symbol=CTW

    (That's my way of working around Yahoo!'s #$%$ "no URLs" rule, we'll see if it works.)

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    This is the reason the stock is dead in the water

    by rosen62 Jun 30, 2014 7:13 PM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Jun 30, 2014 8:51 PM Flag

    Hi, Rosen62 --

    What are you afraid of Mr. Smulyan?

    Preferred shareholders and their minions?

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha negative article on Nsam

    by sahmnd01 Jun 29, 2014 11:30 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Jun 29, 2014 9:59 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    I know I'm wasting my time, but I sometimes enjoy wasting my time.

    Me: Cheerleaders can be funny, sometimes.

    newguy7001: As for Mr Santos, he and his 'short' friends will still be scratching their heads in disbelief.

    All he said was that NSAM is not a massive bargain. And he said that because, well, it isn't a massive bargain. I don't know ... good deal, sure, why not? Capable of producing outsized returns over time if things evolve favorably, sure, why not? But "massive bargain"? It's not a massive bargain. And actually, for current purposes, whether it's a massive bargain or not doesn't even matter, because how one gets from, "Dude said NSAM is not a massive bargain," to, "Dude's short NSAM," is a mystery that I don't care to understand.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Seeking Alpha negative article on Nsam

    by sahmnd01 Jun 29, 2014 11:30 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Jun 29, 2014 8:09 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    Cheerleaders can be funny, sometimes. Santos argues that NSAM isn't "a massive bargain", and that is somehow construed as being, "negative". I'd love to hear the case that NSAM is a "massive bargain"; if persuasively made, I might buy more.

    NRF was cheap at $8 or $9. Stupid cheap, because Hamamoto, et. al., were running around saying, "We're too cheap and here's what we're planning to do about it," and then went and did it, which is why the stock doubled in a year. I don't know what to say. The market has at this point been forced to acknowledge the undervaluation. How much juice can be left?

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Hungary Litigation

    by keyes_fred Mar 24, 2014 10:32 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Mar 25, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Hi, Keyes_fred --

    This could take a while; it looks like they're still arguing over jurisdiction.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Mar 13, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Hi., guys --

    I'm trying to remember if I've ever owned a more hated stock -- although obviously the massive insider dumping isn't helping much. I just don't see how this won't be looking _real_ cheap at $5/share 12 months from now.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Why is the stock only up 20 cents or so...

    by longtimefollower Mar 5, 2014 11:03 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Mar 8, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    It's a mystery to me, too. I've been worried that the price was lagging because the preferred suit was developing adversely, but obviously not. I dunno. The stock is up a lot off it's lows, and is tainted because of Smuylan and the screwing of the preferred holders. Both of these should fade from view over time.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Mar 6, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    I'm on a bus. Could someone summarize the conference call for me?

    My speculation on the management change is that the company is for sale.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Feb 10, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    My first impression is:

    1: Check our bank balances.

    2: Essentially a bunch of misdirection. The key bit is:

    "On July 3, 2009, Montage Technology (Shanghai) transferred its equity interest in SLMT,"

    , which Gravity agrees with; the issue, who was it transferred to?

    Any other thoughts?

    Yours,
    Bowd

  • Reply to

    Fully Valued?

    by rentierparasite Nov 17, 2013 8:01 PM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Nov 18, 2013 11:57 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    Thanks for the replies!

    Mercury.buster: "Figure ADES earns $150 million a year from RC for 8 years."

    OK. That's about $14 EPS. Stick that in a spreadsheet and see what kind of IRR you get at a $50 stock price. Then, for conservatism, zero out 2014 and see what comes out. I get 20% and 13%. Are those IRRs too high, too low? Maybe either way, but the numbers make some kind of sense.

    gorakrishna: "You have completely discounted MATS."

    Try the same IRR exercise.

    Also, step back for a sec and think about the implied returns on investment capital, which will be beyond phenomenal.

    To repeat, I'm not short and think (absent insider info or evidence of fraud), that you'd have to be insane to short this, because if the business plan works the stock is going a lothigher. But -- I've been invested since the Summer of 2012 with a cost basis around $20. At that entry price, you make money if the market ever _thinks_ the business would work. At today's price, the business actually _needs_ to work, which is an altogether different ball of wax.

    Yours,
    Chris

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Nov 17, 2013 8:01 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    So, _really_ roughly:

    -- Per management, all plants will be "in operation" by YE 2014. Note that's "in operation", not "sold", and that there's been some, ahh, slippage from past management forecasts.
    -- So call RC $10/share from 2015 through 2020. That's $50.
    -- There's of course more to the company than RC. But it looks like RC is pretty fully in the price.

    I of course understand that if ADES is putting out, say, $3-$4 in quarterly EPS in 2015, and the markets stay frothy, the stock is going a lot higher. But what's it worth?

    To forestall the usual attack-the-messenger stuff, I own this but am starting to think about moving to the sidelines.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Sep 25, 2013 12:56 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    According to Emmis IR, the contract with Sprint is not exclusive.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    KIll it boys ! I want some at $2.50

    by dalton880 Sep 20, 2013 10:59 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Sep 21, 2013 1:08 PM Flag

    Hi, p_n_p --

    " the answer is no because they have an exclusive contract with Sprint"

    Could you source that for me, please? I believe that right now they _only_ have a contract with Sprint, but that it's not exclusive -- the distinction is material!

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Saudi French Bank pre-IPO sell of AMAK shares

    by talmoneef May 6, 2013 3:49 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite May 6, 2013 9:48 PM Flag

    Hi, Selinkau --

    If, so, a Tip O' The Hat to Talmoneef for one of the best rumours I've run across in a long time! The mixture of obscurity and specificity is just magic.

    Yours,
    RP

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