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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

rentierparasite 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 25, 2014 10:16 AM Member since: Apr 25, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Hungary Litigation

    by keyes_fred Mar 24, 2014 10:32 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Mar 25, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Hi, Keyes_fred --

    This could take a while; it looks like they're still arguing over jurisdiction.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Mar 13, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Hi., guys --

    I'm trying to remember if I've ever owned a more hated stock -- although obviously the massive insider dumping isn't helping much. I just don't see how this won't be looking _real_ cheap at $5/share 12 months from now.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Why is the stock only up 20 cents or so...

    by longtimefollower Mar 5, 2014 11:03 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Mar 8, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    It's a mystery to me, too. I've been worried that the price was lagging because the preferred suit was developing adversely, but obviously not. I dunno. The stock is up a lot off it's lows, and is tainted because of Smuylan and the screwing of the preferred holders. Both of these should fade from view over time.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Mar 6, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    I'm on a bus. Could someone summarize the conference call for me?

    My speculation on the management change is that the company is for sale.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Feb 10, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    My first impression is:

    1: Check our bank balances.

    2: Essentially a bunch of misdirection. The key bit is:

    "On July 3, 2009, Montage Technology (Shanghai) transferred its equity interest in SLMT,"

    , which Gravity agrees with; the issue, who was it transferred to?

    Any other thoughts?

    Yours,
    Bowd

  • Reply to

    Fully Valued?

    by rentierparasite Nov 17, 2013 8:01 PM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Nov 18, 2013 11:57 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    Thanks for the replies!

    Mercury.buster: "Figure ADES earns $150 million a year from RC for 8 years."

    OK. That's about $14 EPS. Stick that in a spreadsheet and see what kind of IRR you get at a $50 stock price. Then, for conservatism, zero out 2014 and see what comes out. I get 20% and 13%. Are those IRRs too high, too low? Maybe either way, but the numbers make some kind of sense.

    gorakrishna: "You have completely discounted MATS."

    Try the same IRR exercise.

    Also, step back for a sec and think about the implied returns on investment capital, which will be beyond phenomenal.

    To repeat, I'm not short and think (absent insider info or evidence of fraud), that you'd have to be insane to short this, because if the business plan works the stock is going a lothigher. But -- I've been invested since the Summer of 2012 with a cost basis around $20. At that entry price, you make money if the market ever _thinks_ the business would work. At today's price, the business actually _needs_ to work, which is an altogether different ball of wax.

    Yours,
    Chris

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Nov 17, 2013 8:01 PM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    So, _really_ roughly:

    -- Per management, all plants will be "in operation" by YE 2014. Note that's "in operation", not "sold", and that there's been some, ahh, slippage from past management forecasts.
    -- So call RC $10/share from 2015 through 2020. That's $50.
    -- There's of course more to the company than RC. But it looks like RC is pretty fully in the price.

    I of course understand that if ADES is putting out, say, $3-$4 in quarterly EPS in 2015, and the markets stay frothy, the stock is going a lot higher. But what's it worth?

    To forestall the usual attack-the-messenger stuff, I own this but am starting to think about moving to the sidelines.

    Yours,
    RP

  • rentierparasite by rentierparasite Sep 25, 2013 12:56 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    According to Emmis IR, the contract with Sprint is not exclusive.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    KIll it boys ! I want some at $2.50

    by dalton880 Sep 20, 2013 10:59 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Sep 21, 2013 1:08 PM Flag

    Hi, p_n_p --

    " the answer is no because they have an exclusive contract with Sprint"

    Could you source that for me, please? I believe that right now they _only_ have a contract with Sprint, but that it's not exclusive -- the distinction is material!

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    Saudi French Bank pre-IPO sell of AMAK shares

    by talmoneef May 6, 2013 3:49 AM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite May 6, 2013 9:48 PM Flag

    Hi, Selinkau --

    If, so, a Tip O' The Hat to Talmoneef for one of the best rumours I've run across in a long time! The mixture of obscurity and specificity is just magic.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    NTE land development

    by pls418 Apr 29, 2013 10:41 PM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Apr 30, 2013 7:53 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    That should be, "What's the land worth right now."

    Yahoo is so funny. They can't be bothered to do anything about the "great report!" spammers, but take it upon themselves to censor messages. #$%$ was originally #$%$, as in who-the-freak, and it was initials, not even spelled out.

    Yours,
    RP

  • Reply to

    NTE land development

    by pls418 Apr 29, 2013 10:41 PM
    rentierparasite rentierparasite Apr 30, 2013 7:17 AM Flag

    Hi, guys --

    The question is, what's the land worth right? The answer is, #$%$ knows, but here's a stab at it:

    When developed, it would be worth:

    3MM Sq ft * $60/rent * 10x rent roll = $1.8B

    Construction cost is:

    3MM sq ft * $250 = $.75B

    Say a developer needs to make a 50% profit. They would pay:

    $1.8B * .66 -$.75B for the land, or $.45B

    I'd suggest hair-cutting that by another 50%, so call it $225MM.

    So I dunno ... if forced to give a range, I'd guess the land is worth between $100M and $500MM.

    Yours,
    RP

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